slamspurs

Taking props for these SGPs in particular is tough. So many scenarios to consider. 

If Burrow has a terrible game and Bengals lose, it goes under.

If Jacksonville lays and egg and Cincy plays conservative in a blowout, it goes under.

If Jacksonville jumps out to a big lead and Cincy abandons the run, it goes over.

If Jacksonville and Cincy are in a shootout, it goes over.

You could be absolutely right about who wins the game or the total, and still lose this passing yards prop. That's why people need to avoid those props and SGPs cuz they are really tough to win, hence why the sportsbook will let you boost them 50% odds, play them no-risk with a free play back if you lose, etc. 

GL Claw. Could go either way with this pick. 

Judging on last week alone, you could argue that the Packers are the ones due for regression.

Washington won and covered, but could barely did anything outside of the first drive for a long time. They won sloppy, and the defense kept them in the game, or Giants ineptness on offense did. This was against a team that went 3-14 last season. 

The Packers on the other hand were in full control basically from the opening drive on. The offense looked amazing the first couple of drives, and the defense was getting stops and turnovers. They let off the gas in the second half because they didn't need to do any more. 

They would have won 27-6 if not for the last drive in garbage time. This was against a team that went 15-2 last season. 

Just pointing that out.  

Which Panthers game are you talking about? Last year the Panthers started the season 1-7 ATS, and lost 7 out of their first 8 games. Every one of those losses was by at least 10. 

Game 1 they lost 47-10 against the Saints. They followed that up with a 26-3 loss to the Chargers. 

They lose by 19 or 20. 

Nice hit. I took Sky +8.5 first quarter, then watched them take a shit. 

Harbaugh tends to play conservative with a lead. Lamar is prone to bad mistakes, so he tries to help him help himself. Unfortunately, letting off the gas late bit them this time. It's only one game though, and it usually works. Just needa let Lamar loose in the big games. 

I don't even watch the game. The bettingcast on the apps is like 10 seconds ahead of live TV, and like a minute ahead of the streaming apps. 

It also gives you an opportunity to study live lines and see where you're at. Honestly, the knowledge you gain from watching live lines for hours is invaluable. After a while you start to understand where lines should be, and if they're too high or too low given the situation. 

Teaser #1 is likely for prime time entertainment, but it's just not a smart play IMO. 

Teasing the same game to need both the side and the total within 6 pts, and it paying less than 1-1 is not good odds. 

If you like the Ravens to much, you're probably better off teasing them with something else. If it does end up winning, it's likely you would have won in a parlay I'm going to guess. 

That hasn't changed from 20 years ago .

Considering the migration to social media, I'm actually surprised Covers gets as much traffic as it does. The funny thing to me is that a lot of people still use offshores here, even though sports betting is legal on apps in so many states now. 

It's Saturday night, and you've got a page full of picks already. That looks pretty decent to me. 

I don't post a ton. Actually very superstitious, so I don't like doing that. But I, like many people apparently, just lurk around and check what other people are saying. This site brings value that you can't get from a 100 character social media post. 

I think some, including the OP, are considering a ML parlay or 6 point teaser, which makes both teams pickem at even money.

I think they're both live dogs.

Washington's expectations are sky high. Hence why they traded for Deebo and Tunsil. The defense is what will hold them back this year. With a competent QB, and Malik Nabers that could be trouble.

Cincy's problem is also their defense. And it hasn't gotten better. Zac Taylor is widely expected to be the first coach fired this season. If he loses to the Browns, it'll be a fast moving snowball. 

Not to sound like a hater, but in no way do I think that Coco Gauff is better than Sabalenka. It was all luck that she beat her or any other top player in my opinion. 

So it's easy for me and a lot of people to dismiss Coco as a top player.

I watched some Osaka highlights from the last match, and was shocked she was broken so many times. Her backhand is a thing of beauty to watch. 

The men's draw is coming together as expected. Let's see if the women's is Iga and Sabalenka as should be expected. 

Naomi's return is a cool story line to watch though. Even if she politics irks me. 

Well I ended up taking Osaka. Good luck to us. I actually think it's over in straights. Let's hope she gets the first set or I'll consider cashing out. 

Win majors before she retires? She's thinking about retirement already? She's 27!

Came here to see if everyone was on Osaka, as I am thinking about her too. The plus juice is tempting me. We know what Osaka was, but she hasn't been able to get to that level. Was +125 yesterday. Feels like good value for someone that has shown dominance in the past. Just feels like a little too much value. 

Only 2 people (plus me), picking the match so far. All 3 people on Osaka. 

Like the Giants, but it seems like it's a popular play this week. 

I think despite the NFC Championship game appearance last season, Washington has been so bad for the past 30+ years that still nobody believes in them. Doesn't help either that they went 0-3 in preseason and got absolutely crushed in all 3 games. 

Will lay off this week, but I can see where you're coming from. Week 1 is tough. First game of the season, every team gets the benefit of the doubt. 

Ton of short lines this week. Only 2 games where the line is above 7. Dunno where to start. 

If Jerry gives up control he'll give it to his sons. Are his sons any better? 

I think everyone knows that Dallas's window to win the super bowl closed after Dak got his bag of money. Now they have to rebuild the defense, offensive line, and get RBs again. 

That total passing yards for Dak seems an awfully low considering the history you mentioned and the fact that he has both Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens Jr. now. I'd be careful with that one. The media doesn't seem to be all that down on Dallas this season, but Vegas is shockingly down on them. 

I'm a big fan of the Shanahan coaching tree. Although Darnold showed glimpses of being a franchise QB before when given some regular season playing time with the Niners the year before, it's really the coach and the system that set him up for success. 

Would not go against Kyle Shanahan, Sean Mcvay, or Kevin O'Connell. Though all 3 of them have already proven themselves at this point, and therefore set the bar higher than in their first seasons. 

Just like everyone in the Belichick coaching tree is a loser, everyone in the Shanahan coaching tree is a winner. 

And even though he didn't play at all, the Vikings got a good look at JJ. They were confident enough in him to let Darnold walk after he went 14-3 with them. Darnold signed a very reasonable $33M per season deal. 

Anyone else see the line "First Team to 6 runs"?

Padres were -260......up 5-0. 

That just went up in smoke. 

@Mskeets

Hawaii has always have a loose, undersized line haven't they? 

It would make sense if you've got a regular program with big dudes that can push people around to stick to the run and try to play ball control.

And yes, Stanford hasn't had a good QB in years. And no, it's not that easy to find a Division 1, Pac-12 QB off the streets.