FINGER LAKES PICKS

September 23rd

MLB

Point Total Over 8.5(100)
PHILADELPHIA (D BUCHANAN) vs MIAMI (A CONLEY)

Philadelphia +186 (11.1 total runs projection) Loss 7-16
New York Mets (Degrom) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Morgan)

Boston +126  (12.1 total runs projection) Won 5-4
Boston Red Sox (Kelly) vs. Chicago White Sox (Samardzija)

11 Plus Total Runs System

Divisional Underdogs

With this system you are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division. Because teams play so many more games against teams in their division, there is a greater chance that the underdog will win the game than if they were playing a team outside of their division. More times than not the team with the better starting pitcher on paper will be the team favored to win. The reason that you go against these pitchers is the fact that they have likely faced a given team within their division numerous times, and the more opposing players face a pitcher the more likely the hitters will eventually succeed.

There are a ton of games that fall under this system each year.  In fact, since 2004 the record for this system is a whopping 2114-2635 for an ROI of +3.3%. Because there are so many opportunities, betting $100 on each game (with average odds of +135.4) in this situation would have earned you an impressive $15,807.

Last year my ROI was a wopping +6.6%. With $100 bets I earned a plus $3300.00 Not bad for a few minutes a day. A very profitable but very unusual year.

I will begin posting soon.

I

August 19th

MLB Point Total Over 6.5(-110)
LA DODGERS (C KERSHAW) vs ST. LOUIS (S MILLER)
Pitching: Listed


MLB Point Total Over 6.5(-125)
WASHINGTON (G GONZALEZ) vs SAN FRANCISCO (R VOGELSONG)
Pitching: Listed

MLB 2014
4 WINS - 6 LOSSES =.400

Point Total Over 7.5 (105)
LA DODGERS (H J RYU) vs ST. LOUIS (J LACKEY)
Checked "Listed"

964. Boston Red Sox +119
966. Tampa Bay Rays +118
972. Philadelphia Phillies +143
978. Colorado Rockies +132

Game #1
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics 10:05 PM EST

The Oakland A's have gotten it done in the AL West each of the last two years, winning the division. They are primed to win a third straight AL West Title this season, and lead the majors in run differential, as they have gotten great hitting and pitching. Scott Kazmir has regained the form he showed as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher in Tampa Bay before injuries slowed him down. Kazmir owns an 11-3 record with a stellar 2.38 ERA. Brett Oberholtzer is on the other side of the spectrum for Houston as he has struggled to a 2-7 record, and a 4.50 ERA. Oakland leads the major leagues, having produced 10 runs or more 14 times on the season, as well as owning 46 wins by more than a run. Oakland cruises in this one
Pitching: Listed
HOU: Brett Oberholtzer (2-7, 4.50)
OAK: Scott Kazmir (11-3, 2.38)
Play: Oakland -1.5 (-110)

Game #2

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates -118

The Dodgers snapped the Pirates three game winning streak by jumping on the Buccos early for five runs and holding on the rest of the way with solid pitching. The early run support was a bit out of character for the Dodgers of late, but the excellent pitching was not. Tonight they give the ball to Josh Beckett, who despite a 6-5 record, is having a tremendous resurgent season. He may not quite be the Josh Beckett of Marlins and Red Sox (early tenure) lore, but he’s been pretty darn good sporting one of the lowest ERA’s in the National League.

Beckett missed about two week’s worth of starts with a brief trip to the DL, but is expected to be fine tonight with no noted pitch restriction.

Opposing Beckett will be another start making a long-awaited return to the mound, Vance Worley. Worley was a fill-in earlier in the season and did a nice job stepping into the rotation. He is making his first start since a rough July 8th outing against St. Louis. However, he has struggled against the Dodgers in his career mightily, surrendering nine runs in just eight innings pitched.

You don’t want to allow too many runs with the way Josh Beckett has pitched this season. Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .448 against Pittsburgh in 16 career games and notched three hits and reached base five times last night. I like him to help the Dodgers get a few early runs and for Beckett to handle the rest. Add in that I can get the Blue Crew.
Pitching: Listed
LAD: Josh Beckett (6-5, 2.26)
PIT: Vance Worley (2-1, 3.38)
Play:Los Angeles Dodgers +109



Game #3

Tampa Bay Rays/St Louis Cardinals
Pitching: Listed
TB: Jake Odorizzi (5-8, 4.01)
STL: Adam Wainwright (12-4, 1.83)
Play: Under 7

Game #1
Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees 7:05 pm ET
The Reds have been one of the best teams in baseball since early June. They have withstood injury after injury, and even now are battling through the absences of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. But they’ve continued to win, and their pitching is a big reason why.
Meanwhile, things are less-than-cheery in the Bronx. Their starting pitching has been suspect all season with a staff ERA of 4.00, and now with Tanaka joining Nova and Sabathia on the DL, their pitching desperation has gotten even more dire. David Phelps has been bestowed with the challenge of carrying an injured staff, and with an ERA right around the staff average, I’m not sure he is up for the task.
The Reds counter with Mike Leake, who got roughed up a bit in his last outing but has been a good Interleague pitcher in his career, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.11 ERA in six career starts. Perhaps it is his ability to catch people off-guard with the crafty pitching approach that doesn’t dazzle, but has a way of being surpringly effective.
I like the momentum of the Reds and the pitching advantage of Leake over Phelps. Factor in the HUGE Cincy bullpen advantage, and even with the diminished roster they are an attractive bet at slightly plus-money.

