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replied to
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
in NFL Betting
i feel like i'm doing my community service for the year just by bumping this post
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vanzack | 735 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sfgiant: veto22 what sportsbook is that in your avatar? looks like the hilton to me |
poundthatbaby | 45 |
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You're damn right, I'll do that. The left lane is for passing!
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crapsplayer | 75 |
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The morons who think the loser pays the juice are the same guys that think they are better off hedging the last leg of a parlay to "guarantee money".
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crapsplayer | 75 |
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replied to
Stop with the emotions and look at the math....Belichick made the right call
in NFL Betting
great post
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tallguyindc | 111 |
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replied to
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by freek: What is the math on +450 = 18.18% and -600 = 85.71%? +450 means bet 100 to win 450 -600 means bet 600 to win 100 initial stake/(initial stake + win amount) = percentage chance they are paying you for 100/(100+450) = 18.18% 600/(600+100) = 85.71% of course this still includes the vig which FreakyFresh shows how to remove. |
vanzack | 735 |
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Also, I have no idea what your last two paragraphs have to do with this discussion.
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onion99 | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont: If you are asking others for answers then you should at least be kind enough to give them answers also rather than one liners. Its obvious you did your homework before posting that question knowing that you know you are correct. What do they call that? begging the question or something like that? Either way, odds are always bad- one way or another majority of people lose their money even when the odds are close to being even. Odds do not factor in stupid people like me or emotional people like me. Stupidity and betting on emotions is not uncommon and many people have lost their shirts as a result. If we were all reasonable at all times, I doubt many of us would have not lost as much money as we have. Go to a poker table or bj table- there are many good players but when they are on tilt, there money goes out the window faster than their reasonable judgement. I'm not sure if you factored that into the odds since I doubt that is used as a mathematical factor but now your odds are even worse.
You fail to realize that the original question I posted was not what this thread turned into. Of course I came in with prior knowledge on the subject. However, the hedging aspect which ended up being debated here was not what I was looking for. I was frustrated that the majority of the responses I had gotten to that point were debating a point that I had already dismissed (and ridiculed for dismissing). Like I said before, I was seeing if there were valid scenarios (hedging not being one of them) that I had not thought of. |
onion99 | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont: I couldn't resist but register just to let you know that you don't have to be a smart ass and answer people's answers with smart ass responses. People are trying to genuinely help you so why are you pushing it back into their face just because you know something they might not? Be a man (or woman if you are) and be kind to others and explain yourself- educate others. And if thats not your purpose then GTFO. People on this forum are just trying to win money and learn something- they are not heare to be combative towards each other. Hey, one day when you have a real question, others will be kind enough to answer it to the best of their knowledge. It already seems as if you know all the answers to your question so why would you post a question you already know? Actually I did try to explain it, but others bashed me and got off of my original topic. Was the person telling me "my bankroll is destined to end up six feet under" really trying to help me? I was seeking responses from people who understood the topic and hoping maybe someone would come up with a reason that I hadn't thought of. I'm sorry my "rude" response got you so worked up that you had to register and let me know about it. |
onion99 | 62 |
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replied to
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
in NFL Betting
"...hedging is a bad idea"
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vanzack | 735 |
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replied to
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by HonLi: Hey Van, First of all the 4 team parlay with 3 early games and 1 later game really is a bad idea when you break it down like that. But I have a hypothetical question for you: Say you got a little buzzed and bet a 4 team parlay and you ACCIDENTALLY mixed in a Sunday night game as your 4th. You hit the first 3 Now what would you do? Take the Gauranteed 420 or Take a 50/50 shot at hitting the 4 teamer? pretty sure the title of this thread answers this question. |
vanzack | 735 |
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replied to
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
in NFL Betting
Holy crap. I just read this whole thing and it is freaking hilarious. Some of DevilFan's idiotic posts almost had me in tears. About 30 people revealed themselves as complete morons. I have to commend those of you who actually took the time to try to help these people out, but this just further supports my belief that there is no hope for the human race.
Sorry to bump this, but I couldn't resist. |
vanzack | 735 |
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Wow, thanks for the link to that thread. I knew the topic had probably come up before. Looks like I've got some fun reading to do.
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onion99 | 62 |
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Thank you, HugeBallz. Very much what I was looking for.
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onion99 | 62 |
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sure, hedging here guarantees you money. however, in the long run you will make more money letting it ride in parlays rather than hedging.
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MikeLowery | 228 |
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Ok fine, I won't call it "juice", though it is practically the same thing. Does anyone have thoughts on my original post?
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onion99 | 62 |
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Honestly, if you don't realize how you are paying juice in a parlay, you really shouldn't be gambling. I should have known better than to expect logical responses here.
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onion99 | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ManassaMauler: Juice - The bookmaker's commission on a losing bet, also known as "vigorish." With a parlay you don't pay a comission on the losing bet...just what you risk... But you HAVE paid commission by getting only back 6 to 1 instead of 7 to 1. Anyone who actually understands the math behind it care to comment? |
onion99 | 62 |
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sorry i meant, 7 to 1 not 8 to 1
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onion99 | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ManassaMauler: um..where do YOU find juice in a parlay??? If there were no juice in a parlay, you would get paid 8 to 1 on a 3-teamer instead of 6 to 1. |
onion99 | 62 |
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