WC 2022 futures....

Great analysis spec, BOL this WC. Hope all is well! 

Thanks, as always Spec. Looking forward to a great tourney. 

Spec always a pleasure to see you back and reading your quality material.  You helped me cut my teeth in footie action by reading and learning.  You have been missed, hope all is well with you and yours!

Good to see you back posting Spec.  I have missed your presence around the forum.  I am a frequent visitor and seldom post, but I always look for your posts. 

I have a question regarding how you see the match between England and Iran playing out tomorrow morning?  I saw a short writeup about you thoughts but wanted to dig a little deepers.  Do you see England dominating position and getting some shots, but perhaps not quality shots?  I have a couple of props I was eyeing on this match, over 16.5 shots for England (just attempts) seems a bit high perhaps but if they dominate possession who knows.  And, Iran fouls at 13.5 and Iran tackles at 18.5.  What are your thoughts if you don't mind sharing.  Thank you.  

Nice to see you back my friend 

hope you’re doing well n your family as well

im now in Canada, so I will be rooting for them 

morocco and Canada are my two dark horses, unfortunately they’re in the same group

Good luck, hope to see you post more often 

Ben good to hear from you and hope all is well

Ganda, ciao!! been a while i know. life been busy and everything been good. interesting season with the schedule being as is. did you ever get the chance to visit home? i remember you were talking about it back earlier in year. hope all is well with the family.
regarding your Waffles, wont go into detail/in depth but when bunch of us all got together to discuss this WC, when it came to Belgium at end of day (so to speak) just had more questions than answers. a deep run possible? yes. knocked out in groups possible? yes.
your last sentence (Roberto)? at least youre there. (thats all i can say). good luck the next few weeks. im assuming you put that 50 metre flag over roof of house. right?

szhcik true. keep hearing media talking about how "wide open" it is this year. it isnt. there still are only 6-7 countries with a shot at lifting the trophy (just like any other previous WC). upsets will happen and some cinderella will advance. how is this any different than any other WC we've ever watched? thats why I avoid media. 3/4 of them have never even laced up the boots.

I-got, was curious if that show any good? thanks for for posting it.

Big - appreciate it. didnt realize how long it was till starting posting and got cut off with character limit all time

Barney, no worries. thanks for posting. i just didnt bother editing. (should have). but everyone knew Sadios status heading into this. what many dont realize is Dusans status when he left Turin to join his team, it was definitely bothering him during practice sessions. Serbs have been keeping quiet about it. groin injuries dont heal overnight.

BigD, hope all is well 

Doc, that line on Waffles spiralling. think ill take a pass on that. Moroccans one of darkhorses too.

And, hope all is well with self/fam too. GL these next few weeks.

tsizz, well, i dont know about 'great'. with this being around the holidays, might miss a few. cazzo! winner wont even be able to celebrate in the traditional sense with many players having to report back to their clubs barely a week later.

KJ, appreciate it. hope all is well with self/fam. not a 100% capper...been stuck in the mud with Serie A all season thus far. sandwiches decent but quite a few trends have blown up in face cause of the scheduling.

fest (see below)

yoro, honestly havent seen much of concaf squads, and when one has gone though life witessing greeces run in euros you learn to never write anyone off completely.

Monday:
England/Iran - as always, the 'tried & true' trend of every WC, this is the first of what looks like 7 200+ juiced favs for the opening round. tempted to just blindly take all the +HC for each; but with juice attached to lot of the '+' lines, id advise just choosing ur spots. 4 years ago 6 of the 8 didnt cover (cazzo!!!, 3 of them didnt even win).
give any coach 6 months to prepare for a single opponent and he will/should have something to slow them down, cause thats what they get paid for. problems usually start for them in the 2nd/3rd rounds on short turnarounds.
getting a point would be massive, but losing by one is golden too. then they can leave it up to the other two to keep the scoreline close when playing them. going down a goal wont change the flow of this match. which will basically be on one side of the pitch anyways. Iran +1.5 @-120

