thoughts on belgia kaiser? are you going to play it.. good luck with russia and brasil
Thanks Alex! For the Belgium game, look at Post 32 - basically that still holds. I see Belgium winning but I'm not sure whether it will be close or not and also I have no feeling for the over/under. Only way I would play it would be in a two team parlay but I will stay away completely from this one.
thoughts on belgia kaiser? are you going to play it.. good luck with russia and brasil
Thanks Alex! For the Belgium game, look at Post 32 - basically that still holds. I see Belgium winning but I'm not sure whether it will be close or not and also I have no feeling for the over/under. Only way I would play it would be in a two team parlay but I will stay away completely from this one.
As you can see, there are quite some bets that are not looking too good at the moment. I consider the "Under 154.5 goals" to be as good as lost and further believe that the "England to not advance" and "Japan best team of rest of world" to be difficult to win, although not impossible.
I feel very good about the Müller and Neymar goal bets. From what we saw in the tournament the France to win their group and Bosnia to advance should also be winners. But to make further assessments it is necessary to await some more games. Just wanted to have a small recap so I (and people interested) know on what track I am here.
Of course the "Chile+Spain to advance" bet is already lost and since its already lost, I will include it as a loss immediately. That may look bad on the overall record, but just reflects reality. As soon as a long-term bet loses, I will adjust my record.
As you can see, there are quite some bets that are not looking too good at the moment. I consider the "Under 154.5 goals" to be as good as lost and further believe that the "England to not advance" and "Japan best team of rest of world" to be difficult to win, although not impossible.
I feel very good about the Müller and Neymar goal bets. From what we saw in the tournament the France to win their group and Bosnia to advance should also be winners. But to make further assessments it is necessary to await some more games. Just wanted to have a small recap so I (and people interested) know on what track I am here.
Of course the "Chile+Spain to advance" bet is already lost and since its already lost, I will include it as a loss immediately. That may look bad on the overall record, but just reflects reality. As soon as a long-term bet loses, I will adjust my record.
Kaiser, Only rounding the first corner of a 100 lap race. I've been following you since you first came on covers. I look for your daily posts as I do a morning coffee.
I don't think you will come out ahead this World Cup, I KNOW YOU WILL.
Kaiser, Only rounding the first corner of a 100 lap race. I've been following you since you first came on covers. I look for your daily posts as I do a morning coffee.
I don't think you will come out ahead this World Cup, I KNOW YOU WILL.
Thanks guys, the post wasn't meant to cry about misfortune or something like that, just a realistic summary of what has happened so far. And you know, Germans take pleasure in finding the negative things in life.
Yesterday:
Colombia Over 2.5 @ 2.15 (1/10)
Overall: 13-13 +1.78 Units
Today:
France ML @ 1.80 (1/10)
Well I'm not too happy with this bet, as the odds have risen quite a bit since I placed this bet. Switzerland was lucky to get away with a w in the first game, France absolutely dominated - although the opponent made it very easy. I still see France winning this one as well, not only because they have "good players", they had those during WC 2010 as well - but the team chemistry seems better now. I see a team playing on the field and not just a bunch of individually skilled players. The coach knows why he left Nasri in France I guess. I see a close France win coming up here.
Ecuador-Honduras, Under 2.5 @ 2.05 (1.5/10)
From what we saw in the game against France, Honduras is not able to create anything upfront, their only aim was to defend and play physically. While France may be better than Ecuador, I don't see that "gameplan" or what you would call that changing against Ecuador. Moreover, Ecuador wasn't as dangerous as I expected before the Swiss game. I believe we are going to see an ugly game, which Ecuador should win sooner or later. However, once they have the 1-0 I think they will settle for that and refrain from risking a lot more (also in terms of injuries, we saw how aggressive Honduras is). I see a final score of around 1-0, 2-0 - possibly even a 0-0 draw.
Thanks guys, the post wasn't meant to cry about misfortune or something like that, just a realistic summary of what has happened so far. And you know, Germans take pleasure in finding the negative things in life.
