PittVipers - 50 days - 100 plays - 60% winners?

With those three possibilities and assuming each week I go 6-4, , which is lower then I've yet to be, and risking 55$ on each bet and 25$ on each parlay the three possible +/- after the five days would be: +45$ .. OR .. +135$ .. OR .. +225$ (the average of that is +135$). 

The proper way to get the average of this situation is looking longterm. Since I am assuming my winning rate over the long term is 60%, this is the hypothetical situation over a 50 day, 100 play period, with me going 6-4 every five day period, for all ten periods.

Since I would be 60%, this meas that I have a 10% edge over the line. Meaning there is a 60% chance that I win any single game. So over a 100 day period we assume I would win 60 games and lose 40 games. This means that I win 50$ on 60 of the games and lose 55$ on 40 of the games (3000$ - 2200$ = +800$). 

As for the parlays, we are assuming that I have a 60% chance of winning any given game so I would have a 36% chance of winning a parlay (0.60 * 0.60 = 0.36 * 100 = 36%). This means for every 50 days of plays that I bet, I have a 36% chance of winning a parlay each night, meaning I would win 18 parlays on average, and lose 32 parlays. The odds are 2.6 to win a parlay; we are betting 25$ per parlay so 2.6 *25 = 65$ .. so 65$ * 18 parlays = 1,170$. Minus the 25$ you lose on the 32 parlays (25$ * 32 parlays = 800$)  .. leaves you at (1,170$-800$= 370$) on the parlays over every 50 day period.

This means on average over a 50 day, 100 play period following the picks you would be +1,170$. Now if I hit 70%, you would assume I would be +2805 after 50 days. If I were to continue at the rate I am at now (79%) , you would be +3,789$.

Now, let's say I only did mediocre over the 50 days and hit 55%, you would be +491$ on average.

Once again .. just food for thought.

Thanks guys. Monday is here. In the NBA I think Boston -5, Boston/Washington under 191 and Memphis +2.5 are all good bets but I am going with the freshest team, in Memphis. Boston should cover the -5 without motive, but they have motive now with three straight losses (to the leagues three best teams) with two of those games being decided by 2 points or less (2 and 1). They lost last night coming back by a double digit deficit to keep it close with the Lakers but they couldn't win, falling up short by 1 point. They should be hungry for a win, and have a chance right away to pound on a bad Washington team who really hasn't been the same since Arenas was suspended (though they have won their past two games, all be it vs. New York and New Jersey). The ONLY reason why Boston is not my play for today .. this is their fourth game in five days, and I refuse to bet on Washington games for the remainder of the season as they can be a tricky team to read with all the problems inside of that organization.

With four games in five days, with two of them being on the road and this being the 3rd road game in that period, the under looks like a strong bet. Add this to the fact that neither team has been scoring lately .. Washington with 7 unders in their last 10 games, as well as 6 unders in their last 8 home games .. as well as Boston with 5 unders in their last 8 games .. the bet in this game is definitely BOSTON, UNDER or nothing. I'm going to go with nothing, because Washington's playing and I don't know how tired Boston will be . That information is just for anyone betting that game.

I suggest if you have +1.5 to buy to 2, and if you have +2 to buy to +2.5 on the Memphis game .. it could be a nail biting finish. It is the Lakers though, and the line may rise on its own but I don't wan't to take the chance with the amount sharp money coming in on Memphis.

I like Memphis to beat the Lakers in what should a close back and forth game for a majority of the game. My line for this game accounting both teams and not not accounting for outside factors like, recent results and fatigue,  is LA Lakers -2. As for outside factors: this is the final game of an eight game road trip for the Lakers. They won five of the seven previous road games, including winning their last four in a row. In their previous game (LAST NIGHT) they hung on to beat the Boston Celtics by one point. In this game they led by twelve early, but looked sluggish at times and allowed Boston to get back into this game. It looks as though the fatigue is getting to them, and this will be their third road game in four nights. Kobe Bryant is listed as probable, but definitely not 100% healthy. 

Memphis has had the hot hand the second half of this month and are 6-3 since January 15th. They are currently only one game out of 8th playoff spot in the West. They are 17-6 at home this season, and did not have a game yesterday .. and should be rested and ready to go for this game, looking to avenge two straight losses. These teams met earlier in the season where lakers won by double digits, but that game was in Los Angeles and Memphis was not as well rounded into form as they are now. Lakers also were not finishing an 8 game road trip looking forward to going home. Expect a big night from all three Gasol, Randolph and Rudy Gay. Memphis can keep up with the Lakers scoring (averaging the same amount of points per game) and with the Lakers being tired on the end of  a long road trip, this is their game to be won.

This line opened at -2.5 and sharp money quickly came in on Memphis, moving the line to +2 and +1.5 at most books. Like I said earlier if you have +1.5 or +2 I suggest you buy a half point, in case of a Kobe buzzer beater. 

End Result: I see Memphis being up a 3-5 points with a minute to play in the 4th quarter and then whatever happens from there, happens .. you never know with Kobe on the court. If Lakers do win, I see it being a buzzer beater to win by 1 or 2. Two buzzer beaters in a row for him? I think the Lakers fall short and that Memphis is definitely the side to be on.