festivus, a little pressed with time but ill answer. Lions dominating possession? yes. Iran are a major bus-park, not to say they dont have skills up front but their style is frustrating to play against. and me being the type whom really enjoys watching a good, structured defense with 11 guys fully understanding their roles and shifting. 4 years ago their entire roster played domestically, fast forward and half that roster now with european clubs. Holland, EPL, Bunde, Liga, Primeira; perhaps not the 'big-boy' clubs but scouts have picked up on the talent level coming out of there. the thing which is impressive with them is they dont foul much (just 2 yellows each vs Spain-Portugal previous WC).
Lions O16.5 attempts? thats a tough one. i do remember Euros, Lions won posession battle in each group match but didnt reach 10 attempts in any of them. Gareth sure does like his possession %. but those 8 MF Southgate has on his roster, just on memory alone... im counting 5 of them whom have zero problems with sending lasers from outside the box which end up in the 10th row. Harry & Raheem are always screaming at them. but if youre going to play that kind of prop, you at least better make sure your MF's have the green light to uncork them from 25-30 metres out. its the only way youre going to hit that. put a gun to me and i say under. but you really shouldnt be asking me for advice about the Lions. (seriously) 

Senegal/Netherlands - PASS. tempted to take the card prop with the Brazilian working his first WC but since nobody likes having a yellow hanging around their head after 1st match ill wait.

USA/Wales - PASS.

Wednesday: small combo for fun with Saudis/Aus +1.5 @+395. not touching Danes.

Mexico/Poland - our futures with Poland centered pretty much around this matchup so dont really need to do anything here. and with Poland facing the Gauchos last, they might be content with just the point in the opener and see how Mexico does vs Lionel & Friends. keeping in mind, Gauchos collect 2 straight wins theyll send the bench out vs Poland. im avoiding the outrights and just go with Poland pick @+104 here.

gl to all

early start, have some time so toss up a little info.. not doing much 1st round. with bunch futures tied in, no need to.  didnt take long for the Lions TT to blow up in face; but got the Saudis (go figure).  the two big props (offsides + yellows) are off to a flying start. 

Any plays for today, my friend 

yoro   i think that got cut off.     heading out for the afternoon so quickly here.  

Hang tough, that first win will come.

Damn my friend, I wanna cry when Davies missed that pk, it will be a totally different story if they scored that……but it’s what it is, hopefully they’re not going to be gassed and keep that high press attack going against Croatia 

good luck 

yoro  not to take anything away from Canada, i felt they played really well actually. play in the final 1/3 lacked finishing but they had the Waffles pinned back in their own end quite often.  sitting here thinking 'this is....supposedly... the 2nd ranked team on the planet'.  and is it me or did Kev look disinterested?  thats why people shouldnt put too much weight on FIFAs flawed ranking system. #3 just lost.  (h*ll, come to think of it....#6 isnt even here. laughing). Canada deserved a point there.

with bunch of futures in both these last groups not much need to do and just see how it unfolds. 2 more 200+ juiced up favs going on thursday. going lightly again. thoughts /plays for final 4 matches this round
Switzerland/Cameroon - smells like this finishes level. going to take another card prop with the O4.5 @+122 as yet another newbie to the Intl stage.

Uruguay/Korea - along with Lew & Dusan, i have that goal prop with Nunez somewhere. Klopp liked him enough after the UCL KOs last year to sign him. and with Uruguays aging strikers unable to put in a 3 in 9 days he should get a bunch of minutes where hes the primary option . but this is too tough to call, and since its the opener, can see both playing it tight, but can also see the btts hitting easily. PASS.

Ghana +1/2 @+215, O2.5 @-108 - same as opening writeup,  and along with that, Fernandos side has conceded in 6 of past 7 WC games. btts is too juiced, if the CAF side can find back of net will get something out of this.