Yesterday:
Colombia Over 2.5 @ 2.15 (1/10)
Overall: 13-13 +1.78 Units
Today:
France ML @ 1.80 (1/10)
Well I'm not too happy with this bet, as the odds have risen quite a bit since I placed this bet. Switzerland was lucky to get away with a w in the first game, France absolutely dominated - although the opponent made it very easy. I still see France winning this one as well, not only because they have "good players", they had those during WC 2010 as well - but the team chemistry seems better now. I see a team playing on the field and not just a bunch of individually skilled players. The coach knows why he left Nasri in France I guess. I see a close France win coming up here.
Ecuador-Honduras, Under 2.5 @ 2.05 (1.5/10)
From what we saw in the game against France, Honduras is not able to create anything upfront, their only aim was to defend and play physically. While France may be better than Ecuador, I don't see that "gameplan" or what you would call that changing against Ecuador. Moreover, Ecuador wasn't as dangerous as I expected before the Swiss game. I believe we are going to see an ugly game, which Ecuador should win sooner or later. However, once they have the 1-0 I think they will settle for that and refrain from risking a lot more (also in terms of injuries, we saw how aggressive Honduras is). I see a final score of around 1-0, 2-0 - possibly even a 0-0 draw.
France ML @ 1.80 (1/10) Honduras-Ecuador Under 2.5 @ 2.15 (1,5/10)
Overall: 15-14 +2.23 Units
Today:
Bosnia ML @ 1.86 (2/10)
This will be my only play of the day, Bosnia has a strong squad and an especially strong offense. Ibisevic is such a great striker, someone who scores around 15 goals on a regular basis in the Bundesliga. Nigeria clearly is a limited team, physically strong and athletic, but unable to create dangerous chances. While I expect a somewhat boring game sooner or later Bosnia will be able to create a chance that one of their offensive players will convert. Iran had some decent opportunities so I fully expect Bosnia's strong offense to do better than that and win.
When it comes to the Germany play, I would be careful guys. I really expect them to not cover the line today. First, Ghana is a really difficult opponent and we had some major problems with them in 2010. I expect a more difficult game than the one against Portugal. Not because of the red card etc, but Portugal is just a team we love to play, their playing style suits us much better than Ghana. Ghana will play with Boateng and Essien today and it was visible how much better their game got as soon as Boateng got in.
Hummels will probably play but he and Boateng won't be at 100% I believe. Germany usually grows with the opponents and often does not much more than they need to. In WC 2010, after we beat Austrlia in the first game - we lost the second against Serbia. Don't think we will lose today, but I wouldn't lay the -1.5. I see a close 1-0, possibly even a tie, coming up.
Although the climate was not as big of an issue as I expected so far, we play in Fortaleza today and given that some of our players are not at 100% (Khedira, Hummels, Boateng) I would argue that this should nonetheless be an advantage to Ghana. If Germany leads 1-0, I don't see why they should go for the second. Against Portugal they also didn't do crap in second half, but Portugal just played so lousy it was difficult not to score.
France ML @ 1.80 (1/10) Honduras-Ecuador Under 2.5 @ 2.15 (1,5/10)
Overall: 15-14 +2.23 Units
Today:
Bosnia ML @ 1.86 (2/10)
This will be my only play of the day, Bosnia has a strong squad and an especially strong offense. Ibisevic is such a great striker, someone who scores around 15 goals on a regular basis in the Bundesliga. Nigeria clearly is a limited team, physically strong and athletic, but unable to create dangerous chances. While I expect a somewhat boring game sooner or later Bosnia will be able to create a chance that one of their offensive players will convert. Iran had some decent opportunities so I fully expect Bosnia's strong offense to do better than that and win.
When it comes to the Germany play, I would be careful guys. I really expect them to not cover the line today. First, Ghana is a really difficult opponent and we had some major problems with them in 2010. I expect a more difficult game than the one against Portugal. Not because of the red card etc, but Portugal is just a team we love to play, their playing style suits us much better than Ghana. Ghana will play with Boateng and Essien today and it was visible how much better their game got as soon as Boateng got in.
Hummels will probably play but he and Boateng won't be at 100% I believe. Germany usually grows with the opponents and often does not much more than they need to. In WC 2010, after we beat Austrlia in the first game - we lost the second against Serbia. Don't think we will lose today, but I wouldn't lay the -1.5. I see a close 1-0, possibly even a tie, coming up.
