First of all let me start this out by saying that I’m by no means a women’s soccer expert. I don’t follow women’s soccer on a regular basis, but have been watching and paying attention during the World Cup. That being said I can’t even begin to explain how disappointed I am with USA Women’s ‘game’. Not their results in this tournament, but just their game in general, or more specifically the way they play it. It’s like watching a primitive version of soccer being played by a bunch of high-school level athletes. Seriously, this is what I remember girls’ soccer like in high-school. (Side-note: yes, I did attend a few of those when I was in high-school. I played soccer during my high-school years, and supported the female team any chance I had.) Some of you might be ‘baffled’ reading this: “How can you compare US Women’s team to high-school soccer players?” Well, watching both Brazil/USA and France/USA games, I don’t think USA put more than 3 passes together at any point of those games. The back-line has no concept of the word ‘pass’ and all four defenders are programmed to automatically boot the ball either out of bounds or just mindlessly down the field. The center-midfielders are pretty much non-existent during the game, lacking creativity, pace, and most importantly, the ability to hold-on to the ball. Shannon Boxx is old and seems to be more interested in playing D all day long instead of attacking an opponent. Carli Lloyd would be the worst player on the pitch for the US, if Amy Rodriguez was coming off the bench. Lloyd is terrible and I have no idea how she is a starter. Speaking of Amy Rodriguez, she is completely useless out there. Sure she has decent pace (not great), but when you don’t know how to keep the ball at your feet, your speed is irrelevant. In all actuality, both USA forwards have horrible first touches (yes, Abby Wambach, you too!). Abby Wambach might be USA’s most over-rated player. She spends most of the game acting as a ‘brick wall’ for her teammates to boot balls off. For every pass she completes, four others just bounce off aimlessly in any direction. Wambach’s strength is her size. She’s a big girl and a solid target but she’s not fast, and doesn’t possess a good touch. I’m completely unimpressed with her.
That being said, there are some positives for this US team. The wingers are the strength of the squad. O’Reilly is pretty solid, even though she tends to disappear for long stretches of the time. She is good for a couple of really nice runs down the flank, creating scoring chances in the process. Cheney is our best player! Hands down! I’m still amazed that Pia pulled her against Brazil. I don’t care how poorly she’s playing – she must be in there for the full-game. Cheney is excellent at taking the kicks from set-pieces, and to me she is our best on-the-ball attacker. Then there’s Megan Rapinoe who is our ‘super-sub’. She’s a fearless, smart player who excels at crosses and feeding the ball to her teammates. In all honesty, she should be starting on the wing and Cheney should be in the middle instead of Lloyd. (Pia is probably too stubborn to make this change and I fear that bringing Rapinoe at the 60-minute mark against Japan could be too late.) Besides these three, Alex Morgan is another solid performer. How she’s not starting over Rodriguez is mind-boggling. Did I mention already that Rodriguez is useless? Finally, Hope Solo is another ‘key’ component (yes, I know I’m Mr. Obvious here). She’s clearly the best goal-keeper out there. ‘Keepers’ are very important in women’s game, as they’re not as critical in the men’s game where I believe skill-players are much more valuable. A top-notch goal-keeper in a women’s game could mask a lot of deficiencies on a team and could carry a squad further than they should go. This is USA’s biggest advantage in this tournament and the biggest reason why they’re playing in the Final.
