djkevLV

Ok guys, hear me out...

I've been messing around with the total Runs+Hits+Errors bet and this is what I've noticed from the last 2-3 weeks.

FYI I am located in Las Vegas and mostly use Caesars app, they do have this wager and I think BOL have it as well. Sometimes Caesars won't post the R+H+E total until like maybe an hour before first pitch, not sure why but anyways.

When betting under the total, I've noticed that Runs+Hits+Errors seems to be a strictly better wager in almost every case I've seen and here's why..

When the game goes under the posted total, in almost every scenario, the R+H+E also goes under the total.

It is EXTREMELY rare that a game will go under the total but go over the R+H+E, if I had to guess, maybe 1 in 20 games

however

I have seen multiple games where the total goes over, but the R+H+E goes under. It happens almost every day, sometimes more than once a day. This probably happens 1 in 10 or even more frequently.

Meaning, if you bet the total under, you would have lost or pushed your bet, but if you bet the R+H+E under, you would have won.

So to me, it appears the R+H+E numbers that Caesars is putting out seems a bit inflated because of how often this is happening, almost daily.

I've been taking advantage of this and betting the R+H+E under instead of under total and it's worked out for me really well. You could also split your wager in half if you want.

For example, let's look at yesterday's games (2025-05-31)

Every game that went UNDER, also went UNDER R+H+E.

However, COL and NYM went OVER the total by 1.5 but the R+H+E was under the total.

Final score 2-8, o/u was 8.5.

RHE was 27, and the final R+H+E was 26

Does anybody else play the Runs+Hits+Errors, and what have you been noticing?

I think if I blindly bet every players props hits and or bases under im almost 100% confident i would have come out ahead in the end! It was just simply too many bets to place on top of all the unders and R+H+E

@Timealker

Sounds about right and when you add in unders for R+H+E many, many games that went slightly over or pushed, stayed under R+H+E effectively cancelling out the loss!!

I think this was a huge huge factor in my success, the R+H+E lines just feel totally inflated with the terrible batting

@dktt

 Most of my bets are between 100 to 300

Well I suppose I will take advantage of it now to build my bankroll until the books adjust and totals go back to being a 50/50 game, because in at least the last month or so, it has not even been close if you have been paying attention.

So, I posted this thread last week. https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/does-anyone-know-what-is-the-overall-over-under-record-this-season-103954624

After reading the comments, I took a leap of faith and bet under the total plus under runs+hits+errors on every single game the last 4-5 days and I am up over $2500. I literally woke up and spent 10 minutes putting in the wagers with absolutely 0 research. Insane.

If it was a total I felt questionable about, I bought an extra point. This did come into play and help out more than it hurt me overall. I live in Las Vegas and I mostly use William Hill mobile app, btw. I make some bets on MGM's app when the odds is better.

This is compared to spending hours researching pitchers and stats to try and strategically bet overs and unders, only to be up small at the end of the day, or many times even down and struggling to beat the juice. For MLB, I mostly play totals because I find the moneylines hard to beat personally and I just don't seem to do too well with it.

I just wanted to put this out there, because it literally feels like I am printing money, I don't know how much longer this will last but with the current state of pitching and the batting being some of the worst it's been in decades, I am going to continue to capitalize as long as I can before the books adjust. Do with this what you will!

@Luckydan

Holy shit Dan thanks for this, exactly what I was looking for, and very thoughtful insights from everyone in this thread.

Last 30 days has been brutal for over bettors and a dream for under bettors, I wonder if this will continue into the next 30 days or if weather changes and other factors will pull things back in a line a bit.

Whatever side you are on, good luck to you! It looks like for the foreseeable future under bettors will continue their trip down easy street while over bettors should be extra cautious and selective.

Because holy shit under bettors must be making a killing.

Pitchers have been dominating lately. Across MLB, we've seen a sharp rise in velocity, better pitch tunneling, and devastating breaking stuff thanks to modern analytics and biomechanics. Combine that with aggressive bullpen usage and defensive shifts (even post-ban adjustments), and it's no surprise that offense is struggling to keep up.

Scoring has been down overall, and a lot of games are going under the betting totals as a result. It's a pitcher's league right now, and if you're smart you've been taking advantage of that. I think you can blindly bet unders each day just based on your gut without a second of research and either be breaking even or in the black.

Thoughts?

Haven't bet a lot of NFL lately but noticed a trend of real slow and low scoring games, the totals have now adjusted as well. Is it just pure athleticism and elite defenses or is it the offensive players and QBs lacking the talent like they used to?

Back then, if your team was down by 7 or 10, you'd go no big deal.

These days being down by a TD and a FG feels like being down 2 goals in soccer.

There's not much value to be had anywhere on the board lately. If anyone's been crushing it what's your strategy?