rb_fine_nine

Thank you  

Hope the thread was helpful to anyone who logically looked into this.  Everything I've ever learned about watching NBA in the past, public perception, Vegas odds, etc came into play before making these plays in the finals.

BOL to all of you.  Regular season MLB wagering aside, see you all in the NFL season!!  

I couldn't agree more! 

My take on the first two games has held up so far, let's hope it continues .  I'll post my wagers.

I like the HEAT to win the title.  Even if I'm wrong, I'm confident that I will profit at the end.

MY BETS FOR THIS SERIES:

GAME 1 - OKC -5 (1/2 unit), OKC ML (1 unit)

GAME 2 - HEAT ML if I correctly predict game 1.  OKC ml to win 2.5 units if Heat win game 1

GAME 3 - Heat ML to win 1 unit (if I correctly predict games 1 and 2) or Heat ML to win 2 units if Heat are down 0-2.  Under no circumstance do I bet OKC ml in this game.

Game 4 - If Heat are up 2-1, taking Heat ML to win 1 unit.  If OKC is up 2-1, taking Heat ML to win 1 unit.  If Heat are up 3-0, taking Heat ML to win title and OKC adjusted spread.  Both teams will lay everything on the line in this game.  Historically, game 4s are the most competitive game of NBA series.

Game 5 - If tied 2-2 or OKC up 3-1, taking Heat ml for 1 unit based on motivational edge.  If Heat up 3-1, taking Heat ml to win the title.

Game 6 - If Heat up, taking Heat to win the title for 1 unit.  If OKC up, taking OKC to win the title for 1 unit.

Game 7 - Would take OKC to win the title for 1 unit.  Hardest thing in any sport is to beat a team in their house for a championship.  1 unit on the under as well as nerves tend to be very high in these rare type of games and shots/points come at a premium.

NOTE: In the 2-3-2 format began in 1985, the hardest thing for the team with home court has been to win 2 out of 3 on the road. The odds of a team without home court stealing one are significantly higher.  This and Miami's experience and ability to play suffocating defense plays a large role in my Miami selection.

BOL 

Wish I had done this research this year before betting the playoffs!! 

 

Going back and looking at stats from the past 7 years of NFL playoffs, I noticed some interesting trends.  I'm posting this on this gambling board hoping it helps everyone make $$.  I will not list specific games, season stats, etc, but in a nutshell attempt to capture what I found.  I will personally follow these religiously going forward.  Barring injuries, teams fitting certain criteria demonstrated a strong probability to advance to the conference finals, superbowl, or win it all: 

 

Strongest Trend: 

- defenses that allowed the lowest yards per attempt, had the highest average percentage of negative passing plays (resulting in a sack or a pick), and allowed the lowest average percentage of 3rd down conversions had a very high probability to win it all

 

Scoring Defense Trend: 

- teams that led the league in scoring defense had an extremely good shot to make it to at least the conference title game

 

Underdog trends: 

- High power offensive teams (24ppg or more in the regular season) that are playoff underdogs have a great chance of covering and outright winning, particularly if they showed signs of being able to contain opponent rushing (under 100ypg) entering the playoffs.  The caveat is their opponent was not rated in the top 5 in overall defense.

 

- Good offensive teams (21ppg or more in regular season) with a more prolific QB than the opposition and facing a middle of the pack scoring defense (ranked 10-20) had a great shot at covering as underdogs and even outright winning

 

- teams that allowed less than 15ppg in the regular season playing and opponent that allowed more than 18ppg had a great chance at covering as underdogs (barring injuries)

 

Rookie QB/lower rated QB teams:

Teams with rookie or lower rated QBs in the playoffs were suicide bets.  The only exceptions were teams with a dominant defense in the top 5 in NFL in scoring, rushing yards allowed, and total yards allowed

 

Passing Yards per game average:

Teams that averaged more than 75 passing ypg than their opponents playing as underdogs had an outstanding chance to cover the pointspread and send the game over.  In situations fitting this criteria, a 7-point teaser on the underdog and the over was as good as gold.

