Lot of advantages of playing the dog, they don't need to win the game, and might cover. Playing the Fav is a must win and points.
I normally play the fav because they have better overall stats, but of course pick my spots as in TNF Colts -2.5, Ravens -3, and 49ers -3, they might not be winners, but I capped it and the plays feel good, then on game day I do some chanting for luck.
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Lot of advantages of playing the dog, they don't need to win the game, and might cover. Playing the Fav is a must win and points.
I normally play the fav because they have better overall stats, but of course pick my spots as in TNF Colts -2.5, Ravens -3, and 49ers -3, they might not be winners, but I capped it and the plays feel good, then on game day I do some chanting for luck.
Yep, its just that easy. Never bet against Marino or Manning and never bet on the underdog (cuase the favorite is the better team)....and never listen to anyone that might know more about a game than you....
Great advice.
You're either genuinely ignorant or just an a55hole.. It's like when a person is dead, they don't know it, it's every one else that suffers. It's the same way when you're stupid.
Either way I have no respect for your opinion or really care to dispute the nonsense in your hollow comments.. Obviously bad qbs will occasionally cover but it's situational. In the long run, you will not make money taking garbage qbs.
1) elite qb
2) very good qb
3) average qb
4) garbage qb
You don't put your money on # 4's when they face # 1's.. I'm telling you what time it is, I'm not gonna tell you how to build the clock also. You should know this. Gluck Hannibal.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Yep, its just that easy. Never bet against Marino or Manning and never bet on the underdog (cuase the favorite is the better team)....and never listen to anyone that might know more about a game than you....
Great advice.
You're either genuinely ignorant or just an a55hole.. It's like when a person is dead, they don't know it, it's every one else that suffers. It's the same way when you're stupid.
Either way I have no respect for your opinion or really care to dispute the nonsense in your hollow comments.. Obviously bad qbs will occasionally cover but it's situational. In the long run, you will not make money taking garbage qbs.
1) elite qb
2) very good qb
3) average qb
4) garbage qb
You don't put your money on # 4's when they face # 1's.. I'm telling you what time it is, I'm not gonna tell you how to build the clock also. You should know this. Gluck Hannibal.
to be honest, advice #1 and #2 are worthless. everybody and their uncle (and dad) likes the better team and better QB. oddsmakers know this, so they fudge the spread and you end up paying a premium taking the "better" team/QB.
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to be honest, advice #1 and #2 are worthless. everybody and their uncle (and dad) likes the better team and better QB. oddsmakers know this, so they fudge the spread and you end up paying a premium taking the "better" team/QB.
There are examples of great quarterbacks with good ats records, but in general all teams (qb's) will near 50% over time. Far more important are situations that effect the teams and public perception (which pushes the line in favor of the bad qb).
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ATS Records this year....
Manning 1-3
Rodgers 2-3
Brees 2-4
Fitzpatrick 4-2
There are examples of great quarterbacks with good ats records, but in general all teams (qb's) will near 50% over time. Far more important are situations that effect the teams and public perception (which pushes the line in favor of the bad qb).
There are examples of great quarterbacks with good ats records, but in general all teams (qb's) will near 50% over time. Far more important are situations that effect the teams and public perception (which pushes the line in favor of the bad qb).
This information is skewed. You have to factor in the opponent qb.
Fitzy covered ats vs Romo, Orton, RG3 and who ever is the QB of Oakland these days.. None of those QB's are elite.
Eli Manning and Andrew Luck beat Fitzy ats.. Eli is a 2 time champion and Luck is a superstar.
My point is that when the line is small you always take the better QB.. If the spread is 10+ than you further evaluate.
Manning is 1-3
Didn't cover as a 13.5 point favorite over Alex Smith. No play for me, spread too high.
Didn't cover vs Seattle for obvious reasons.
Didn't cover vs Colts (elite qb vs elite qb)
Covered vs Arizona and their garbage qb Stanton and who the other jobber that came in..
See where I'm going..?
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Quote Originally Posted by facehead:
ATS Records this year....
Manning 1-3
Rodgers 2-3
Brees 2-4
Fitzpatrick 4-2
There are examples of great quarterbacks with good ats records, but in general all teams (qb's) will near 50% over time. Far more important are situations that effect the teams and public perception (which pushes the line in favor of the bad qb).
