The season started today. I have one play for Saturday.
SAT AUG 22nd
1. Ipswich/Sunderland to DRAW @ 3.30/+230 (1u) Bet365
The newly promoted tractor boys host Sunderland to kick off their campaign in the top flight. More often then not the odds tell you what the most likely outcome is going to be and in this case a draw. Sunderland drew 12 league matches last season which was 3rd most in the EPL. Ipswich had 15 games end level which was 2nd most in the Championship. Both sides are no strangers to ties so hopefully that continues.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The season started today. I have one play for Saturday.
SAT AUG 22nd
1. Ipswich/Sunderland to DRAW @ 3.30/+230 (1u) Bet365
The newly promoted tractor boys host Sunderland to kick off their campaign in the top flight. More often then not the odds tell you what the most likely outcome is going to be and in this case a draw. Sunderland drew 12 league matches last season which was 3rd most in the EPL. Ipswich had 15 games end level which was 2nd most in the Championship. Both sides are no strangers to ties so hopefully that continues.
The so called west London "prawn sandwich" derby. I'm basing my bet squarely on my power ratings here. I have Chelsea in the top 4 easy this season and I have Fulham fighting for relegation. Xabi Alonso should have them ready to start of the campaign that involves no European games this season. I would not be put off at Chelsea to win the EPL at +800.
MON AUG 24th
2. Chelsea ML @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle
The so called west London "prawn sandwich" derby. I'm basing my bet squarely on my power ratings here. I have Chelsea in the top 4 easy this season and I have Fulham fighting for relegation. Xabi Alonso should have them ready to start of the campaign that involves no European games this season. I would not be put off at Chelsea to win the EPL at +800.
3. Coventry/Hull UNDER 2.5 @ 1.93/-107 (1u) Bet365
Both of these newly promoted sides played out last seasons two head to matches with the exact 0-0 result both times. Coventry had the best defense in the Championship allowing only 45 goals against in 46 games. Hull have had their past 5 games go under 2.5. I do not expect a goal fest here, maybe a narrow home win or another draw.
SAT AUG 29th
3. Coventry/Hull UNDER 2.5 @ 1.93/-107 (1u) Bet365
Both of these newly promoted sides played out last seasons two head to matches with the exact 0-0 result both times. Coventry had the best defense in the Championship allowing only 45 goals against in 46 games. Hull have had their past 5 games go under 2.5. I do not expect a goal fest here, maybe a narrow home win or another draw.
4. Aston Villa/Arsenal OVER 2.5 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle
5. Aston Villa/Arsenal UNDER 4 total cards @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Bet365
6. Christos Tzolis to score or assist anytime @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365
The last 3 meetings between these sides have all gone over the total with score lines of 2-1, 2-2 & 4-1. Aston Villa have now gone 15 straight matches over 2.5 goals. Arsenal have had 5 of the past 6 go over. Last season Arsenal's matches averaged 2.6 goals per game and Villa's 2.8 gpg. Arsenal were the least penalized team in the league and were only issued 51 yellow cards. The second least yellow cards issued were to Aston Villa at 57. Jarred Gillett the referee for the match averages 3.5 cards per game. His last officiated game involving Arsenal he issued 2 cards and his last game involving Aston Villa he issued 3 cards. Christos Tzolis has been involved in almost everything Arsenal do going forward lately. I think he might be a breakout star this season. I think we are getting value on him before the market catches up.
MON AUG 31st
4. Aston Villa/Arsenal OVER 2.5 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle
5. Aston Villa/Arsenal UNDER 4 total cards @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Bet365
6. Christos Tzolis to score or assist anytime @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365
The last 3 meetings between these sides have all gone over the total with score lines of 2-1, 2-2 & 4-1. Aston Villa have now gone 15 straight matches over 2.5 goals. Arsenal have had 5 of the past 6 go over. Last season Arsenal's matches averaged 2.6 goals per game and Villa's 2.8 gpg. Arsenal were the least penalized team in the league and were only issued 51 yellow cards. The second least yellow cards issued were to Aston Villa at 57. Jarred Gillett the referee for the match averages 3.5 cards per game. His last officiated game involving Arsenal he issued 2 cards and his last game involving Aston Villa he issued 3 cards. Christos Tzolis has been involved in almost everything Arsenal do going forward lately. I think he might be a breakout star this season. I think we are getting value on him before the market catches up.
Leeds last season had the second worse away record with only 2 wins away from Elland rd. Last season Leeds lost 3-0 away to Brighton. Brighton have 5 straight wins and I'm particularly high on them and have them clinching a European spot this season.
8. Hull/Aston Villa Total goals UNDER 2.5 @ 1.87/-115 (1u) Pinnacle
The past 6 games for Hull have ended under the 2.5 total. Aston Villa have lost their top two goal scorers Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rodgers. So far this season no one has stepped up as Villa are yet to score a goal this season. Villa have a champions league fixture after this match. This really feels like a 0-0 type of game.
SAT SEP 5th
7. Brighton ML @ 2.03/+103 (1u) Pinnacle
Leeds last season had the second worse away record with only 2 wins away from Elland rd. Last season Leeds lost 3-0 away to Brighton. Brighton have 5 straight wins and I'm particularly high on them and have them clinching a European spot this season.
8. Hull/Aston Villa Total goals UNDER 2.5 @ 1.87/-115 (1u) Pinnacle
The past 6 games for Hull have ended under the 2.5 total. Aston Villa have lost their top two goal scorers Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rodgers. So far this season no one has stepped up as Villa are yet to score a goal this season. Villa have a champions league fixture after this match. This really feels like a 0-0 type of game.
Lets take a look at the macro picture when it comes to this match up. Palace just won the Conference league in May and at home they face a promoted championship side in Ipswich who they did the double over 1-0 in both games the last time they met. Palace just won their past 2 games where as Ipswich lost their last 2. Home side at anything 1.70/-143 or better is value.
10. Liverpool/Fulham Total goals OVER 3.5 @ 2.18/+118 (1u) Pinnacle
I don't often play a total at 3.5 and one may play the 3.25 line for safety in case of a 3 goal result final. The last 3 of 4 head to head meetings went over the 3.5 total. Fulham just allowed 3 goals to Palace and that was at home. Liverpool play a very open style under their new manager which is focused on attack first, and frankly Fulham are really bad at the back. Everything points to a 3-1, 4-1 win at Anfield.
SAT SEP 12th
9. Crystal Palace ML @ 1.91/-110 (1u) Bet365
Lets take a look at the macro picture when it comes to this match up. Palace just won the Conference league in May and at home they face a promoted championship side in Ipswich who they did the double over 1-0 in both games the last time they met. Palace just won their past 2 games where as Ipswich lost their last 2. Home side at anything 1.70/-143 or better is value.
10. Liverpool/Fulham Total goals OVER 3.5 @ 2.18/+118 (1u) Pinnacle
I don't often play a total at 3.5 and one may play the 3.25 line for safety in case of a 3 goal result final. The last 3 of 4 head to head meetings went over the 3.5 total. Fulham just allowed 3 goals to Palace and that was at home. Liverpool play a very open style under their new manager which is focused on attack first, and frankly Fulham are really bad at the back. Everything points to a 3-1, 4-1 win at Anfield.
...Get 'em next time DJ!
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