I know I mentioned earlier that this US team reminds me of a high-school girls’ squad. Obviously that’s not the case. USA players are bigger, stronger, and very well conditioned. Their ‘game’ reminds me of a high-school team’s ‘game’: lack of touch, lack of creativity, just clear the ball and hope to capitalize on an opponent’s mistake. I watched the ’99 squad compete in the World Cup, and even though I don’t remember them much, their ‘game’ seemed to be much better. It seems that since ’99 most other nations progressed in soccer, while USA digressed. I feel that Brazil, France, Germany, and Japan, all play a much better ‘game’ and are overall better teams that USA. These squads know how to possess the ball, they utilize a short-passing game to control the game, and overall they are much from fluid in their style. USA relies on brute strength, size, and conditioning. That’s it! No creativity, no ability to put more than 3 passes together and really not much pure ‘soccer’ skill. Just clear the ball, boot it up-field, and hope for the ‘best’. That’s the sense I get when watching this squad play. Maybe USA should watch some game-tapes of men’s national teams from Spain, Holland, Brazil, etc. Seems like something that the rest of these ‘top’ women’s squads have done. Either way, I know that USA is ranked #1 by FIFA, but I feel that’s a mistake. Here would be my rankings of the top teams:
#1: Germany #2: Japan #3: Brazil #4: France #5: USA #6: Sweden
First of all let me start this out by saying that I’m by no means a women’s soccer expert. I don’t follow women’s soccer on a regular basis, but have been watching and paying attention during the World Cup. That being said I can’t even begin to explain how disappointed I am with USA Women’s ‘game’. Not their results in this tournament, but just their game in general, or more specifically the way they play it. It’s like watching a primitive version of soccer being played by a bunch of high-school level athletes. Seriously, this is what I remember girls’ soccer like in high-school. (Side-note: yes, I did attend a few of those when I was in high-school. I played soccer during my high-school years, and supported the female team any chance I had.) Some of you might be ‘baffled’ reading this: “How can you compare US Women’s team to high-school soccer players?” Well, watching both Brazil/USA and France/USA games, I don’t think USA put more than 3 passes together at any point of those games. The back-line has no concept of the word ‘pass’ and all four defenders are programmed to automatically boot the ball either out of bounds or just mindlessly down the field. The center-midfielders are pretty much non-existent during the game, lacking creativity, pace, and most importantly, the ability to hold-on to the ball. Shannon Boxx is old and seems to be more interested in playing D all day long instead of attacking an opponent. Carli Lloyd would be the worst player on the pitch for the US, if Amy Rodriguez was coming off the bench. Lloyd is terrible and I have no idea how she is a starter. Speaking of Amy Rodriguez, she is completely useless out there. Sure she has decent pace (not great), but when you don’t know how to keep the ball at your feet, your speed is irrelevant. In all actuality, both USA forwards have horrible first touches (yes, Abby Wambach, you too!). Abby Wambach might be USA’s most over-rated player. She spends most of the game acting as a ‘brick wall’ for her teammates to boot balls off. For every pass she completes, four others just bounce off aimlessly in any direction. Wambach’s strength is her size. She’s a big girl and a solid target but she’s not fast, and doesn’t possess a good touch. I’m completely unimpressed with her.
That being said, there are some positives for this US team. The wingers are the strength of the squad. O’Reilly is pretty solid, even though she tends to disappear for long stretches of the time. She is good for a couple of really nice runs down the flank, creating scoring chances in the process. Cheney is our best player! Hands down! I’m still amazed that Pia pulled her against Brazil. I don’t care how poorly she’s playing – she must be in there for the full-game. Cheney is excellent at taking the kicks from set-pieces, and to me she is our best on-the-ball attacker. Then there’s Megan Rapinoe who is our ‘super-sub’. She’s a fearless, smart player who excels at crosses and feeding the ball to her teammates. In all honesty, she should be starting on the wing and Cheney should be in the middle instead of Lloyd. (Pia is probably too stubborn to make this change and I fear that bringing Rapinoe at the 60-minute mark against Japan could be too late.) Besides these three, Alex Morgan is another solid performer. How she’s not starting over Rodriguez is mind-boggling. Did I mention already that Rodriguez is useless? Finally, Hope Solo is another ‘key’ component (yes, I know I’m Mr. Obvious here). She’s clearly the best goal-keeper out there. ‘Keepers’ are very important in women’s game, as they’re not as critical in the men’s game where I believe skill-players are much more valuable. A top-notch goal-keeper in a women’s game could mask a lot of deficiencies on a team and could carry a squad further than they should go. This is USA’s biggest advantage in this tournament and the biggest reason why they’re playing in the Final.
I know I mentioned earlier that this US team reminds me of a high-school girls’ squad. Obviously that’s not the case. USA players are bigger, stronger, and very well conditioned. Their ‘game’ reminds me of a high-school team’s ‘game’: lack of touch, lack of creativity, just clear the ball and hope to capitalize on an opponent’s mistake. I watched the ’99 squad compete in the World Cup, and even though I don’t remember them much, their ‘game’ seemed to be much better. It seems that since ’99 most other nations progressed in soccer, while USA digressed. I feel that Brazil, France, Germany, and Japan, all play a much better ‘game’ and are overall better teams that USA. These squads know how to possess the ball, they utilize a short-passing game to control the game, and overall they are much from fluid in their style. USA relies on brute strength, size, and conditioning. That’s it! No creativity, no ability to put more than 3 passes together and really not much pure ‘soccer’ skill. Just clear the ball, boot it up-field, and hope for the ‘best’. That’s the sense I get when watching this squad play. Maybe USA should watch some game-tapes of men’s national teams from Spain, Holland, Brazil, etc. Seems like something that the rest of these ‘top’ women’s squads have done. Either way, I know that USA is ranked #1 by FIFA, but I feel that’s a mistake. Here would be my rankings of the top teams:
#1: Germany #2: Japan #3: Brazil #4: France #5: USA #6: Sweden
Either way, I’m done ‘venting’ now. Let’s breakdown this Sunday matchup between Japan and USA.