Brazil/Serbia - have had long enough discussions on this. had this been their 3rd match in need of points Id have zero problems backing them w/out even thinking about it. but its the opener, and tho Serbs definitely have the style with a big, physical frontline and pitbulls in the middle to frustrate and even get something out of it judging from Dragans interview im not entirely sure if he is going to try to come at them with what looks like 5 across the park. lost 2-0 previous WC but that match was still tight well into the hour mark; double digit attempts and were knocking Tites squad all over the pitch; and theyre much better than 4 years ago. with a bunch of futures coming out of this group im leaving this one alone. truth of the matter is a GD of -1 is golden for them as well. put the pressure on those other two teams to deal with Flopper & Friends.
on a side note, its one thing to head into the WC with little expectations and do well. but we all witnessed the sending off they received, entire country will shut down thursday night ; this is the best squad theyve ever have assembled and they know it, now they have to live up to it and with those high expectations.... you get THIS opponent in your opener?? that first half hour is going to be incredibly important for them. PASS

mumbai, already hit a few futures dumbcluck, including Saudis TT. and 1st rounders are always light. now go back to your other username. 

Hey spec, any thoughts/insights for 2nd round???

spec - thanks for all the info and insight you post.  always a great read.

yoro    apologies.  havent really taken on as many plays as with previous WC's.  interesting first few rounds. 

dya   appreciate the kind words and thanks for stopping by.  

have a bit of time, just toss up whats been discussed and plays for final 3rd round.  needless to say, happy as a duck in water with how things have unfolded. 

Round 3:

all right guys, the first two coming up next week (just copying as reminder)
- goose eggs in the GF column (keep this in the back on your melons come 3rd matches; nobody enjoys going home with a goose egg. Algeria + Honduras (2010); Trinidad (2006) were the last countries whom flew back home ashamed. its a huge motivating factor, do not underestimate this. toss out the old one, add the latest. now 11-3 past 4 WCs, sweeping all 4 in '18.
Tunisia to score @-120 (wednesday)
Mexico - team total too juiced. taking score in both halves @+146 and they actually still have a shot at advancing. jumping on the game O2.5 @-120  for the game(wednesday). Lionel just scored and Gauchos dominating. Tri will have to score minimum 3 to advance. Unless you think Poland can win vs Gauchos, otherwise this should be a wide open match.
***edit*** adding Uruguay TT O1.5 @-115
combo all 3 for fun @+137

fading the 200 juice favs on teh 1.5 working like a charm again having gone 5-3 with plays through KOs (6-4 overall).

Group A: applicable futures:
Qatar to concede in all their matches @-117
Netherlands 2nd half goals O3.5 @+115 (groups). currently at 2.

Qatar/Netherlands - van Gaals squad advanced regardless but should be keen to get the 3 points and stay on that right side of the bracket in KOs. Qatar playing for pride. hope FIFA learned their lesson. might make play on 2nd half under depending on halftime. with the way the hosts have played defense I wouldnt touch the +1.5. PASS.

Ecuador/Senegal O1.5 @+145 (2nd half) cause i love taking CAF sides when need to toss kitchen sinks forward. 

Group B: applicable futures:
Iran to qualify @+300, Iran eliminated in R16 @+600
Group B: England, Iran @+800
USA total conceded O3.5 @-120 (groups)

USA/Iran - im not leaving 45+ on table. USA to win @+108. thoughts: when you have a young side, best opponent to play is one where you dont have to worry about one side of the pitch. Iran wont think (or even care about) crossing midfield. and as we discussed I just dont think USA has the technical skills to break these guys down; if they do? it will come from a set piece. get the point and Iran (should) be through. Antonio is going to be busy in this one,im suprised books hanging the 4.5 at this number next week?  O4.5 cards @-128

Wales/England - yet another 200 juiced favorite goes off. running the slight risk of the props blowing up in my face if Welsh side grab all 3; theyll overtake Iran if that one ends level. and since Lions dont need to do a d*mn thing, they might play that way. keep yellows down, stay healthy, and get through. Lions stuck a pitchfork up my backside banging in 6 in the opener, so they owe us one. (laughing) Hopefully they grab an early lead and coast so we can put the Alka-Seltzers away. as Arthur mentioned, tho they may be neighbors/rivals in the UK the Welsh side hasnt had much success vs them and this match basically is an EPL squad playing a the lower leagues in England; on a neutral field too. so taking the +1.5 isnt worth the juice. and if Gareth starts Phil, youll know his intentions/approach towards this match in regards to finding the net. PASS.