 

I'm hoping to discover stats showing similar trends and patterns for the NBA and college basketball as the playoffs for these will be upon us in no time.

 

 

Hope this helps.  Hope everyone enjoyed the superbowl as well, what a game!!  I was strongly hoping for the Cardinals win(always root for the dog), and congratulate all the Cards backers.  Congrats to all the "true" Steelers fans as well, and condolences to the Steelers pointspread backers, who lost their $$ and watched the team they bet on celebrating (the worst feeling for a gambler  IMO) 

There is really not much to analyze in this game.  Though the Ravens have a stellar defense, the Steelers easily had the best defense in the NFL this season.  From harrasing opposing QBs to holding teams to very few points, Pitt has been a force in the NFL this year.  Ravens defeated a mediocre Miami team.  The Titans dominated the Ravens statistically and literally gave the game away in turnovers.  If Tennessee does not caugh up the football in the red zone three times, the Ravens would lose the game by double digits.  Pitt on the other hand soundly defeated a San Diego team that is a force on offense.  San Diego was absolutely no match for the Steelers.  The Ravens offense will be hard pressed to accomplish anything against the Steelers.  Add to the mix a banged up defense and a rookie QB playing his first conference final on the road against a terrific defense in a hostile environment, the Ravens could be in for a very long day.  Flacco will have to play a mistake free game and the Ravens defense will have to play out of its mind to stand a chance in this game.

Going with the better defense.  Few will argue that Eagles have a more superior defense than Arizona

 

-  Eagles have the best scoring defense in the NFC regular season and NFC playoffs

 

- Over the last 6 games, Eagles gave up 10.7ppg (Cards 25ppg)

 

- Over the season, Eagles gave up 18.1ppg (Cards 26.6ppg)

 

- Eagles played 3 home and 3 road games their last 6.  Cards played 4 home and 2 road games their last 6.  Eagles went 5-1 ATS and the Cards went 4-2 ATS.  The ability to win and cover in the process is generally a mark of a good team.

 

Power Ranking based on last 6 games:  Philly has a +13.6ppg disparity and Cards are +0.3.  Cards playing at home would make the line +10.3.

 

Power Ranking based on Season:  Philly has a +7.94ppg disparity and Cards are +0.06.  Cards playing at home makes the line +4.88

 

Playoff Power Ranking:  The Cards have a power ranking of +13.  The Eagles have a power ranking of +12.  This is based on the point differencial average in their two wins.

 

Yes the Cards have played great in the playoffs.  Yes their crowd will be in a frenzy come game-time.  Yes Kurt Warner has a solid playoff track record.  Yes teams that beat a defending superbowl champ have a poor ATS record in their next game.  Yes home teams are 56-30 or something all time in conference championship games.  All that said, I still feel that the Cardinals will hard pressed to prevail.  If the game is close, the Eagles stand a good chance to get a stop or generate a crucial turnover.  Eagles have held their opponents to 14 or fewer points in 11 of 18 games, the Cards have done it on 5 occasions.  Defense has been known to be the difference maker time and time again.  If the Cards outplay the Eagles in this area, hats off to them.  I do not see it happening.

Good Luck 

All... after reading plenty of comments from posters on this site regarding the legitimacy of online blackjack, I decided to test it for myself using a large sample data.  I can absolutely confirm for you all that it is not legit.  I know there are some people on here that may not believe that, and luckily most feel that it is rigged.  I tested it for myself and fully believe that online BJ is bogus.  I lost a $100 in the process but it was well worth the truth.  I hope this saves all of you who play it or have the temptation to play it your money.  You are better off giving your money to a homeless person.

 

I tested this with a sample I felt was decent enough to see trends.  There certainly were.  An overwhelming majority of hands put the player at a significant disadvantage.  I played exactly 400 hands of blackjack on Sportsbook.com , confirmed the results of every hand, and found the following.