Unless Pia decides to start Rapinoe on the wing, move Cheney to the middle, and replace Rodriguez with Morgan up front, I’m afraid this could be a very long day (or short, depending on how you look at it) for the Americans. Lloyd, Rodriguez, Wambach, and Boxx lack the skill to control the game, and against a team like Japan, that’s a recipe for disaster. Japan plays a precise-passing and possession game. They remind me of Brazil and France in many ways. Very good with the ball at their feet and confident ‘on-the-ball playmakers’. I love how they attack ‘openings’ on the field with explosive runs, putting a lot of pressure on the opposing D. They also are very solid defensively, allowing 4 goals in 5 matches so far and Kaihori is not a bad goalie. Not as good as Solo but not as bad as France’s keeper. Japan is the type of team that gives US trouble, similar to Brazil and France. They will possess the ball, forcing US players to ‘chase’, thus taking themselves out of position, and spending a lot of energy. Against France, US only had 11 shots (5 on goal) and 45% of possession. France, on the other hand, dominated the play with 25 shots (8 on goal) and 55% possession. They outplayed the American squad and were the better team on the pitch. Well, Japan is probably even better than France. I expect Japan to win the possession battle and generate more scoring chances for themselves. Playing defense is a lot harder than offense (I think that applies to most sports) and I wouldn’t be surprised if US gets more and more tired as the game progresses. Sure, they’re in excellent physical form, but so are the Japanese women. As good as Hope Solo is, a team with more scoring chances usually ends up with more ‘finishes’ as well, and I expect Japan to be that team on Sunday.
USA will have one of these 2 strategies: start Rapinoe (and potentially Morgan) and move Cheney into the center-mid role, thus being in a much better position to control the flow of the game, OR stay with status quo, and rely on a defensive-minded game-plan for the first two-thirds of the game (prior to bringing on the super-subs in the 60th minute). I think Pia will go with option 2, putting the regular starters out there and relying on USA’s size and conditioning to execute a defensive game-plan against a better opponent. If US can keep Japan from scoring, then they’ll have the advantage in the last 30 minutes of the game with Rapinoe and Morgan coming in. It’s a big ‘IF’ though. Like I’ve explained before, USA’s ‘regular’ lineup is just not good enough to control the flow of the game, thus they will be forced to defend most of the time. It’s a dangerous strategy, similar to ‘prevent defense’ in American football. (How many times have we lost wagers when a team decides to play ‘prevent’ late in the 2nd halves?) Japan will ‘take-it’ to this US squad and I have a feeling, eventually they’ll break through. Maybe Pia will bring on Rapinoe and Morgan earlier than usually, but it might still be too late. Pia would be smart to start those two from the get-go, move Cheney to the middle, and instead of sitting back, attack Japan’s D any chance they have. I think that’s the right game-plan here, but unfortunately I don’t believe that will be the case. I see Japan breaking through for a goal or two, as they will control the game throughout, similar to what France has done in the semis. If Japan is leading, like I expect, USA will bring in the subs and make a push in the last 30 minutes of the game or so. I feel that Japan is disciplined enough to absorb this ‘rush’ and might seal-the-deal with a breakaway goal in the process. My prediction: 2-0 Japan in regulation.
