My Old Man always told me 3 things about Betting NFL

1) Never bet on a bad quarterback

Rule #1  

On occasion ofcourse the bad QB will cover but more often than not they won't. Especially the starting Qbs who are really 3rd stringers like Fitzy

 

sorry bro..............teams with bad qb's cover all the time. They even win superbowls

I wish it was that simple to analyze.

I'm talking really bad QB's when facing the elite QBs of the NFL..

Im just curious how fitzpatrick keeps getting starting gigs. Must be a really smooth talker. He did go to harvard, i guess those connections are beneficial to nfl gm's, owners, and coaches. It sure as chit isn't because he can play football though. Guy is single handedly taking a very talented team to mediocrity. 

A lot goes into making a game time play in the NFL. QB def one but also look at what week were in and so forth this is the time of year the favorites will start to cover and real teams step out just take a look at the matchups this week.  WHAT A WEEK FOR FOOTBALL  WERE GONNA SEE IF CINCY IS WHO THEY CLAIM IF BUFF CAN STEP UP TO NE. Philly or gram and then Pitt clev so on it's week 6 time to seperate and the jitters are gone and injuries we'll.  what team don't have them.    Favorites most likely will cover the majority the next 2-4 weeks.  Then Vegas will start adjusting the lines padding the favorites to heavily as they do the second half of the season and BAM!!' Now the dogs start to cover because everyone remembering the 20 point whopping that NE BUT ON A FAST STARTING BUFF TEAM THREE WEEKS BACK    NFL plays out the same almost every year.  Tons upsets early then before half season the real teams step forward.  History will back my knowledge.    ALL I CAN SAY IS WOW WHAT A WEEK OF MATCHUPS.  LOVE THIS GAME 

Your old man was a square.

Nice thought Action. I will take it a little farther. I heard on here not to long ago to bet on the better QB first, the better Defense second and finally the better Head Coach.

 

Makes sense to me.

Amazingly enough, this should be written in stone and put it as an official Top Three Commandments.

(Personal opinion on n#2, People need to tattoo to their brains that books are not releasing a line to predict who is going to win, they are releasing a line to attract as much as possible evenly split money. When they understand that part, they will do much better in this business)

#2 - totally agree. This is what most gamblers don't understand. The spread comes into play less than 15% of all NFL games. What does that tell you? Don't worry about the spread, just play who you think will win SU and the spread is usually irrelevant.

 

Very sound advice.

1. Speaks for itself really, last night Luck or Fitzpatrick? last Thursday Ponder or Rodgers?

2. Coming to this conclusion, as has been noted round here yesterday it's over 90% now this year that when a favoured team wins, it also covers. Find the winning team. Here's another thing people always think taking the points is somehow smarter and more savvy. Is it?

3. Absolutely. You will never learn a thing relying on other people for picks, you can sound out others opinions who you respect as the clincher etc but always make your own bet.

This is why people who go on about this garbage about what the public are doing - don't know what they're doing, rather than making their own picks, they make them based on what Joe from Poughkeepsie and Bud from Little Rock is betting.

Never bet against a streak. 

Yep, its just that easy. Never bet against Marino or Manning and never bet on the underdog (cuase the favorite is the better team)....and never listen to anyone that might know more about a game than you....

ha ha ha great post!!! Maybe Pops hated his son?

I'm just curious if you watch the game or the quarterback? Last night did you take a peak at what was going on at the line of scrimmage by any chance? They got beat on both sides of the ball. Espn can suck JJ's cock all day because hes great, but if you look at the bigger picture as a unit they struggled all night to get any kind of pass rush against a make shift colts Oline. And i won't even get started on the Texans pass protection last night. They were abysmal.  This team has problems, but it aint just Fitzgerald my man