Soccer is not just a pass it on the ground game. Long ball and aerial prowess can be just as important. The US is in the final because it is the best team in the world in the air. Say what you want about Wambach, but she's far and away the best aerial player in the world. Time and again she has shown that when she's given a quality cross, she will bury the finish.
I think the United States gets at least 1 goal off a Wambach header. Do you believe Japan scores two goals in regulation? I think you're under estimating some of the facets of the game. Playing pretty soccer is nice attract fans, but it ultimately doesn't win games.
Can you imagine if USA had Miyama as a passer to Wambach. Now that's deadly combo , thank god she plays for Japan.
Soccer is not just a pass it on the ground game. Long ball and aerial prowess can be just as important. The US is in the final because it is the best team in the world in the air. Say what you want about Wambach, but she's far and away the best aerial player in the world. Time and again she has shown that when she's given a quality cross, she will bury the finish.
I think the United States gets at least 1 goal off a Wambach header. Do you believe Japan scores two goals in regulation? I think you're under estimating some of the facets of the game. Playing pretty soccer is nice attract fans, but it ultimately doesn't win games.
Can you imagine if USA had Miyama as a passer to Wambach. Now that's deadly combo , thank god she plays for Japan.
Wow...this US team is playing awesome. I didn't think Pia would make the necessary change of inserting Rapinoe in a starting lineup and playing Cheney in the middle, albeit as a forward, but she did, and it has really made a huge difference. Rapinoe seems to be open all the time and is really controlling the left flank. Great adjustment by Pia. Like I've said, I don't follow women's soccer and was going off what I saw in the tournament. Today USA is playing like a true #1 team! Hands down. The best I've seen any team play in any of the games so far. I'm very impressed and actually now I'm excited about this women's team.
That being said, Japan is very lucky to be tied 0-0. All the UNDER backers and Japan backers are very lucky. If somehow this game ends up at a low scoring draw (0-0 or 1-1) after 90 mins I would be very happy and very lucky! Hopefully that's the case, and then US can win in the extra time. We shall see.
Wow...this US team is playing awesome. I didn't think Pia would make the necessary change of inserting Rapinoe in a starting lineup and playing Cheney in the middle, albeit as a forward, but she did, and it has really made a huge difference. Rapinoe seems to be open all the time and is really controlling the left flank. Great adjustment by Pia. Like I've said, I don't follow women's soccer and was going off what I saw in the tournament. Today USA is playing like a true #1 team! Hands down. The best I've seen any team play in any of the games so far. I'm very impressed and actually now I'm excited about this women's team.
That being said, Japan is very lucky to be tied 0-0. All the UNDER backers and Japan backers are very lucky. If somehow this game ends up at a low scoring draw (0-0 or 1-1) after 90 mins I would be very happy and very lucky! Hopefully that's the case, and then US can win in the extra time. We shall see.
Japan still alive Bodio, barely, but they will play much better in the second half. They did against Germany and Sweden and they have seen what the US is doing on offense and defense and is going to make the necessary adjustments. Let's go Japan!!!
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Japan still alive Bodio, barely, but they will play much better in the second half. They did against Germany and Sweden and they have seen what the US is doing on offense and defense and is going to make the necessary adjustments. Let's go Japan!!!
[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio] Alright fellas, I wanted to break the game down a bit and share my thoughts on these 2 teams but it’s time to make some plays now. I actually have a ‘futures’ wager going on USA to win the whole thing at 5.5 to 1 odds. Normally I would let it ride, but I came to a conclusion that Japan is clearly the better team that is under-valued here, and thus I’m forced to bet accordingly. Here’s what I’m doing:
Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds
I’m betting 6.5 Units to win 5.5 units on this wager. Since I already have 1 unit invested to win 5.5 Units if USA wins the World Cup, here are the potential results and payouts:
#1: Japan wins in regulation = 5.5 - 1 = + 4.5 Units of profit #2: USA wins in regulation = 5.5 - 6.5 = -1 Units (loss) #3: DRAW in regulation / Japan wins = 5.5 - 1 = +4.5 Units of profit #4: DRAW in regulation / USA wins = 5.5 + 5.5 = 11 Units of profit (BEST CASE Scenario)
So assuming each of these outcomes has an equal chance of occurring (33% US wins in regulation / 33% Japan wins in regulation / 33% DRAW), my potential profit here is: 33%*(+4.5) + 33%*(-1) + 17%*(+4.5) + 17%*(+11) = +3.79 Units
If I just let my USA ‘futures’ bet ride on its own, my potential profit would be (assume 50/50 chance): 50%*(+5.5) + 50%*(-1) = +2.25 Units
I’ve effectively raised my long-term profit by 68% just by making this additional wager, and I’ve done so backing a better team! (If you make assumptions using ‘Vegas’ odds, then doing this is not recommended as you’ll be reducing your potential long-term winnings by 0.20 Units. (Yes I did the calculation) But then again, I feel these teams are very close together, with Japan actually being BETTER. Vegas does NOT agree with me! Also remember that Vegas odds have to account for the ‘public’ bias and I’m very sure that majority of the bets are coming in on the USA, thus we can’t assume these odds are truly indicative of each team’s skill-level)
So to summarize: #1: USA to win the World Cup (future’s wager): 1 unit to win 5.5 #2: Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds: 6.5 units to win 5.5
I also like the UNDER in this game as I feel that it will be a tight, low scoring affair. With both semi-final games ending up high-scoring I was hoping that the odds would be favorable to take the UNDER. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case, as odds-makers are too smart for that. The UNDER 2.5 goals is pretty ‘juiced up’. The UNDER 2.0/2.5 is at -108 so that could be a better option. I’ll wait on the O/U closer to kick-off, as hopefully the public will pound the OVER.