I know a lot of ‘casual’ bettors will back USA because of the whole ‘team of destiny’ mantra or the fact that they believe ‘USA wins due to their heart’, etc. I get that. But you have to be careful here. Listening to USA players’ interviews after games, one could get a sense that the rest of their opponents are playing “heartless” out there. I mean, how many times has Wambach said that USA keeps winning these games due to ‘having more heart’ or ‘wanting it more’? Really? So USA women have more ‘heart’ and want to win the World Cup of soccer more than Japanese players (Tsunami ravaged nation that is looking for anything positive during these times), more than German players (host nation), more than the Frenchies (you know they would have loved to beat us!), more than the Brazilians (hard to believe that Brazil let that tying goal in because they didn’t really want it as much as US) and more than all the other nations that already got eliminated? I know it’s a big cliché for players to say things like this (who wants to admit that luck was a factor or that just a normal randomness of sports played a role??), but we as bettors have to be careful when listening to these interviews and then making our decisions based on superficial things like ‘destiny’, ‘fate’, and ‘bigger hearts’ (seems like someone needs to see a doctor if that’s the case). Sure, these things make most bettors feel “warm and fuzzy” when they place their wagers as not many want to admit that USA is LUCKY to be here. They should have lost against Brazil and they should have lost against France. (Wambach’s goal against France was just a poor play by the keeper – you never allow goals in the 6-yard box like that) USA has played 2 opponents who are flat-out BETTER than them and they got lucky twice. Well, their ‘luck’ is about to run out. When it’s all said and done, better teams tend to prevail and Japan to me is a much better team that the United States. Heck, if you want to feel “warm and fuzzy” inside why not bet on a team that is truly playing for its nation, to bring a smile to the faces of thousands effected by the devastating tsunami? Or better yet, why not bet on a team that is 0-22-3 lifetime against their opponent? Aren’t they ‘due’? Whatever you need to do to make yourself feel ‘warm and fuzzy’ is alright with me, but remember that backing BETTER and especially, UNDERVALUED teams, is what sports-investing is all about.
Either way, I’m done ‘venting’ now. Let’s breakdown this Sunday matchup between Japan and USA.
Unless Pia decides to start Rapinoe on the wing, move Cheney to the middle, and replace Rodriguez with Morgan up front, I’m afraid this could be a very long day (or short, depending on how you look at it) for the Americans. Lloyd, Rodriguez, Wambach, and Boxx lack the skill to control the game, and against a team like Japan, that’s a recipe for disaster. Japan plays a precise-passing and possession game. They remind me of Brazil and France in many ways. Very good with the ball at their feet and confident ‘on-the-ball playmakers’. I love how they attack ‘openings’ on the field with explosive runs, putting a lot of pressure on the opposing D. They also are very solid defensively, allowing 4 goals in 5 matches so far and Kaihori is not a bad goalie. Not as good as Solo but not as bad as France’s keeper. Japan is the type of team that gives US trouble, similar to Brazil and France. They will possess the ball, forcing US players to ‘chase’, thus taking themselves out of position, and spending a lot of energy. Against France, US only had 11 shots (5 on goal) and 45% of possession. France, on the other hand, dominated the play with 25 shots (8 on goal) and 55% possession. They outplayed the American squad and were the better team on the pitch. Well, Japan is probably even better than France. I expect Japan to win the possession battle and generate more scoring chances for themselves. Playing defense is a lot harder than offense (I think that applies to most sports) and I wouldn’t be surprised if US gets more and more tired as the game progresses. Sure, they’re in excellent physical form, but so are the Japanese women. As good as Hope Solo is, a team with more scoring chances usually ends up with more ‘finishes’ as well, and I expect Japan to be that team on Sunday.
USA will have one of these 2 strategies: start Rapinoe (and potentially Morgan) and move Cheney into the center-mid role, thus being in a much better position to control the flow of the game, OR stay with status quo, and rely on a defensive-minded game-plan for the first two-thirds of the game (prior to bringing on the super-subs in the 60th minute). I think Pia will go with option 2, putting the regular starters out there and relying on USA’s size and conditioning to execute a defensive game-plan against a better opponent. If US can keep Japan from scoring, then they’ll have the advantage in the last 30 minutes of the game with Rapinoe and Morgan coming in. It’s a big ‘IF’ though. Like I’ve explained before, USA’s ‘regular’ lineup is just not good enough to control the flow of the game, thus they will be forced to defend most of the time. It’s a dangerous strategy, similar to ‘prevent defense’ in American football. (How many times have we lost wagers when a team decides to play ‘prevent’ late in the 2nd halves?) Japan will ‘take-it’ to this US squad and I have a feeling, eventually they’ll break through. Maybe Pia will bring on Rapinoe and Morgan earlier than usually, but it might still be too late. Pia would be smart to start those two from the get-go, move Cheney to the middle, and instead of sitting back, attack Japan’s D any chance they have. I think that’s the right game-plan here, but unfortunately I don’t believe that will be the case. I see Japan breaking through for a goal or two, as they will control the game throughout, similar to what France has done in the semis. If Japan is leading, like I expect, USA will bring in the subs and make a push in the last 30 minutes of the game or so. I feel that Japan is disciplined enough to absorb this ‘rush’ and might seal-the-deal with a breakaway goal in the process. My prediction: 2-0 Japan in regulation.
