Educated guess people, I will certainly compensate the closest to the hole and add 20% if it lands in the hole. To this minute I'm reading real time from the other side of world $73.62 as I type. Good luck in your prognostications. July 5th closing date. Contest closes june 25 @ midnight.
Can't wait for Dewey and Edison to make their pick due to their bias.
@JOHNNY_ODAE
I have written and spoken about this in quite a few places for a few months now.
I have been long LNG for quite some time now.
It is up over 30% since I last posted about my positioning.
I have been long in oil and gas for a while now.
It is up over 25% since the last posting on here.
I am very, very leveraged in just about every possible way with oil futures, oil stocks and equipment stocks, etc. At this point, large chunks of profit have been built in with stops already.
This current situation in the ME is only adding to the original thesis. In fact, the entire MENA macroeconomic instability has been a building concern for a while now because of various other issues.
With that being said, it is hard to actually lock in a particular price on a particular day. I will say if it stays above 75 this week it will hard for it not to continue upwards. If 75 holds, I think 83-85 would be possible on that date; if it does not hold, I think a drop back to 67-68 is likely. A lot will depend on reactions this week. If Iran does close the Strait of Hormuz, I think it could clear 100 easily and aim for 120.
But I still contend the thesis for long positions through the summer is the correct play. 
May. 3, 2025 - 5:08 AM ET
My energy outlook remains basically unchanged, so I won’t spend a lot on that. Even though gas/oil prices continue to drop, I think they have largely bottomed for now. I did think that a few weeks ago when they started to go up. But now we have seen a pullback. But I think they will continue to go up. As I have written before I have several long positions set up around this thesis. Natural gas I had been long since late summer and it absolutely surged. I am back in since it bounced off of $3. I could easily see it going up another 50% or even doubling. I am quite leveraged in all areas of this commodity. The only concern I have is the summer weather is setting in and the storage is now back up to where it should be. The exporting could see a dropoff as well. So, we shall see if it holds up through the summer. There is some concern in the housing market. The existing sales numbers had a big drop from a month ago. There is now about a 3% difference in interest rates on a new mortgage versus an existing mortgage. For several years there has been a tight correlation between sales and rates. So, this will be interesting to see what happens, especially in certain states, like California and Florida. The new home sales actually rose but the median prices were slightly lower than those for existing homes. There was an even bigger dropoff in new home building. Even though there is a large supply gap, there is a lack of delivery on affordable starting homes.
During election campaign, Trump promises that oil industry would "drill baby drill" but that isn't happening because of low oil price, OPEC increased production and slowing global economic growth. Besides, U.S. is already the largest oil producer under Biden administration. Apparently, environmental regulation never was the major factor in industry decisions. Stock prices of oil and gas companies have fallen since Trump took office.
@thirdperson
Yeah this is the aspect people do not even spend 5 seconds considering. In reality the GOP voter who would check the box for whatever dolt is trotted out slurps up the nonsense that Trump spews and does not even consider the truth or lack of to most all he says.
You cannot frack with low oil prices to any impact on supply so the big drillers who have the lower cost base like Exxon etc can frack and the DO frack but that is already factored into their production numbers, the marginal players cannot afford to frack say under 75-80 per.
Anyone with even 2 braincells knows that we ARE drilling and under Biden the production levels were at an ATH but the little brain dolts who listen to Trump say drill baby drill WANT to follow the fat pied piper even when it is 100% lies and has no basis in reality.
Trump also said he would lower oil and gas prices so which is it are we drilling via marginal fracking or are we having cheap gas, it cant be both.
It is mind boggling how so many people believe ANY word that comes out of the mouth of Trump, not like Trump really cares if his word are lies, he got the votes he wanted and whatever means necessary didnt matter.
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