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Euro20 2nd Round.....

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Posted: #1

early start. forgot put this up ystday. no time later. 

1st Round done. 29 goals (bunch of OG too) is right on par. 23 yellows not too concerned about as that will be ramped up as it continues. things will start getting chippy when facing elimination. and as luck would have it, after Round 1 we are sitting at the top on BOTH Group goal props (most: C/fewest D). will see how things unfold.

Round 2: put these in already earlier. going lightly, will let futures dictate for most part. as mentioned, just leery of that age old saying of not being as good/bad as previous match. opponent is different, in some cases so is the pitch, and table placement can cause adjustment to formation/strategies. and as mentioned, this is just the 2nd Round people always fall into this trap - teams dont "need" to do anything, just get the 'w' or whatever and give themselves a chance in the final round.

(thoughts only)
Italy/Switz - we might be neighbors but hardly ever play another. Swiss side are no pushovers as they are an experienced, especially in the back. Mancini only making one change (Florenzis injury); and barring any in-game knocks, already mentioned the same rotations. our attack from midfield to the frontline was seamless; but again this was made easier when theres no ball pressure. (though this lineup wont fare well the deeper we go). Marco might see some minutes as hes was with them on the pitch during training, will help with the MF rotations. on the other side, judging from Vlads discussions it appears hes set to put 5 across the middle. Embolos pace will be a good test for that backline, but since we are expected to win the posession game, chances might be few. as always, no plays on sides; with advancement at stake and the huge opportunity to rotate in the 3rd match, i dont expect them to push forward if have the lead, but still have that TT prop if they do. getting 3 pts, advancing and keeping a cleansheet along the way is heaven. smells like one of our customary 2-0 scorelines next wednesday. PASS.
FORZA ITALIA!!!!

 

 
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Posted: #2

Turkey/Wales - quickly, jump on this. with first game out of way last night. expect Turkey to play much better. this squad is far better than what we all witnessed, and their attacks down the sides will give Wales a heap of problems. but most importantly, agreed; seeing Wales players bent over tugging shorts towards the end; with temps expected near 26C and that lovely humidity out there should see them pull away in 2nd. Turkey to win @+150 and lets toss some on the 2nd half over 1.5 @+165

 

adding to futures:
Finland to finish 4th @+550 - agreed. better value than taking the Russians on wednesday. can hedge next week with Danes if russians do what we expected them to do. Russians will be keen to expose that backline.

Russia/Finland over 2.5 @+130 - Finland staring down barrel of having to face Belgium their last match; need a point to qualify. problem for them tho is they have had a hard time keeping people out of their net. might take a bit of time but just feel the match will turn upside down if/when the first goal is scored. 

(no time for writeups, time permitting will get back with these later.

Group B:
Ukraine/Macedonia over 2.5 @+135

Group D:
Croatia/Czech under 2.5 @-130

Serie C: (Thurs) promotion final   last of season. 

Aless/Padova -we hit the under with ease last wknd in scoreless 1st leg.  take the Piedmont side to finally get through into 'B'. Alessandria to win @+145

GL to all an_cheers

 
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Posted: #3

Thanks for your insight on these matchups. peace_5

BOL clover

 
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Posted: #4

Spec,

I had Turkey TT OV .5 today laying big lumber. OUCH!

The pen is mightier than the pigs
 
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Posted: #5

Can peace_5  

Barney peace_5  not sur what they were trying to do last night. (posting thoughts below) though considerably less risk than thy futures, its still been a slow start aside from those props had 1st round.


Turkey to win @+150, 2nd half over 1.5 @+165 (L,L)  Gareth? quiet
Russia/Finland over 2.5 @+130 (L)

sharing thoughts sent out

turkey/wales - not quite sure what the Turks were trying to accomplish, of all my pre-tourney writeups.... theirs takes the cake an_getawaybut blaming the Turks for everything detracts the performance Wales put forth, a solid game. experience beat youth. spacing, ball movement, shifting and overall awareness - hallmarks of an experienced side. Gunes is just half of the blame, a coach can only do so much. letting an opponent walk down the endline - on a corner no worse for godsakes - thats not bad coaching its something else. and it's un-printable. and defenders are taught that in youth academies - make sure your heels are on the line, if he gets by you and foul? its a free kick. not a PK. of course Gareth putting it 20 rows back helped. but it should never of even come to that. cant blame coach for everything yet thats the stuff which gets them sacked. Ramsey is another classic example of playing on another level when slipping on your countrys patch cause he had a rough time with us this year. he'll be super motivated next week.

russia/finland - can these russians run & think at same time? their reluctance to move forward into space. almost looked like Dyz was screaming at his teammates to slow down and wait for him to catch up. amazingly annoying. got the job done with a perfect result to leave them a chance. that overturned goal is massive to Finlands chances.

Italy/Switz - backline created 5 offsides = cohesion. midfield with a high work rate and not afraid to get shorts dirty, our ability to get up the pitch and not rely on one person like yesteryears with a bunch of two-way midfielders. (the Old Guard must be turning in their graves) Cirro suprised everyone dropping it off to Lorenzo last friday. tonight? from same spot he buries it w/out hesistation. hope can keep this going but the going will get harder. its just two games, our media getting a wee-bit too far ahead of themselves. a solid performance tho, and they love playing together. we'll see.