I know a lot of ‘casual’ bettors will back USA because of the whole ‘team of destiny’ mantra or the fact that they believe ‘USA wins due to their heart’, etc. I get that. But you have to be careful here. Listening to USA players’ interviews after games, one could get a sense that the rest of their opponents are playing “heartless” out there. I mean, how many times has Wambach said that USA keeps winning these games due to ‘having more heart’ or ‘wanting it more’? Really? So USA women have more ‘heart’ and want to win the World Cup of soccer more than Japanese players (Tsunami ravaged nation that is looking for anything positive during these times), more than German players (host nation), more than the Frenchies (you know they would have loved to beat us!), more than the Brazilians (hard to believe that Brazil let that tying goal in because they didn’t really want it as much as US) and more than all the other nations that already got eliminated? I know it’s a big cliché for players to say things like this (who wants to admit that luck was a factor or that just a normal randomness of sports played a role??), but we as bettors have to be careful when listening to these interviews and then making our decisions based on superficial things like ‘destiny’, ‘fate’, and ‘bigger hearts’ (seems like someone needs to see a doctor if that’s the case). Sure, these things make most bettors feel “warm and fuzzy” when they place their wagers as not many want to admit that USA is LUCKY to be here. They should have lost against Brazil and they should have lost against France. (Wambach’s goal against France was just a poor play by the keeper – you never allow goals in the 6-yard box like that) USA has played 2 opponents who are flat-out BETTER than them and they got lucky twice. Well, their ‘luck’ is about to run out. When it’s all said and done, better teams tend to prevail and Japan to me is a much better team that the United States. Heck, if you want to feel “warm and fuzzy” inside why not bet on a team that is truly playing for its nation, to bring a smile to the faces of thousands effected by the devastating tsunami? Or better yet, why not bet on a team that is 0-22-3 lifetime against their opponent? Aren’t they ‘due’? Whatever you need to do to make yourself feel ‘warm and fuzzy’ is alright with me, but remember that backing BETTER and especially, UNDERVALUED teams, is what sports-investing is all about.
Alright fellas, I wanted to break the game down a bit and share my thoughts on these 2 teams but it’s time to make some plays now. I actually have a ‘futures’ wager going on USA to win the whole thing at 5.5 to 1 odds. Normally I would let it ride, but I came to a conclusion that Japan is clearly the better team that is under-valued here, and thus I’m forced to bet accordingly. Here’s what I’m doing:
Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds
I’m betting 6.5 Units to win 5.5 units on this wager. Since I already have 1 unit invested to win 5.5 Units if USA wins the World Cup, here are the potential results and payouts:
#1: Japan wins in regulation = 5.5 - 1 = + 4.5 Units of profit #2: USA wins in regulation = 5.5 - 6.5 = -1 Units (loss) #3: DRAW in regulation / Japan wins = 5.5 - 1 = +4.5 Units of profit #4: DRAW in regulation / USA wins = 5.5 + 5.5 = 11 Units of profit (BEST CASE Scenario)
So assuming each of these outcomes has an equal chance of occurring (33% US wins in regulation / 33% Japan wins in regulation / 33% DRAW), my potential profit here is: 33%*(+4.5) + 33%*(-1) + 17%*(+4.5) + 17%*(+11) = +3.79 Units
If I just let my USA ‘futures’ bet ride on its own, my potential profit would be (assume 50/50 chance): 50%*(+5.5) + 50%*(-1) = +2.25 Units
I’ve effectively raised my long-term profit by 68% just by making this additional wager, and I’ve done so backing a better team! (If you make assumptions using ‘Vegas’ odds, then doing this is not recommended as you’ll be reducing your potential long-term winnings by 0.20 Units. (Yes I did the calculation) But then again, I feel these teams are very close together, with Japan actually being BETTER. Vegas does NOT agree with me! Also remember that Vegas odds have to account for the ‘public’ bias and I’m very sure that majority of the bets are coming in on the USA, thus we can’t assume these odds are truly indicative of each team’s skill-level)
So to summarize: #1: USA to win the World Cup (future’s wager): 1 unit to win 5.5 #2: Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds: 6.5 units to win 5.5
I also like the UNDER in this game as I feel that it will be a tight, low scoring affair. With both semi-final games ending up high-scoring I was hoping that the odds would be favorable to take the UNDER. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case, as odds-makers are too smart for that. The UNDER 2.5 goals is pretty ‘juiced up’. The UNDER 2.0/2.5 is at -108 so that could be a better option. I’ll wait on the O/U closer to kick-off, as hopefully the public will pound the OVER.