 

DEALER:

- The dealer showed a face card 311 times (77.75%)

 

- The dealer showed a 7, 8, or 9 on 51 occasions (12.75)

- I hit a natural blackjack 22 times (5.5%)

 

- I hit a natural 17, 18, 19 or 20 on 76 occasions (19%)

 

- Of the 311 times the dealer showed a face card, I did not have a 17 through 20 and was forced to play/form a hand on 235 out of 400 hands (58.75%)

 

- My longest consecutive winning or pushing streak was 7 hands

 

- When increasing my previous bet by 100% (ex $2 to $4), I noticed that the dealer showed a face card 65% of the times

 

- When increasing my previous bet by 200% (ex $2 to $6), I noticed that the dealer showed a face card 75% of the times

 

- When increasing my previous bet by 300% (ex $2 to $8), I noticed that the dealer showed a face card 80% of the times

 

 

Final analysis:  I played against the dealer to the best of my logic and ability suggested in Blackjack.  I would say that my instincts were very sharp.  The only reason I lost only a $100 was because of doubling down in the rare situations where I had favorable cards displaying.  I won about 70% of my double down hands which made up for the majority of losing hands.  The "luck" of the dealer was downright unreal.  Even the sharpest blackjack player in the world would not stand a prayer against online blackjack over the course of time, particularly at Sportsbook.com.

 

 

Hope this helps.  Please resist the temptation to play online blackjack.  All of us at times have suffered a bad beat in sports and try to recover it on cards.  It will not be worth your time or money.

 

=====================

AFC:

 

SD vs Indy - I'm going with the Colts here as they are healthy and rested, and have to feel extremely confident.  The Colts are also tied for the best record in the AFC at 10-2 and played in a much tougher division.  The Chargers have to be feeling good to get in the playoffs with a 4 game win streak.  However, I feel that their lack of competition in a weak division and more inconsistent play throughout the year will catch up to them.

 

Miami vs Balt - Going with the Ravens here.  Even though Flacco is a rookie QB playing his first playoff game on the road, he is supported by a phenomenal defense that has allowed the third fewest points in the NFL this season.  The Ravens offense is also better than the Dolphins.  The biggest reason I feel that Miami will struggle will be the strength of the Ravens run defense, which will force the game into Pennington's hands.  The Ravens offensive and defensive lines are a force and will likely control the game.  This game will not be pretty for Miami.

 

Tennessee vs Baltimore - Going with the Titans.  The Ravens will be playing a rested team that has had a chip on its shoulder the entire season.  The Titans have been regarded as an overrated team for their record.  Their style of play is regarded as one that can be overcome by a good offense.  The Titans defense is equally as dominant as the Ravens, if not more.  This will be the game I actually feel the Titans would have an advantage in the running game with Johnson and White.  Flacco will face the kind of pressure he only saw against the Steelers, and the Ravens passing game will struggle mightily.  The Titans will be very motivated and prove that they are a force in the NFL playoffs.

 

Pitt vs Indy - Going with the Colts.  The Steelers will try to put all kinds of pressure on Manning in this game and force the Colts to beat them on the ground, an area in which the Colts have not exceled this year.  That said, Manning is one of the smartest players in the game.  If this game turns into a grind out battle, I do not see Addai and the Colts run offense have a chance against the Steelers D-line.  I do see Manning pick apart the Steelers with short passes and force them to not put 8 in the box.  The Colts would have to establish their short passing game early and often to have a chance in this game.  The Colts run defense is pretty stout as well and I don't see Pittsburgh exploiting them on the ground.  This matchup has the potential to turn into a battle between Big Ben and Manning.

 

Tennessee vs Indy - Tennessee's defense has been the staple of the team the entire season.  I cannot see their defense folding at this stage with the opportunity to go to the Superbowl.  Manning is also one of the game's most elite players, and at this stage is tough to go up against.  All things considered, I will go with a team that has played stellar the entire season over a team who despite a lengthy win streak has squeaked by a lot of mediocre opponents.