Although the climate was not as big of an issue as I expected so far, we play in Fortaleza today and given that some of our players are not at 100% (Khedira, Hummels, Boateng) I would argue that this should nonetheless be an advantage to Ghana. If Germany leads 1-0, I don't see why they should go for the second. Against Portugal they also didn't do crap in second half, but Portugal just played so lousy it was difficult not to score.
I agree with you about Germany. Many people think Müller and Co play the way they did against portugal. But im almost sure that we see a match that is much closer than one would think.
I even think that Germany might draw this one. In 2008 they lost the second match of the tournament against croatia - a terrible match. In 2010 we lost the second match against serbia - a terrible match. Why shouldnt this trend continue. As you said, they trend to grow with their opponent.
I think this match can show something very important about the german strength. If they can win this one CONVINCINGLY, a 2-0 or 3-0, i really think Germany can win it all. If they are still the team that they were in 2008, 2010 or 2012, Germany will have a bad game today. And they dont win the world cup. This is my theory. I hope we see a 4-1 today, but I think it will be a 1-1 draw Enjoy the match!
I agree with you about Germany. Many people think Müller and Co play the way they did against portugal. But im almost sure that we see a match that is much closer than one would think.
I even think that Germany might draw this one. In 2008 they lost the second match of the tournament against croatia - a terrible match. In 2010 we lost the second match against serbia - a terrible match. Why shouldnt this trend continue. As you said, they trend to grow with their opponent.
I think this match can show something very important about the german strength. If they can win this one CONVINCINGLY, a 2-0 or 3-0, i really think Germany can win it all. If they are still the team that they were in 2008, 2010 or 2012, Germany will have a bad game today. And they dont win the world cup. This is my theory. I hope we see a 4-1 today, but I think it will be a 1-1 draw Enjoy the match!
I agree with you about Germany. Many people think Müller and Co play the way they did against portugal. But im almost sure that we see a match that is much closer than one would think.
I even think that Germany might draw this one. In 2008 they lost the second match of the tournament against croatia - a terrible match. In 2010 we lost the second match against serbia - a terrible match. Why shouldnt this trend continue. As you said, they trend to grow with their opponent.
I think this match can show something very important about the german strength. If they can win this one CONVINCINGLY, a 2-0 or 3-0, i really think Germany can win it all. If they are still the team that they were in 2008, 2010 or 2012, Germany will have a bad game today. And they dont win the world cup. This is my theory. I hope we see a 4-1 today, but I think it will be a 1-1 draw Enjoy the match!
Well said
Even though I hate to admit it, both Kaiser and you are accurate in your assessment.
I agree with you about Germany. Many people think Müller and Co play the way they did against portugal. But im almost sure that we see a match that is much closer than one would think.
I even think that Germany might draw this one. In 2008 they lost the second match of the tournament against croatia - a terrible match. In 2010 we lost the second match against serbia - a terrible match. Why shouldnt this trend continue. As you said, they trend to grow with their opponent.
I think this match can show something very important about the german strength. If they can win this one CONVINCINGLY, a 2-0 or 3-0, i really think Germany can win it all. If they are still the team that they were in 2008, 2010 or 2012, Germany will have a bad game today. And they dont win the world cup. This is my theory. I hope we see a 4-1 today, but I think it will be a 1-1 draw Enjoy the match!
Well said
Even though I hate to admit it, both Kaiser and you are accurate in your assessment.
You know I'm not the guy to say I knew it after a game is over. But that game against Ghana was just destined to disappoint. Despite most of my countrymen, I wouldn't say that this is a bad result, I am quite satisfied with a draw, leaves us all options to advance. I'm so happy for Klose, would have been more happy if he had scored the third goal but I'm sure he will get the record sooner or later.
I'm more disappointed in Bosnia, too bad they weren't able to unlock their full potential, cost me quite some money both on the game but also on the prop bets:
Bosnia ML @ 1.86 (2/10)
Bosnia to advance @ 1.85 (1/10) Arg 1st, Bos 2nd @ 2.10 (1/10)
Overall: 15-17 -1.77 Units
Today:
Belgium-Russia, Belgium ML @ 2.16 (1/10)
I was not impressed at all by Russia's performance against South Korea, they definately need to get a result today and I think now that the pressure on Belgium has lifted a bit they can make more out of their offensive abilities. Also Russia's playing style should be more to the liking of Belgium as compared to Algeria. At plus money I will back Belgium.