Group C: applicable futures:
Poland O3.5 goals @-118 (groups), to advance @-110
Lewandowski O1.5 @-111 (groups)
- Lews missed PK might end up biting us in the backside, could have already swept all 3. I need to leave this group alone. you can make a good case of the Gauchos running circles around Poland and thumping them, eliminating them outright or via GD. on the other game, you can make a case of either those other two winning that one.

Poland/Argentina - this is NOW a bad matchup for Poland; agree, our group props were based on thought process of Gauchos being through and Scaloni rotating. Saudis blew that into the Persian Gulf. so now they get a full strength opponent. im staying away. already have one pitchfork halfway up my backside. dont need another.
Danny getting the call. this should be juiced. O4.5 cards @+136

Saudis/Mexico - jumped on this immediately, conceding that 2nd one REALLY hurt the Concacaf side. put the GD at an odd number, which is something a coach never wants heading into the 3rd match. both need the 3 pts to advance, Saudis dont know how to park a bus and Mexico cant so should see plenty of chances in this one. lets hope they can convert a few. O2.5 @-120. and taking the 2nd half O1.5 @-110
assignments announced. ohhh myyyyyy, time for another runner with our beloved Mr. Armpits O4.5 cards @+114, O5.5 @+228. with both needing a result to advance, things will get chippy out there.

Group D: applicable futures:
Danes advance to Qtrs @+200

France/Tunisia - Didier will probably rotate and use all subs allowed. already have that trend with Tunisians to find the net. dont know why books still have them in mid 200s, France dont care about these meaningless 3rd matches. making a small play with Tunisia +1/2 @+160 for fun.

Australia/Denmark - simply put. Danes far better side, Aussies will put 10 behind the ball and try to keep things level as long as possible. Denmark -1 @-115 push at worst.

Group E: applicable wagers:
Germany O5.5 goals @-118 (groups)
Gnabry O1.5 goals @+149 (groups)
Japan O2.5 goals @-163 (groups)
Spain to win group @-115

Japan/Spain - agreed. faded them vs Costa Rica the other night, back on them now, a dangerous match for Enriques side as Japan plays far better in the underdog spot, or better to say this, far better vs opponents whom come at them, allowing them to counter attack. just feel this will be the type of match where Enrique will play posession game, get out of it injury free. Sergio is the only one on the squad on a yellow. Japan +1.5 @-128

Costa Rica/Germany - not much to see here. Germans need the 3 pts - possibly with goals attached depending on what the score is in other one. but id pay heed to caution if Spain takes a big lead, Flick knows he only needs to win. wont be any need to do anything come 2nd half - especially with Kimmich & Gor carrying yellows. and with the TT still in play, dont need to do anything. 1st half O1.5 @-109 and tossing little more on that. (tho i do admit to hoping for a royal thumping with this Group currently leading in goals scored)

Group F: applicable futures:
Canada to concede in all matches @-122
Morocco O3.5 pts @+130 (groups), Morocco to qualify @+200
Belgium O 5.5 goals @-115 (groups)
Belgium, Morocco @+560, Croatia/Morocco @+1000(dual)

3 weeks ago Waffles had the biggest (and most) ??? of any of the heavy group favs coming in. so it figures 3 weeks later theyre in prime position to royally mess this group up. like several of us, im not leaving 4-digits on the table with that dual prop. but not quite sure what I want to do here. Moroccans are THE best team in this group, but like a few others have already mentioned... i can not trust them as well when they are going off as favs.