 
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Posted: #6

no time later, tonights games.  

Belgium/Denmark - dont need to do anything with this Group, setup nicely for everything ehh? . for this match, a classic stay-away. Belgium?: get their captain/MF/best player back, Danes lost their Capt/MF/best player, that alone is cause enough to back Martinez' guys. Denmark?: super-motivated & playing @home; dont ever underestimate those two intangibles. some think Belgiums class will rise & wear them out(they still DO need that signature win to let everyone else know theyre "#1". so to speak. and this is a good place to start. at the same time you have to wonder about Kevs willingness to mix it up, especially those 50-50's with elbows flying in middle of park. for the Danes? not even a loss will affect their chances of finishing 2nd, beat russians and (of course, if u think Fins can get a result next week that is) anyways, all 3 results shouldnt suprise anyone. hence the lines as is. PASS.

Group C:
Ukraine/Macedonia over 2.5 @+135 - should just leave this alone due to futures TT + Group but Macedonians simply dont have the caliber to play full 90. and Ukranians should be - at the very least - attempt to match the goal difference for their final test next week.

(tailing. nice catch fellas. lord knows this was/is always a problem in WC)
over 3.5 cards @+160 . Fernando Rapallini got the call to hold the musical instrument. and hes a Conmebol man, 1st one to ever officiate a Euro. a regular in Gaucho-land & several years of Copa Lib. but these are two entirely different styles of play between the continents. and the nuances of how the matches get handled should hopefully see a bunch on Thurs. tho as Marco mentioned, Ukranians do not foul often. still worth a shot at these prices.

*** on a side note, the other half of FIFA's brilliant idea (sarcasm) they sent the Spaniard over to Copa out there. he'll be holding the whislte for Chile/Bolivia . so might toss some on that one as well****

Netherlands/Austria - ditto with other Group C. no need to anything, a goal clinches Austrians total. another goal festival in this would be nice ehh? PASS

GL to all an_cheers

 
Legend
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Posted: #7

Spec an_cheers  BOL today. 

I saw Lukaku talk about the game yesterday, the need to keep momentum and the need to be "merciless" as he put it. They will honour Eriksen at 10 mins and before the game and then they will play to win. We beat the Danes twice when they had Eriksen, KDB might not start but will get minutes, the Danish style is not the one that troubles us, I will be shocked if it's anything but a Belgian win today, man on a mission inspiring team on a mission. 

CPL XIX Winner. Punter. Scotch lover. Big Man.
 
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Posted: #8

Ganda peace_5 a tale of two halves.  but the name of the game is getting the '3'. let the media and everyone else super-analyze everything afterwards. that was an extremely difficult situation they were in.  Kev kind of helped out the cause a little ehh?? an_praise

Ukraine/Macedonia over 2.5 @+135 (W), O3.5 cards @+160 (L)

 

remainder for this round before the fun starts. need to keep this short.  risk low.
Group D:
Croatia/Czech under 2.5 @-130, over 3.5 cards @+156 - this has the makings of one of those rugby-style matches. Carlos handed out just 1 with France/Germany, these two will be keeping him busy on friday.
England TT O2.5 @+162 - just not in mood to pay juice for them to score in both halves. im sure Boll wouldnt mind if they can take care of my TT on them later. 

Group E: future on standby: if swedes/slovaks end level take Poland finish 3rd.

Group F: (saturday)
Hungary/France over 2.5 cards @-114

GL to all an_cheers

 
Legend
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Posted: #9

Spec peace_5

 

They should have expected that barrage for the first while, but they looked unprepared, 1st half was dramatic, Denayer's error was just awful. Lucky we squeezed by, Lukaku worked hard and handled all the personel hanging around him, KDB is the best midfielder on the planet. 

Sure wish I was Italian for this one though.....bigsmile

CPL XIX Winner. Punter. Scotch lover. Big Man.
 
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Posted: #10

Ganda, peace_5  not much time. will put more in-depth thoughts tmrw. but i wil say this much, the way the pitch tilted once Kev was put in the gamepretty much validates the value of having him. his presence alone. chr*st Ganda, that was an unselfish assist, he could have blasted that one if wanted to.   regarding your other comment, wont deny we are playing good but 2 matches dont win tourneys.

shaping up to be one h*ll of a wknd with 3 Italians making the cut across the pond (including our Molinari brothers). tomorrow is going to be fun - and perhaps profitable as threw our standard placement futures on all 3. an_nailbiter      made a ton of plays for 3rd round already will try to get those up later.

Croatia/Czech under 2.5 @-130, over 3.5 cards @+156 (W, W)

England TT O2.5 @+162 (L)

Pending:

Hungary/France O2.5 cards @-114   

adding:

tossed some on France -1.5 @-108 - dont think  these guys going to wait till the 80th to take care of this one.

backing off the other two Spain looks tempting but Enriques doesnt have the players to fit the system he wants to employ. better ball movement and theyll blow poland away. but this one should only be watched.

 

GL to all an_cheers

 

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