Pitching: Listed
CIN: Mike Leake (7-7, 3.54)
NYY: David Phelps (3-4, 3.94)

Play: Cincinnati Reds +107


Game #2
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels 10:05 PM ET
The Angels have finally taken their talent on paper and put it in the standings, staying within striking distance of the Oakland A's They will have their ace on the mound for this one in Jered Weaver. Weaver has been close to automatic at home with dazzling starts and great backup from the bullpen. Weaver ranks #1 in the AL in runs allowed per game with pitchers that have over 100 decisions, including the bullpen, at 3.6 a contest. He has not disappointed vs. Seattle where he is 14-9 lifetime with a 3.30 ERA. With closer Joe Smith having retired 26 of the last 27 hitters he has faced, this is a one-two punch with significant line value.

Pitching: Listed
SEA: Hisashi Iwakuma (8-4, 2.98)
LAA: Jered Weaver (10-6, 3.45

Play: Los Angeles Angeles -125

Game #3
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels 10:05 PM ET
Play: Under 7.5


Game #4
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers 7:05 PM ET

Pitching: Listed
CLE: Trevor Bauer (3-4, 3.84)
DET: Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 3.04)
PLAY: OVER 8 -110

Game #1
Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants 3:45 PM EST
The San Francisco Giants were not as good as the 43-23 team we saw to start the season, nor are they as bad as the one that has gone 7-18 since. The good part is that they have gone from being severely over-valued to a team that is now under-valued. The Giants dropped two straight in Oakland, but won here last night at home 5-2. Both Scott Kazmir and Tim Hudson have had strong starts to their season, and each enters with an identical 2.53 ERA on the season. Oakland has been good, but has met their match on the road in interleague games when they take on a winning team where they are an ugly 17-42 in their last 59. Oakland has really struggled on the other side of the bay, as they have a 3-13 mark in their last 16 in San Francisco.
Pitching: Listed
OAK: Scott Kazmir (10-3, 2.53)
SF: Tim Hudson (7-5, 2.53)
Play: San Francisco +114


Game #2
Washington Nationals/Baltimore Orioles 7:05 pm EST
Pitching: Listed
WAS: Gio Gonzalez (6-4, 3.52)
BAL: Wei-Yin Chen (8-3, 4.12)
Play: Over 8 -120


Game #3
New York Yankees/Cleveland Indians 7:05 PM EST
Pitching: Listed
NYY: David Phelps (3-4, 4.01)
CLE: T.J. House (1-2, 4.24)
PLAY: OVER 8 -105

I was thinking of posting here on a regular basis but after reading some of the post I think I must have arrived at a preschool forum instead of an adult sports forum

Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals 8:15 PM EST

No team has gotten more mileage out of their pitching staff than the St. Louis Cardinals over the last month. They shutout Pittsburgh last night 2-0, and it was their 7th shutout since June 7th, just a month of games. The Cards have also held nine other opponents to 2 runs or fewer. Pittsburgh is certainly capable of matching them on the mound, as the Pirates have allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. St. Louis has played to an 8-1-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher, and are 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 games vs. a winning team. The Pirates have seen just 6 of their last 21 road games vs a winning team make it OVER the total. Both teams have shown mediocre offenses with stellar pitching, which is a recipe for a low-scoring game.
Pitching: Listed
PIT: Vance Worley (2-1, 2.28)
STL: Carlos Martinez (2-3, 3.91)

Play: UNDER 8 (-115)

Play #1
Minnesota Twins/Seattle Mariners 10:10 pm EST
Pitching: Listed
MIN: Kevin Correia (4-10, 4.95)
SEA: Hisashi Iwakuma (6-4, 3.33)

Play: Over 7 (-120)


Play #2
PITTSBURGH PIRATES/ ST LOUIS CARDINALS 8:15 PM EST
Pitching: Listed
PIT: Charlie Morton (5-9, 3.30)
STL: Adam Wainwright (11-4, 1.89)

PLAY: OVER 7 (+100)


Play #3
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays 7:10 PM EST
The Tampa Bay Rays come home off a successful road trip, and they will open a series against former teammate James Shields and the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have played well on the road where they are 4-1-1 in their last six road series. Shields is certainly comfortable on the mound in Tampa Bay where he was 72-45 as a member of the Rays staff when pitching at home, and his last 24 starts here when with the Rays show them at 18-6. His only appearance against his former team shows a win where he worked seven innings, striking out seven, and allowing two runs on just five hits. The Rays are just 5-14 in their last 19 at home vs. a team with a winning record, and Kansas City is 20-6 on the road in Shields' last 26 starts
Pitching: Listed
KC: James Shields (8-4, 3.93)
TB: Jake Odorizzi (4-7, 4.18)

Play: Kansas City (+116)

Selection #1
Tampa Bay Rays/Detroit Tigers 8:00 PM EST

This is a low total for an American League game but both pitchers have been hot lately as Rick Porcello of the Tigers has allowed no runs in his last three starts. He has been pitching better than recent Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. David Price of the Rays has an ERA of 1.54 in his last three starts. I see a game in the 3-2 range.
Pitching: Listed
TB: Price (7-7, 3.50)
DET: Porcello (11-4, 3.12)

Play: Under 7.5 -120

Selection #2
Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland Athletics 4:05PMEST

Don't Let the combined ERA of today's starters fool you in this game. The over is looking really good. The A’s start Jeff Samardzija who was recently traded for from the Chicago Cubs. Samardzija has a 2-7 record but a 2.83 ERA this season in Chicago. This is not the National League. Could be a rough introduction to the American League.

Pitching: Listed
TOR: Hutchison (6-6, 3.81)
OAK: Samardzija (2-7, 2.83)

Play: Over 7 1/2 -115