Canada/Morocco - hammering the Croats like we did when at '+' money is one thing, but with Morocco? Croats are a proven experienced side. world class midfield. and veterans of big games. Morocco? a point here and they qualify, if they mess up & Waffles grab 3? thell lose out to Croats on Goal difference. again, as several know firsthand, winning when you arent supposed to is much easier than when the pressure is on your shoulders. Canada have nothing to lose and play with far much more pace than those other two so I can see them causing problems. as Daniele mentioned, statistically theyve performed far better vs the other two than Morocco did.

Canada vs Waffles/ Croats: 22(3) 46% 4 corners, 8(2) 52% 2
Morocco vs Waffles/Croats 10(4) 33% 1 corner, 8(2) 35% 0

Croatia/Belgium - need to wait. these lines wont budge anyways. we have talked enough about this Belgian squad. cant keep blaming Roberto. somewhere along the line players need to be held accountable. strategy is meaningless if you arent putting in the effort.

from our beloved statistician, just a reminder, one of the strangest WC trends:
every match which falls into the 2.60 - 2.79 (+160-179) range on either side has never ended level. 13 straight and counting since 2006. including korea/ghana yesterday. so all you have to do is pick the winner.   piece of cake ehhh?   

Group G: applicable wagers
Serbia O3.5 goals @+103
Serbia O3.5 pts @-138 (groups)
Serbia to reach Qtrs @+500
Brazil, Serbia @+206 (groups)

unless you think the African side can beat Tites squad, this is fairly simple on what to do. take Switzerland. (laughing) going to sit on this one a few days. Serbs blew a golden opportunity to simply come in and park the bus vs Swiss and after that performance last night im not entirely sure if thats even a good thing right now.  

Group H - only one had was Uruguay, Portugal @+305 which is done.  nothing else for that one

with our two largest futures by far (offsides & yellows) and with both already well into the triple digits with the 3rd round having yet started (cork popping)

Group with most goals: E @+400, C @+640
current: A: 10, B: 12, C: 7, D: 9, E: 13, F: 8, G: 10, H: 12
if Lions can calm down over there in 'B' ill be happy. can hedge with the final two groups.

GL to all 

decent results this final round. will get around to updating once groups done.  hey Boll, 'Oliverization'... WC style 

Pending: 

Japan +1.5 @-128, Costa Rica/Germany 1st half O1.5 @-109, Uruguay TT O1.5 @-115 and need them to just find the net to finish that combo @+137

Group E: ust tossing up thoughts and what discussed
as discussed, pay heed to the fact that if Enriques side takes an early lead, all Flicks troops need to do is win, or at the very least - grab a 2 goal lead. in case the other match ends level theyll go through.
but also, Calvo is suspended for this one (CR Centreback); and when your CB is out on short notice? problemos problemos problemos back there, for anyone. the one amazing stat I find hard to believe is CR has 0 corners through two matches. people are forgetting that Costa Rica ALSO has a great chance to advance by getting a point. if you think they can cleansheet the Germans then thats fine. but what ya think going to happen if Germans bang in 1 before half? when a defensive minded squad suddenly has to open it up, bad things tend to happen. and Germans rarely sit on leads vs inferior opponents. would definitely not advise taking the under in this match.

Group F:

might toss something on Canada in a rare in-game if necessary if that one is level at the hour mark.
took Belgium to win @+178 (not in mood to let that dual prop slide)

not for a few more days but adding for friday:

adding:
Cameroon/Brazil O1.5 @-115 (2nd half)
Ghana/Uruguay O1.5 @+129 (2nd half)

R16: agreed. jumped all over this one already.
Netherlands to win @-110 

GL to all 

Rough last few days buddy 

Hopefully Netherlands finds you well tomorrow 

Too bad Italy isn’t playing - I know you’d get all those games correct 

Spec-like Netherlands -110 tomorrow...good luck!