Ideally I would love this game to end at 0-0 and go to extra time with US winning it there or on penalty kicks. That means I would pick up 11 units of profit! Heck, maybe it will be an exact repeat of 1999, when USA beat China 5-4 in penalty kicks after a 0-0 draw in regulation. Maybe it’s ‘destiny’ that USA will get to beat another Asian team in the same exact fashion as 12 years ago, and in the process will bring me 11 Units of profit. Now that makes me feel “warm and fuzzy” inside!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Alright fellas, I wanted to break the game down a bit and share my thoughts on these 2 teams but it’s time to make some plays now. I actually have a ‘futures’ wager going on USA to win the whole thing at 5.5 to 1 odds. Normally I would let it ride, but I came to a conclusion that Japan is clearly the better team that is under-valued here, and thus I’m forced to bet accordingly. Here’s what I’m doing:
Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds
I’m betting 6.5 Units to win 5.5 units on this wager. Since I already have 1 unit invested to win 5.5 Units if USA wins the World Cup, here are the potential results and payouts:
#1: Japan wins in regulation = 5.5 - 1 = + 4.5 Units of profit #2: USA wins in regulation = 5.5 - 6.5 = -1 Units (loss) #3: DRAW in regulation / Japan wins = 5.5 - 1 = +4.5 Units of profit #4: DRAW in regulation / USA wins = 5.5 + 5.5 = 11 Units of profit (BEST CASE Scenario)
So assuming each of these outcomes has an equal chance of occurring (33% US wins in regulation / 33% Japan wins in regulation / 33% DRAW), my potential profit here is: 33%*(+4.5) + 33%*(-1) + 17%*(+4.5) + 17%*(+11) = +3.79 Units
If I just let my USA ‘futures’ bet ride on its own, my potential profit would be (assume 50/50 chance): 50%*(+5.5) + 50%*(-1) = +2.25 Units
I’ve effectively raised my long-term profit by 68% just by making this additional wager, and I’ve done so backing a better team! (If you make assumptions using ‘Vegas’ odds, then doing this is not recommended as you’ll be reducing your potential long-term winnings by 0.20 Units. (Yes I did the calculation) But then again, I feel these teams are very close together, with Japan actually being BETTER. Vegas does NOT agree with me! Also remember that Vegas odds have to account for the ‘public’ bias and I’m very sure that majority of the bets are coming in on the USA, thus we can’t assume these odds are truly indicative of each team’s skill-level)
So to summarize: #1: USA to win the World Cup (future’s wager): 1 unit to win 5.5 #2: Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds: 6.5 units to win 5.5
I also like the UNDER in this game as I feel that it will be a tight, low scoring affair. With both semi-final games ending up high-scoring I was hoping that the odds would be favorable to take the UNDER. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case, as odds-makers are too smart for that. The UNDER 2.5 goals is pretty ‘juiced up’. The UNDER 2.0/2.5 is at -108 so that could be a better option. I’ll wait on the O/U closer to kick-off, as hopefully the public will pound the OVER.
Ideally I would love this game to end at 0-0 and go to extra time with US winning it there or on penalty kicks. That means I would pick up 11 units of profit! Heck, maybe it will be an exact repeat of 1999, when USA beat China 5-4 in penalty kicks after a 0-0 draw in regulation. Maybe it’s ‘destiny’ that USA will get to beat another Asian team in the same exact fashion as 12 years ago, and in the process will bring me 11 Units of profit. Now that makes me feel “warm and fuzzy” inside!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Incredible writeup Bodio!!! I love Japan as well, I think playing Germany and Sweden actually helps Japan for this match because the USA will try to use their height, strength and physicality against Japan just like Germany and Sweden tried to. But Japan has already seen that and is going to learn from their mistakes in both of those games. This game should be good!!!