Ideally I would love this game to end at 0-0 and go to extra time with US winning it there or on penalty kicks. That means I would pick up 11 units of profit! Heck, maybe it will be an exact repeat of 1999, when USA beat China 5-4 in penalty kicks after a 0-0 draw in regulation. Maybe it’s ‘destiny’ that USA will get to beat another Asian team in the same exact fashion as 12 years ago, and in the process will bring me 11 Units of profit. Now that makes me feel “warm and fuzzy” inside!
[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio] Alright fellas, I wanted to break the game down a bit and share my thoughts on these 2 teams but it’s time to make some plays now. I actually have a ‘futures’ wager going on USA to win the whole thing at 5.5 to 1 odds. Normally I would let it ride, but I came to a conclusion that Japan is clearly the better team that is under-valued here, and thus I’m forced to bet accordingly. Here’s what I’m doing:
Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds
I’m betting 6.5 Units to win 5.5 units on this wager. Since I already have 1 unit invested to win 5.5 Units if USA wins the World Cup, here are the potential results and payouts:
#1: Japan wins in regulation = 5.5 - 1 = + 4.5 Units of profit #2: USA wins in regulation = 5.5 - 6.5 = -1 Units (loss) #3: DRAW in regulation / Japan wins = 5.5 - 1 = +4.5 Units of profit #4: DRAW in regulation / USA wins = 5.5 + 5.5 = 11 Units of profit (BEST CASE Scenario)
So assuming each of these outcomes has an equal chance of occurring (33% US wins in regulation / 33% Japan wins in regulation / 33% DRAW), my potential profit here is: 33%*(+4.5) + 33%*(-1) + 17%*(+4.5) + 17%*(+11) = +3.79 Units
If I just let my USA ‘futures’ bet ride on its own, my potential profit would be (assume 50/50 chance): 50%*(+5.5) + 50%*(-1) = +2.25 Units
I’ve effectively raised my long-term profit by 68% just by making this additional wager, and I’ve done so backing a better team! (If you make assumptions using ‘Vegas’ odds, then doing this is not recommended as you’ll be reducing your potential long-term winnings by 0.20 Units. (Yes I did the calculation) But then again, I feel these teams are very close together, with Japan actually being BETTER. Vegas does NOT agree with me! Also remember that Vegas odds have to account for the ‘public’ bias and I’m very sure that majority of the bets are coming in on the USA, thus we can’t assume these odds are truly indicative of each team’s skill-level)
So to summarize: #1: USA to win the World Cup (future’s wager): 1 unit to win 5.5 #2: Japan +0.5 @ -119 odds: 6.5 units to win 5.5
I also like the UNDER in this game as I feel that it will be a tight, low scoring affair. With both semi-final games ending up high-scoring I was hoping that the odds would be favorable to take the UNDER. Unfortunately that wasn’t the case, as odds-makers are too smart for that. The UNDER 2.5 goals is pretty ‘juiced up’. The UNDER 2.0/2.5 is at -108 so that could be a better option. I’ll wait on the O/U closer to kick-off, as hopefully the public will pound the OVER.
Ideally I would love this game to end at 0-0 and go to extra time with US winning it there or on penalty kicks. That means I would pick up 11 units of profit! Heck, maybe it will be an exact repeat of 1999, when USA beat China 5-4 in penalty kicks after a 0-0 draw in regulation. Maybe it’s ‘destiny’ that USA will get to beat another Asian team in the same exact fashion as 12 years ago, and in the process will bring me 11 Units of profit. Now that makes me feel “warm and fuzzy” inside!
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