Portugal-USA, Portugal ML @ 1.70 (3/10)
Well I definately locked in this one too early as odds are well above 1.80, but since I locked it in at 1.70, it's only fair not to change it. I am very convinced that Portugal will take this one, although I don't like it. The game against Germany did not portray what Portugal is able to do and to be fair, the victory against Ghana was quite lucky for the us. I'm concerned about Beasley, how he wants to defend Nani or even Ronaldo in case he switches sides from time to time. Overall I think USA won't be able get something tonight, but I wouldn't mind if I'm proven wrong.
You know I'm not the guy to say I knew it after a game is over. But that game against Ghana was just destined to disappoint. Despite most of my countrymen, I wouldn't say that this is a bad result, I am quite satisfied with a draw, leaves us all options to advance. I'm so happy for Klose, would have been more happy if he had scored the third goal but I'm sure he will get the record sooner or later.
I'm more disappointed in Bosnia, too bad they weren't able to unlock their full potential, cost me quite some money both on the game but also on the prop bets:
Bosnia ML @ 1.86 (2/10)
Bosnia to advance @ 1.85 (1/10) Arg 1st, Bos 2nd @ 2.10 (1/10)
Overall: 15-17 -1.77 Units
Today:
Belgium-Russia, Belgium ML @ 2.16 (1/10)
I was not impressed at all by Russia's performance against South Korea, they definately need to get a result today and I think now that the pressure on Belgium has lifted a bit they can make more out of their offensive abilities. Also Russia's playing style should be more to the liking of Belgium as compared to Algeria. At plus money I will back Belgium.
Portugal-USA, Portugal ML @ 1.70 (3/10)
Well I definately locked in this one too early as odds are well above 1.80, but since I locked it in at 1.70, it's only fair not to change it. I am very convinced that Portugal will take this one, although I don't like it. The game against Germany did not portray what Portugal is able to do and to be fair, the victory against Ghana was quite lucky for the us. I'm concerned about Beasley, how he wants to defend Nani or even Ronaldo in case he switches sides from time to time. Overall I think USA won't be able get something tonight, but I wouldn't mind if I'm proven wrong.
Kaiser, No worries for Germany. Since 1950, we have qualified for the knockout stage every World Cup. I was very happy to see Klose score, and happier to see Basten back.
Kaiser, No worries for Germany. Since 1950, we have qualified for the knockout stage every World Cup. I was very happy to see Klose score, and happier to see Basten back.
Kaiser, No worries for Germany. Since 1950, we have qualified for the knockout stage every World Cup. I was very happy to see Klose score, and happier to see Basten back.
BOL today
Agreed Franz, no worries on my side either.
Adding: USA-Portugal, Portugal ML @ 1.90 (2/10)
That makes it a 5 Unit play and the biggest play of the year for me so far. Please don't take it as an offense, but as I liked Portugal at odds of 1.70 - I feel obliged to add some units when the odds are 1.90. I posted some additional thoughts on this matchup in scalabrine's thread. Basically key issues are the wing-matchups, lack of offensive creativity on US side (which I expect today) and an apparent public misperception of Portugal's abilities stemming from the Germany game. We will see a different Portugal squad tonight and most likely a more balanced Ronaldo as well.
Kaiser, No worries for Germany. Since 1950, we have qualified for the knockout stage every World Cup. I was very happy to see Klose score, and happier to see Basten back.
BOL today
Agreed Franz, no worries on my side either.
Adding: USA-Portugal, Portugal ML @ 1.90 (2/10)
That makes it a 5 Unit play and the biggest play of the year for me so far. Please don't take it as an offense, but as I liked Portugal at odds of 1.70 - I feel obliged to add some units when the odds are 1.90. I posted some additional thoughts on this matchup in scalabrine's thread. Basically key issues are the wing-matchups, lack of offensive creativity on US side (which I expect today) and an apparent public misperception of Portugal's abilities stemming from the Germany game. We will see a different Portugal squad tonight and most likely a more balanced Ronaldo as well.
