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NBA & NCAA Season Long Hoops Chat - Hosted by The Peoples Champ, Featuring Expert BigD

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Posted: #7001

Locked in:

Greece U20 +32.5...ingame wager at halftime with them getting pumped 63-30 as a 1pt dog...regression to the mean here is a standard +EV autobet for me in games like these.

https://www.flashscore.ca/game/xz3lLXdf/#game-summary

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7002
5 Dimes officially posted Over Under win totals for a few teams in the NBA (surprisingly high on the Knicks (Fizdale factor?)and surprisingly low on the Lakers, very low on CLE):

Cleveland OU 26.5

Lakers OU 50.5

Knicks OU 34.5

GSW OU 64.5

Sixers OU 56

OKC OU 46.5 

Boston OU 57.5

Houston OU 56.5 







 
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Posted: #7003
Out of all these in the very weak east CLE OVER is my favorite bet.
 
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Posted: #7004

Greece loses by 22...easy 2h cover wire to wire...I like stealing win

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7005

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

5 Dimes officially posted Over Under win totals for a few teams in the NBA (surprisingly high on the Knicks (Fizdale factor?)and surprisingly low on the Lakers, very low on CLE):Cleveland OU 26.5Lakers OU 50.5Knicks OU 34.5GSW OU 64.5Sixers OU 56OKC OU 46.5 Boston OU 57.5Houston OU 56.5

OKC Over, Lakers Over, Warriors Under, Houston Over...no particular order...just how I feel at first glance at these #s...perhaps OKC being my fav.

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7006
Getting rid of Carmelo is always a + in the win column (except for the Knicks). Agreed OKC is a good bet (and the same opening OU as last year!)
 
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Posted: #7007

I would also expect George to be a lot more relaxed and effective now that he got paid...he "should" have a very good year

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7008
HR Derby:

Javier Baez +120 over Max Muncy

Muncy will be nervous, already heard him say last night that this is the biggest event he's ever been a part of.   I really thought Baez would be favored
 
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Posted: #7009
HR Derby:

Rhys Hoskins to win +550
 
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Posted: #7010
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Getting rid of Carmelo is always a + in the win column (except for the Knicks). Agreed OKC is a good bet (and the same opening OU as last year!)


who's gonna be that 3rd scorer is the question for OKC
 
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Posted: #7011
I just heard on VSIN that Bryce Harpers DAD is pitching the Derby pitches to him? 

Put me down for a first round win at home...

$210 to win $100 (Harper wins first round)
 
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Posted: #7012
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I just heard on VSIN that Bryce Harpers DAD is pitching the Derby pitches to him? 

Put me down for a first round win at home...

$210 to win $100 (Harper wins first round)

Robinson Cano's dad pitched to him when he won in Arizona I do believe

Bryce will win at least one round... it's not like it's a batting average contest  
 
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Posted: #7013

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I just heard on VSIN that Bryce Harpers DAD is pitching the Derby pitches to him? Put me down for a first round win at home...$210 to win $100 (Harper wins first round)

Yeah i heard that this morning too...they liked him because youve got to assume Bryce has seen dads bp pitches his whole life so thats quite the edge right there...you guys are sickos for betting this exhibition but i hope you all come out profitable tonight....cheers!

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7014
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Yeah i heard that this morning too...they liked him because youve got to assume Bryce has seen dads bp pitches his whole life so thats quite the edge right there...you guys are sickos for betting this exhibition but i hope you all come out profitable tonight....cheers!


Sickos?   Weren't you just live betting playground tetherball last week?  
 
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Posted: #7015

I was watching esports tetherball looking for +EV wagering opportunities...get your facts straight Mr. Stickball an_razz

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7016

Dru...i know youre lurking...and im sure you took the Over after the low scoring 14-5 1st Q in the Chilean Sea Bass league between Valdivia and Varas...ingame wager after the 1st Q was 118.5...and even better if you had the discipline to wait until half when it was 110.5...its sailed over with 3 min left in the 4th cool

...now thats how us Hoops Degen roll BWS an_speak

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7017
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Dru...i know youre lurking...and im sure you took the Over after the low scoring 14-5 1st Q in the Chilean Sea Bass league between Valdivia and Varas...ingame wager after the 1st Q was 118.5...and even better if you had the discipline to wait until half when it was 110.5...its sailed over with 3 min left in the 4th cool

...now thats how us Hoops Degen roll BWS an_speak



Thats what I get for sleeping late. 

The people's champ is on a roll. 

 
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Posted: #7018
HR Derby   
 
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Posted: #7019
Mr OU 161.5 U20 DR vs. US is calling us sickos!

I would have taken Cano that year if I had known that.

If I had the guts I could have gotten 3.5-1. So conservative...
 
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Posted: #7020
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Mr OU 161.5 U20 DR vs. US is calling us sickos!

I would have taken Cano that year if I had known that.

If I had the guts I could have gotten 3.5-1. So conservative...

Big edge there.   Harper's dad almost side-arming those pitches in low and inside, other guys just putting them over the plate
 
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Posted: #7021

Crusing thru the international hoops scoreboard scene i see a 19 pt 1st Q with an original line near 140...i missed out on this one but assume the ingame line would have been close to 122 after the 1st Q...i would have taken the over automatically purely based on experience tracking games with 1st Q totals under 20.

https://www.flashscore.ca/game/2uyjnMI7/#game-summary

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7022

This game flew over 120 with 4min left in the 4th Q

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #7023
Just looking at bets for tonight that could provide an edge and I found one:

MLB Props on BetOnline

Will there be a home run in the All-Star Game?

Yes -210

No +180

I looked back at the history of All-Star games and with basic math, there is an edge here, making me believe this line was pulled out of a hat (as many are, much like the Kawhi Leonard to the Lakers -160 prop bet on 5Dimes).


There have been 85 All Star Games throughout history.

In 17, a home run wasn't hit.

That translates to 20%. 

A -210 ML translates to 68% chance of winning and realistically should be priced at -400 or thereabouts for an 80% probability of a HR occurring historically. 

Now past events do not predict the future, but in exhibitions, they are a stronger predictor as this is a 'fan based' marketing event, hence, Bryce Harper 'winning' the Derby last night while his A) Father pitched to him B) Father pitched to him in the final round before the ball landed. HR are fan friendly! Catch my drift?

Viola, an exotic with value.

Amazingly, while Betonline is allowing a max bet of $525 here. I won't go that high. $100 win is the goal.

HR in All Star Game YES

$210 to win $100
 
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Posted: #7024
Oh and remember I said FS1 did not show the fouls Russia committed against Spain? 2 on ONE play in the box for a PK was never even discussed on the FS1 post-game.

Amazingly ESPN pulled the same shi* to shroud the father's fast pitch fiasco.

When the Harper home run highlights were shown, they showed all the bombs for all rounds! 

BUT when they showed Harper in the final round after he took a time out to go on the tear to tie it up?

The camera angle switched to Harper head to toe and didn't pan out to the stands. OF COURSE it didn't! That would show the father was pitching fast and rigging the contest screwing over all Schwarber 8-1 tickets.

Ya don't hit +800's ever day folks.

And these leagues want INTEGRITY FEES???? LOLOL.   
 
 
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Posted: #7025
Liz Cambage 53 points?

Packers, are you up on this girl??? Dallas Wings futures for the championship? Just curious. Is this an aberration and is Dallas any good...

When a woman scores 53 my antennae go up...
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