This information is skewed. You have to factor in the opponent qb.
Fitzy covered ats vs Romo, Orton, RG3 and who ever is the QB of Oakland these days.. None of those QB's are elite.
Eli Manning and Andrew Luck beat Fitzy ats.. Eli is a 2 time champion and Luck is a superstar.
My point is that when the line is small you always take the better QB.. If the spread is 10+ than you further evaluate.
Manning is 1-3
Didn't cover as a 13.5 point favorite over Alex Smith. No play for me, spread too high.
Didn't cover vs Seattle for obvious reasons.
Didn't cover vs Colts (elite qb vs elite qb)
Covered vs Arizona and their garbage qb Stanton and who the other jobber that came in..
There are examples of great quarterbacks with good ats records, but in general all teams (qb's) will near 50% over time. Far more important are situations that effect the teams and public perception (which pushes the line in favor of the bad qb).
this guy gets it!
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Quote Originally Posted by facehead:
ATS Records this year....
Manning 1-3
Rodgers 2-3
Brees 2-4
Fitzpatrick 4-2
There are examples of great quarterbacks with good ats records, but in general all teams (qb's) will near 50% over time. Far more important are situations that effect the teams and public perception (which pushes the line in favor of the bad qb).
This information is skewed. You have to factor in the opponent qb.
Fitzy covered ats vs Romo, Orton, RG3 and who ever is the QB of Oakland these days.. None of those QB's are elite.
Eli Manning and Andrew Luck beat Fitzy ats.. Eli is a 2 time champion and Luck is a superstar.
My point is that when the line is small you always take the better QB.. If the spread is 10+ than you further evaluate.
Manning is 1-3
Didn't cover as a 13.5 point favorite over Alex Smith. No play for me, spread too high.
Didn't cover vs Seattle for obvious reasons.
Didn't cover vs Colts (elite qb vs elite qb)
Covered vs Arizona and their garbage qb Stanton and who the other jobber that came in..
See where I'm going..?
I know where you are going. Everyone that starts betting the NFL falls for the same trap. You're old man was no different and its not rocket science that the best qb on the better team wins a better % of the time.....but this aint just about winning, its about covering.
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Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:
This information is skewed. You have to factor in the opponent qb.
Fitzy covered ats vs Romo, Orton, RG3 and who ever is the QB of Oakland these days.. None of those QB's are elite.
Eli Manning and Andrew Luck beat Fitzy ats.. Eli is a 2 time champion and Luck is a superstar.
My point is that when the line is small you always take the better QB.. If the spread is 10+ than you further evaluate.
Manning is 1-3
Didn't cover as a 13.5 point favorite over Alex Smith. No play for me, spread too high.
Didn't cover vs Seattle for obvious reasons.
Didn't cover vs Colts (elite qb vs elite qb)
Covered vs Arizona and their garbage qb Stanton and who the other jobber that came in..
See where I'm going..?
I know where you are going. Everyone that starts betting the NFL falls for the same trap. You're old man was no different and its not rocket science that the best qb on the better team wins a better % of the time.....but this aint just about winning, its about covering.
Then there are the bad QBs like Cutler who is 40-64 ATS. I have plenty more, but this guy's old man laid down some simple logic of you rubes. Deal with it.
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Then there are the bad QBs like Cutler who is 40-64 ATS. I have plenty more, but this guy's old man laid down some simple logic of you rubes. Deal with it.
Great question and and not surprising since he sucks in the playoffs;
Peyton Manning is 5-12 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).
damn - that's horrible...would guess brady's isn't stellar by no means
NOW...I LOVE Jake Plummer .... biggest bet of my life... 2004/5 AFC Championship in Denv... Steelers +3 and ML - i will never forget that day...the nerves and butterflies before it...and the joy /apprehension during and sheer exuberance after... one of the most memorable in my life...and biggest bar tab in my life too
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Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:
Great question and and not surprising since he sucks in the playoffs;
Peyton Manning is 5-12 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).
damn - that's horrible...would guess brady's isn't stellar by no means
NOW...I LOVE Jake Plummer .... biggest bet of my life... 2004/5 AFC Championship in Denv... Steelers +3 and ML - i will never forget that day...the nerves and butterflies before it...and the joy /apprehension during and sheer exuberance after... one of the most memorable in my life...and biggest bar tab in my life too
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