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
Incredible writeup Bodio!!! I love Japan as well, I think playing Germany and Sweden actually helps Japan for this match because the USA will try to use their height, strength and physicality against Japan just like Germany and Sweden tried to. But Japan has already seen that and is going to learn from their mistakes in both of those games. This game should be good!!!
Incredible writeup Bodio!!! I love Japan as well, I think playing Germany and Sweden actually helps Japan for this match because the USA will try to use their height, strength and physicality against Japan just like Germany and Sweden tried to. But Japan has already seen that and is going to learn from their mistakes in both of those games. This game should be good!!!
Agree 100% and very good points. I think USA will be over-matched here unless PIA surprises everyone and makes the necessary adjustments from the get-go!
Incredible writeup Bodio!!! I love Japan as well, I think playing Germany and Sweden actually helps Japan for this match because the USA will try to use their height, strength and physicality against Japan just like Germany and Sweden tried to. But Japan has already seen that and is going to learn from their mistakes in both of those games. This game should be good!!!
Agree 100% and very good points. I think USA will be over-matched here unless PIA surprises everyone and makes the necessary adjustments from the get-go!
Bodio, my book doesn't have the +.5 line either. During the World Cup, I would sometimes play the draw along with the pk line. It wasn't an exact science but worked out ok. I'm thinking of doing it again.
In this scenario, I currently have:
Japan pk +175 Draw +230
What do you think the best combo for me would be here. Obviously, I too would be hoping for extra time (push on pk, win on draw) but want to make sure I'm still winning enough on the pk to net some profits should Japan win in regulation.
Bodio, my book doesn't have the +.5 line either. During the World Cup, I would sometimes play the draw along with the pk line. It wasn't an exact science but worked out ok. I'm thinking of doing it again.
In this scenario, I currently have:
Japan pk +175 Draw +230
What do you think the best combo for me would be here. Obviously, I too would be hoping for extra time (push on pk, win on draw) but want to make sure I'm still winning enough on the pk to net some profits should Japan win in regulation.
I've backed Japan in their last two matches and I've really enjoyed watching them. They play well and they play as a team. Seemingly the only team in the tournament that doesn't rely solely on the long ball (even though rarely anyone scored on them haha). They're smart and quick and play possession a hundred times better than any of the these other sides...that being said, I think the match will end up like French match. Japan will dominate most aspects of the game but ultimately fail in attack. Even though I love the Japanese side I have a feeling that the US will win this in regulation...just my opinion. Good luck bodio
I've backed Japan in their last two matches and I've really enjoyed watching them. They play well and they play as a team. Seemingly the only team in the tournament that doesn't rely solely on the long ball (even though rarely anyone scored on them haha). They're smart and quick and play possession a hundred times better than any of the these other sides...that being said, I think the match will end up like French match. Japan will dominate most aspects of the game but ultimately fail in attack. Even though I love the Japanese side I have a feeling that the US will win this in regulation...just my opinion. Good luck bodio
Bodio, my book doesn't have the +.5 line either. During the World Cup, I would sometimes play the draw along with the pk line. It wasn't an exact science but worked out ok. I'm thinking of doing it again.
In this scenario, I currently have:
Japan pk +175 Draw +230
What do you think the best combo for me would be here. Obviously, I too would be hoping for extra time (push on pk, win on draw) but want to make sure I'm still winning enough on the pk to net some profits should Japan win in regulation.
Why don't you just take JAPAN to WIN the WC at +160 and then also the DRAW. This way, you have a chance to win both! If it's a draw in regulation and then Japan wins on PK's or in extra time, you win both wagers....Japan to WIN the WC at +160 is a much better option than Japan to win in regulation at +175!!!
Bodio, my book doesn't have the +.5 line either. During the World Cup, I would sometimes play the draw along with the pk line. It wasn't an exact science but worked out ok. I'm thinking of doing it again.
In this scenario, I currently have:
Japan pk +175 Draw +230
What do you think the best combo for me would be here. Obviously, I too would be hoping for extra time (push on pk, win on draw) but want to make sure I'm still winning enough on the pk to net some profits should Japan win in regulation.
Why don't you just take JAPAN to WIN the WC at +160 and then also the DRAW. This way, you have a chance to win both! If it's a draw in regulation and then Japan wins on PK's or in extra time, you win both wagers....Japan to WIN the WC at +160 is a much better option than Japan to win in regulation at +175!!!
