LOCK:
English Premier League
Manchester City TT OV 2 (-115)
Some points were discussed above, I'll try to hit them all again here. I think this is a worst case scenario push. But I don't see it losing, thus the wager and post here, obviously!
Let's start with a simple look at the two teams. City is currently in 2nd place, and have scored 45 goals in 23 league matches. That's just a hair under 2 per game. Sunderland have give up 46 in 23 matches, exactly 2 per game. So just looking at that, you'd think City was capable of netting two here. They are on the road here, and Sunderland has fared better at home in giving up goals, but they've only faced one of the top 5 teams in scoring at home (Spurs) who they did hold to 1 goal. That's really my only red flag here. All told vs. the top 5 in goals scored (City, Leicester, Spurs, Everton and Arsenal), they've conceded 22 goals in 6 matches, that's 3.67 goals per match. Conversely City vs. the bottom 5 in goals allowed (Sunderland, Norwich, Newcastle, Villa and AFCB), they have scored 17 in 5 matches. That's 3.4 per game, and includes a 0 vs. Villa and a 2 vs. Norwich, both of which were played without two of their key offensive components, Silva and Aguero. More on that in a sec.
With Silva and Aguero in the lineup, City has a record of 7W - 1L - 2D. (25/6 GF/GA in those 10 matches) Only two of those 10 matches saw them with less than 2 goals. This is why I wanted to confirm both were playing. Sterling is actually on the bench to start things off today, replaced by Iheanacho, who netted a hattrick on the road vs. Villa in their FA Cup match last weekend.
I am going with the TT over, as City is still without Kompany, their key defender. I do think there is value in the over 2.75 and still some value in City -1.5. I think 2-0 and 2-1 are possible outcomes, but my money says City nets 3 here at least. If it pushes, it pushes. Nothing is guaranteed, and much stranger things have happened then City only scoring 1 here, but I would be surprised if Sunderland could put up a clean sheet. City needs the points to get back to the top, and you can't leave 3 on the pitch vs. a cellar dweller like Sunderland, so I fully expect them to be attack minded and capitalize on their chances.
Hope they can avoid a road let down and that both these sides continue their form. Match kicks in about 40 minutes.
BOL..............
Hot Forum Topics