Mexico has the very best goalkeeper there is today.
Belgium has always been the Boogieman of Russia !!
Prussia, the roots of Germany, will again carry the day toward Nederland en België to win it all - Those Prussians are of course LukasPodolski + M.J. Klose.
Klose ("Germany") will hold 1st place for FIFA WC goals scored by the end of this WC 2014...
Algeria will dominate Korea in 45 minutes from right now...
Mexico has the very best goalkeeper there is today.
Belgium has always been the Boogieman of Russia !!
Prussia, the roots of Germany, will again carry the day toward Nederland en België to win it all - Those Prussians are of course LukasPodolski + M.J. Klose.
Klose ("Germany") will hold 1st place for FIFA WC goals scored by the end of this WC 2014...
Algeria will dominate Korea in 45 minutes from right now...
Ouch, lost my biggest wager of the year so far and deserved the loss to the fullest. But looking at my future bets that are still pending, I feel comfortable in saying that I should end this WC in the green. Congrats to Klinsi and team for another convincing effort. But do not dare to try something funny against Germany!
Overall: 16-18 -6.61 Units
Pending Future Bets:
Australia to finish with 0 points @ 2.37 (1/10)
1st Brazil/2nd Croatia @ 2.40 (1/10)
Will have to sweat that Spain game out, do not like it but I have no choice. I'm not going to hedge out of this bet after having reached 2/3 of the goal. My gutfeeling says this one loses today though, something for Australia to show whereas Spain should be counting the minutes until their flight to Europe.
The Croatia bet is promising for an exciting game and although I'm a little bif in a disadvantage here, I'm looking forward to this game.
Chile-Netherlands
Chile +0 @ 1.96 (2/10) Over 2.5 @ 1.87 (2/10)
Netherlands only need a draw for 1st place. But the Dutch defense is vulnerable and so they surely won't rely on holding a tie, almost no team has been succesfull in doing so this WC, so I don't expect it here. I see Chile as the favorite in this one simply because I'm not convinced of the Netherlands yet, especially not their defense. Spain apparently was a complete no-show and 2 goals conceded against Australia is a warning signal. Both teams should score and I expect Chile to allow less than Oranje, final score could be a 2-1 for Chile.
Ouch, lost my biggest wager of the year so far and deserved the loss to the fullest. But looking at my future bets that are still pending, I feel comfortable in saying that I should end this WC in the green. Congrats to Klinsi and team for another convincing effort. But do not dare to try something funny against Germany!
Overall: 16-18 -6.61 Units
Pending Future Bets:
Australia to finish with 0 points @ 2.37 (1/10)
1st Brazil/2nd Croatia @ 2.40 (1/10)
Will have to sweat that Spain game out, do not like it but I have no choice. I'm not going to hedge out of this bet after having reached 2/3 of the goal. My gutfeeling says this one loses today though, something for Australia to show whereas Spain should be counting the minutes until their flight to Europe.
The Croatia bet is promising for an exciting game and although I'm a little bif in a disadvantage here, I'm looking forward to this game.
Chile-Netherlands
Chile +0 @ 1.96 (2/10) Over 2.5 @ 1.87 (2/10)
Netherlands only need a draw for 1st place. But the Dutch defense is vulnerable and so they surely won't rely on holding a tie, almost no team has been succesfull in doing so this WC, so I don't expect it here. I see Chile as the favorite in this one simply because I'm not convinced of the Netherlands yet, especially not their defense. Spain apparently was a complete no-show and 2 goals conceded against Australia is a warning signal. Both teams should score and I expect Chile to allow less than Oranje, final score could be a 2-1 for Chile.