 

AFC CHAMP - TENNESSEE

 

NFC:

 

Arizona vs Atlanta - Going with the Cardinals here.  Though the Cardinals have played poorly lately, they were playing well prior to clinching the division and the playoffs.  The Cardinals have been stellar at home, posting a 6-2 record.  The Cardinals will have a HUGE edge at the QB position, and have the potential to absolutely pick apart the Atlanta secondary.  If the Cardinals defensive line is able to control Michael Turner, who will be starting in his first playoff game, it could be a very long afternoon for the Falcons.  Not to mention this is a rookie QBs first playoff game, on the road.  Contrary to Joe Flacco and the Ravens, Matt Ryan will not have the benefit of a dominant defense.

 

Vikings vs Eagles - This is a game between two teams with very identical style of play.  All things considered, I'm going with the Eagles.  The Eagles have played in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.  The Eagles possess a strong run defense that is capable of containing Adrian Peterson.  Minnesota can also contain the equally explosive Brian Westbrook.  The difference in this game will be the QBs.  Unless Tarvaris Jackson comes out and matures into a poised QB in a hurry, the entire game will rest on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson.  It took the Eagles a miracle to reach the playoffs, and I think they continue their improbable run for at least one more game

 

Carolina vs Arizona - Going with Carolina.  The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL this year and possess a very solid and balanced team capable of exploding at all levels.  Arizona has a swiss cheese defense compared to Carolina.  The Panthers are dominant at home and Arizona struggles on the road.  Arizona will be exposed in the worst way in this game.

 

NYG vs Philly - Going with the Giants.  3 words.  Earth, wind, and fire.  The Giants have been a juggernaut all year and when put in a position of adversity have thrived.  They have also exceled with the burden of expectation on them all year, and this game will be no different.  The Giants have dominated on the ground against just about everyone, and no matter who is in their backfield, the player has thrived.  Philly looks like a superbowl contender one week and an inept team the next.  Who knows which Philly team shows up here.  I'll take consistency anyday over potential.

 

NYG vs Carolina - In a rematch of the NFC game that decided home field, I'm going with the Panthers.  Yes, you heard it here.  The Panthers have been the model of consistency throughout the season.  They were the CLASS of the division in which every team finished .500 or better.  They pushed the Giants to the limit in the first matchup, which the Giants were very fortunate to win.  The Panthers running game is absolutely ridiculous.  They also have the deep passing threat with Steve Smith.  If the Panthers are able to sustain the Giants running game to some degree, the game will fall into the hands of Eli Manning.  I do not see Eli replicating his magic from last year.  The Panthers advance here.

 

NFC CHAMP - CAROLINA

 

 

Tennessee vs Carolina - This will be a matchup of the ages.  Both teams are mirror images of each other on offense, possessing a dominant running game.  The difference in this game will be the team that gets defensive stops in the most crucial juncture of the games.  In 2008, there has been no team more consistent on defense than the Titans.

 

2008 SUPERBOWL CHAMPS - TENNESSEE TITANS

 

 

I can't wait until the playoffs get started!!

1-1 on the night courtesy of the Suns inability to play half court defense.  Oh well 

First, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone!! 

 

Of all the games on board today, I have had my eyes on these two in particular.  I wanted to share my insight on these game...please provide any input you have and best of luck with your selections.

 

Spurs/Hornets - My pick is the SUNS.

Spurs are 6-4 in their last 10 road games, with 4 of the 6 victories coming against opponents with a combined record of 28-84.  The Suns are 7-3 in their last 10 home games, with the 3 losses coming against teams with a combined record of 52-31.  5 of the 7 wins in their last 10 home games came against Orlando, Detroit, Denver, Utah, and Portland, all of which are at least comparable or better teams than the Spurs (in my opinion).  The Spurs are also missing Oberto while the Suns have no injuries to report.  With all these considered, I'm siding with the home team laying 2 points in this bitter rivalry.

 

Celtics/Lakers - My pick is UNDER.

Everyone is aware of the Celtics win streak.  The biggest factor for the streak has been a dominant defense.  The Lakers have been dominant on their home court as well and play much better defense at home.  This is a bitter rivalry and its hard to predict which team will come out more motivated.  Despite the scoring prowess of both teams, a stellar win record such as the one they possess would not occur without the ability to play solid defense.  I'll take my chances with the UNDER 201.5