I've backed Japan in their last two matches and I've really enjoyed watching them. They play well and they play as a team. Seemingly the only team in the tournament that doesn't rely solely on the long ball (even though rarely anyone scored on them haha). They're smart and quick and play possession a hundred times better than any of the these other sides...that being said, I think the match will end up like French match. Japan will dominate most aspects of the game but ultimately fail in attack. Even though I love the Japanese side I have a feeling that the US will win this in regulation...just my opinion. Good luck bodio
All 'feelings' aside, do you believe Japan is a better overall team than the US?
I've backed Japan in their last two matches and I've really enjoyed watching them. They play well and they play as a team. Seemingly the only team in the tournament that doesn't rely solely on the long ball (even though rarely anyone scored on them haha). They're smart and quick and play possession a hundred times better than any of the these other sides...that being said, I think the match will end up like French match. Japan will dominate most aspects of the game but ultimately fail in attack. Even though I love the Japanese side I have a feeling that the US will win this in regulation...just my opinion. Good luck bodio
All 'feelings' aside, do you believe Japan is a better overall team than the US?
I truly do believe that the Japanese are a significantly more skilled, smarter and quicker side than the US... The US doesn't move enough off the ball and they pass poorly. Japan was dismantled by England (I had England for some reason haha) and the USA were made a fool of by Sweden. Both teams have played a shitty match in this world cup. The reason I believe the USA will win is purely the fact that Japan has trouble making that final pass... The header they equalized against Sweden with will not be put in the back of the net against the US... The size difference probably will not matter for the majority of the match but luckily for the US it only has to matter once or twice which I think is very likely...I really like this japanese side and I expect them to leave it all on the field but I do not expect them to win
I truly do believe that the Japanese are a significantly more skilled, smarter and quicker side than the US... The US doesn't move enough off the ball and they pass poorly. Japan was dismantled by England (I had England for some reason haha) and the USA were made a fool of by Sweden. Both teams have played a shitty match in this world cup. The reason I believe the USA will win is purely the fact that Japan has trouble making that final pass... The header they equalized against Sweden with will not be put in the back of the net against the US... The size difference probably will not matter for the majority of the match but luckily for the US it only has to matter once or twice which I think is very likely...I really like this japanese side and I expect them to leave it all on the field but I do not expect them to win
Everyone is giving Japan credit for their hard effort and they deserve it.
Sure Japan should win because it will make their disaster relief better but here we go......
US women are 6 - 0 against Japan.
Abby won't allow Japan to take this title from her after that miracle win against Brasil.
US women has the size advantage over Japan.
US women should win this in regulation if not lift the cup.
German were 7-0-1 against japan till last week. Swede and German both had Size advantage. England had size as well but against england , japan had nothing to play for and they pretty much used that game to perfect their game plan against sizes.. To counter wih that problem, they pretty much did " keep the ball low, short pass, don't hold on to ball too long, don't give up on long ball," style. Also Japan has sought to develop that style of Barcelona and even Brazil’s “beautiful game.” for years, but only this time do they have the confidence to execute it at the highest level. Japan coach Norio Sasaki said his team was ready to reach the Olympic semifinals three years ago in Beijing and “this time we said, let’s go to the final.” Both prediction came through. USA Team of destiny vs Japan Team playing to give nation a hope. My local has +255 reg now and it's hard pass up. Draw , also Japan win to nil might be great payout as well.
Everyone is giving Japan credit for their hard effort and they deserve it.
Sure Japan should win because it will make their disaster relief better but here we go......
US women are 6 - 0 against Japan.
Abby won't allow Japan to take this title from her after that miracle win against Brasil.
US women has the size advantage over Japan.
US women should win this in regulation if not lift the cup.
German were 7-0-1 against japan till last week. Swede and German both had Size advantage. England had size as well but against england , japan had nothing to play for and they pretty much used that game to perfect their game plan against sizes.. To counter wih that problem, they pretty much did " keep the ball low, short pass, don't hold on to ball too long, don't give up on long ball," style. Also Japan has sought to develop that style of Barcelona and even Brazil’s “beautiful game.” for years, but only this time do they have the confidence to execute it at the highest level. Japan coach Norio Sasaki said his team was ready to reach the Olympic semifinals three years ago in Beijing and “this time we said, let’s go to the final.” Both prediction came through. USA Team of destiny vs Japan Team playing to give nation a hope. My local has +255 reg now and it's hard pass up. Draw , also Japan win to nil might be great payout as well.
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