Charles Schwab

Hit a couple just now as market opened. Like these numbers and course fits. Write up later 

Aaron Rai (45-1)

Ryo Hisatsune (110-1)

@Rollz

Rolls thanks for the insight as always.

Do you think Scottie plays in this after winning?

I’ve gotten to the point where I really don’t feel like taking action if he’s playing. (I don’t have access to a book where you can wager on a winner without Scottie factored in)

Haha I don’t blame you man. This is another really good set up for Scottie. I think he’ll probably play. He played the week after winning the masters last year and always plays this event. I thought about hitting the without Scottie market this coming week but really liked these numbers so just went ahead and slammed them hoping for a bit of a let down. I may come back on both rai and Hisatsune a little in the without market as well 

Top 20 (ties included):

Aaron Rai (+170)

The tour is headed to good ol’ Colonial Country Club this coming week which always presents a great challenge for these guys.  Colonial is a claustrophobic, tree-lined par 70 golf course measuring out at 7,289 yards. This venue values accuracy off the tee rather than distance given it is not a brutally long course and forces some awkward tee shots that’ll have players leaving the big stick in the bag at times. The typical high winds in the area, thick and penile Bermuda rough, and firm and fast greens will give a lot of these players problems. I’ll highlight below what I believe to be the best way to separate on this golf course.

You can truly separate on this golf course off the tee by staying in the fairways. These are some of the most narrow fairways that we see on the pga tour. If you miss them you will have to contend with some gnarly Bermuda rough, poor angles into greens, and potential tree trouble. This course historically has not allowed players to try to overpower it off the tee so

I’ll be looking for players with past success on positional courses and prefer accuracy off the tee. Of course due to the fact that players will be clubbing down quite often you will see less accurate players have success and is why I’m not exclusively looking for accuracy off the tee, but I do think being accurate with driver this week will be an edge.

Colonial can be a difficult course on approach with small, firm and fast green complexes. Most approaches here will come anywhere between 100-200 yds. An in form all around approach player will be rewarded here given the difficulty of approach shots into small, firm greens as well as the difficulty of up and downs when missing these greens. We typically see good approach players separate here simply because colonial provides some consequences when missing greens and greens that are difficult to hold approach shots on to begin with. These greens were actually redone in 2023 and were incredibly fast last year, I’d imagine they’re still running pretty hot. Players that have been sufficient with the irons feels like a must at colonial. I’ll also look at long term proximity with mid-irons and wedges.

Scrambling can be a challenge at this venue when chipping into small, fast green surfaces with some very subtle undulations. With how difficult this course is, generally won around 9-15 under par, being able to scramble increases in importance. To stay on pace players will have to get up and down pretty often given the difficulty of hitting these greens. We’ve generally seen good around the green players have success here and while I don’t think you need to be elite in that area, I still think being an above average scrambler is an advantage. With this not being a birdie fest, I won’t focus on putting too much. It’s not a super difficult putting venue on these quick bentgrass greens. I do think you can separate with the putter here but it’s not nearly as reliable as doing it with tee to green game. I’ll look at players who have had success putting on firm and fast greens but otherwise most of my weight will go into accuracy off the tee and recent approach play.

Continued…

Colonial will reward players who keep the ball in the fairway off the tee, in form approach players with long term short to mid-iron success, and proficient scramblers. I think this is a good week to look at comp courses as there are quite a few that play very similar to colonial. The 3 big ones that require virtually the same skill set include Innisbrook, Harbour town, and sedgefield. All courses that we consistently see on tour that really challenge accuracy off the tee, highly value approach play, and reward players that thrive in positional set ups. I will add it doesn’t get a whole lot better in terms of a good golf course set up for Scottie scheffler than this. He hits fairways at a high rate, he’s the best iron player in the world, and his putter is as hot as ever which is scary. Playing the w/o Scottie market this week may be a good move, not sure if I will yet but considering it. Have already bet rai and Hisatsune, both players that have had high end success on comp courses and have the skill set that im
looking for. Some other players that have my attention for outright consideration currently include Daniel Berger, Tommy Fleetwood, JT Poston, JJ Spaun, Lucas Glover. Overall feel like I have a good feel for this golf course at this point, still have some player research to do. Will continue to add plays throughout the week.

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)

Top 20 (ties included):

JJ Spaun (+175)

Emiliano Grillo (+280)

Here’s everything in so far 

Outrights:

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)

Aaron Rai (45-1)

Ryo Hisatsune (110-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Tommy Fleetwood (+225)

Top 20 (ties included):

Aaron Rai (+170)

JJ Spaun (+175)

Emiliano Grillo (+280)

Eric Cole (+300)

@Rollz

Rollz- thoughts on Nico?

@Boa33

I don’t mind that at all. 2nd and 16th at Waialae and innisbrook this year which are both similar courses and has really flashed the irons last 2 times out

Ever hit one of these? Ever?

@Wilde50

Have some respect, guy has hit multiple outright winners this year alone.

Im legitimately sorry you feel like you need to take time out of your day to shit on others on the internet. Wish you the best 

JJ Spaun (55-1)

Eric Cole (110-1)