Posted:
#576
The idea behind this is that the goal is to win 6 games out of every 10 plays selected. So, for every five day period, to win 6 games I would need to go 2-0 once, with the other four days going 1-1 .. or 2-0 twice, going 0-2 one day and 1-1 the other two days .. or going 2-0 three times, and going 0-2 the other two days. That is if I only hit 6 games out of 10 (60%).
The proper way to get the average of this situation is looking longterm. Since I am assuming my winning rate over the long term is 60%, this is the hypothetical situation over a 50 day, 100 play period, with me going 6-4 every five day period, for all ten periods.
With those three possibilities and assuming each week I go 6-4, , which is lower then I've yet to be, and risking 55$ on each bet and 25$ on each parlay the three possible +/- after the five days would be: +45$ .. OR .. +135$ .. OR .. +225$ (the average of that is +135$).
The proper way to get the average of this situation is looking longterm. Since I am assuming my winning rate over the long term is 60%, this is the hypothetical situation over a 50 day, 100 play period, with me going 6-4 every five day period, for all ten periods.
Since I would be 60%, this meas that I have a 10% edge over the line. Meaning there is a 60% chance that I win any single game. So over a 100 day period we assume I would win 60 games and lose 40 games. This means that I win 50$ on 60 of the games and lose 55$ on 40 of the games (3000$ - 2200$ = +800$).
As for the parlays, we are assuming that I have a 60% chance of winning any given game so I would have a 36% chance of winning a parlay (0.60 * 0.60 = 0.36 * 100 = 36%). This means for every 50 days of plays that I bet, I have a 36% chance of winning a parlay each night, meaning I would win 18 parlays on average, and lose 32 parlays. The odds are 2.6 to win a parlay; we are betting 25$ per parlay so 2.6 *25 = 65$ .. so 65$ * 18 parlays = 1,170$. Minus the 25$ you lose on the 32 parlays (25$ * 32 parlays = 800$) .. leaves you at (1,170$-800$= 370$) on the parlays over every 50 day period.
This means on average over a 50 day, 100 play period following the picks you would be +1,170$. Now if I hit 70%, you would assume I would be +2805 after 50 days. If I were to continue at the rate I am at now (79%) , you would be +3,789$.
Now, let's say I only did mediocre over the 50 days and hit 55%, you would be +491$ on average.
Once again .. just food for thought.
0
fantastic...why i didnt see this thread weeks ago
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