Netherlands-Mexico, Mexico to advance @ 2.73 (2/10)
Costa Rica-Greece, Greece to advance @ 2.15 (1/10)
Parlay :
Germany + France + Belgium @ 2.04 (3/10)
I know Brazil has gotten better and especially more dangerous on the offensive end, but let's not forget that playing good when the pressure is somewhat off is something entirely different from playing good in the knockout round - against Chile. Chile is one of the few teams that I consider to be a positive note of this World Cup. In the end I have no doubt Brazil will advance one way or the other, but I see this a very tight match. And although it has rained goals so far - I believe this trend will stop now in the knockout stage. Mexico has been a perfect example of what this game could look like. Possibly also the Croatia game which very well could have gone under, but let's forget about that. Getting the Under 2.5 at plus money here is something I cannot pass up on, no matter how good the offense might be. After all, the key difference to group stage plays is it's not about goal difference or points anymore, it's only about advancing. And that translates to less risk being taken, more players rotating back, and more pressure on each player to first fulfill defensive duty. I see a tie or a close Brazil win coming up.
Oh how I love that Mexico play. I admit and say it without shame, I was dead wrong on this team. And I was also wrong on my assessment of the Netherlands, well kind of. Truth is they have earned 9 points, but they are not playing a level of football that would reflect that, honestly. It has been all about quick counterattacks in the shape of long balls destined to Arjen Robben who just does brilliant stuff with the ball. Especially Robben and v.Persie are the reason things have gone well so far, but the defense is still nowhere near high quality and given that Mexico has shown a brilliant TEAM effort so far, especially on the defensive end - they only conceded 1 goal so far in the last game - I don't see the Dutch strategy working out here. While I wouldn't go as far as saying Mexico should be favorite, I simply see value at odds of 2.73 and ride with one of the surprise teams.
Greece-Costa Rica. Greece actually improved throughout the course of their games and I believe they deserved to advance. Of course that also goes for Costa Rica but I wonder if they should be glad to have gotten Greece. After all, Costa Rica took out "big" teams able to play good football - Greece is a team that usually puts defense first for obvious reasons. I think Greece is a very bad matchup for Costa Rica, they would be better of being the underdog and relying on quick counterattacks - I think this game will be pure fight and we've seen in the last game that those are the type of games where Greece can bring it's "Alpha" game.
Netherlands-Mexico, Mexico to advance @ 2.73 (2/10)
Costa Rica-Greece, Greece to advance @ 2.15 (1/10)
Parlay :
Germany + France + Belgium @ 2.04 (3/10)
I know Brazil has gotten better and especially more dangerous on the offensive end, but let's not forget that playing good when the pressure is somewhat off is something entirely different from playing good in the knockout round - against Chile. Chile is one of the few teams that I consider to be a positive note of this World Cup. In the end I have no doubt Brazil will advance one way or the other, but I see this a very tight match. And although it has rained goals so far - I believe this trend will stop now in the knockout stage. Mexico has been a perfect example of what this game could look like. Possibly also the Croatia game which very well could have gone under, but let's forget about that. Getting the Under 2.5 at plus money here is something I cannot pass up on, no matter how good the offense might be. After all, the key difference to group stage plays is it's not about goal difference or points anymore, it's only about advancing. And that translates to less risk being taken, more players rotating back, and more pressure on each player to first fulfill defensive duty. I see a tie or a close Brazil win coming up.
Oh how I love that Mexico play. I admit and say it without shame, I was dead wrong on this team. And I was also wrong on my assessment of the Netherlands, well kind of. Truth is they have earned 9 points, but they are not playing a level of football that would reflect that, honestly. It has been all about quick counterattacks in the shape of long balls destined to Arjen Robben who just does brilliant stuff with the ball. Especially Robben and v.Persie are the reason things have gone well so far, but the defense is still nowhere near high quality and given that Mexico has shown a brilliant TEAM effort so far, especially on the defensive end - they only conceded 1 goal so far in the last game - I don't see the Dutch strategy working out here. While I wouldn't go as far as saying Mexico should be favorite, I simply see value at odds of 2.73 and ride with one of the surprise teams.
Greece-Costa Rica. Greece actually improved throughout the course of their games and I believe they deserved to advance. Of course that also goes for Costa Rica but I wonder if they should be glad to have gotten Greece. After all, Costa Rica took out "big" teams able to play good football - Greece is a team that usually puts defense first for obvious reasons. I think Greece is a very bad matchup for Costa Rica, they would be better of being the underdog and relying on quick counterattacks - I think this game will be pure fight and we've seen in the last game that those are the type of games where Greece can bring it's "Alpha" game.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.