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ClubDirtSports Week Four NFL Newsletter

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Getty3

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Posts: 25178

Posted: Sep. 28, 2014 - 9:34 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

two things i'll put here as reminders for next week's newsletter.

how in the f*ck did houston win when their running backs had 18 carries for 23 yards today? because manueal threw a TD pass to watt, i supposed and we thought manuel would struggle on the road against a good defense, but there is no way in hell houston plays with good teams or just about anyone on the road with that happening with their running game and fitzpatrick at QB.

same thing for SD. they have major injuries at RB and today their two RB's have 19 carries for 42 yards against a terrible defense. i'm not sure this gets much better for SD and they'll probably be given higher numbers each week now that people know they are good. but how good are they with no running game playing good teams? they don't exactly have fitzpatrick at QB but this team isn't good enough to cover big spreads or regularly win tough games with no running game.

Agree on both counts. We have a pair of 3-1 teams who are not very good. Houston is plain ugly except for the spectacular JJ Watt and San Diego runs a 1 man offense thanks to the incredibly underrated Phil Rivers. Great fades in the right spots with the right lines.

What got into the Minnesota offense today ? That's the best they've looked in years. Something to consider when betting in the near term. Atlanta's defense is blech, but that was still impressive.

Pittsburgh's lack of competent coaching cost them a win today. I generally like Tomlin, but that loss is on him.

Indy has some swagger back, but I guess that comes with back to back divisional games against the Jags and Titans. They win the AFC South by default.

The 49ers won, but it was sloppy. They're not a Super Bowl contender.

The Shrimps need to be taken seriously. They've earned it.

Chicago is better than they showed today, but they just can't play with the Packers. Detroit is making the best case for being the best team in that division, but truth is they're all pretty damn good.

Oakland is as disgraceful as Jacksonville. Even more so, because the Raiders once had pride where the Jags never did.

What got into the Minnesota offense today ? That's the best they've looked in years. Something to consider when betting in the near term. Atlanta's defense is blech, but that was still impressive.

Pittsburgh's lack of competent coaching cost them a win today. I generally like Tomlin, but that loss is on him.

Indy has some swagger back, but I guess that comes with back to back divisional games against the Jags and Titans. They win the AFC South by default.

The 49ers won, but it was sloppy. They're not a Super Bowl contender.

The Shrimps need to be taken seriously. They've earned it.

Oakland is as disgraceful as Jacksonville. Even more so, because the Raiders once had pride where the Jags never did.

ClubDirt

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Posts: 28196

Posted: Sep. 28, 2014 - 9:44 PM ET #52

i think GB, Chicago and Detroit can all do what GB did today to any of the others, and many other teams. they all have very good offenses that can run up the score and if they can get a couple of turnovers, it can get ugly. detroit does look the best because they might have a defense this season.

i'm not sure about minnesota, but i just don't see Atlanta as a road favorite against a decent team with that defense and ryan's mediocre road record.

in addition to Jax, someone clearly needs to remind me each week that the titans suck. i couldn't have been more wrong there.

i agree with the rest except didn't the jaguars have pride in the early boselli days?

speaking of being wrong, i knew one of these teams playing tonight had a horrible defense. unfortunately, i was wrong about which defense. how much do they pay rob ryan?

Getty3

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Posted: Sep. 28, 2014 - 9:56 PM ET #53

The Dallas offensive line has stole the show. All year they've made DeMarco Murray look like Emmitt Smith and tonite they're routinely blocking 6 and 7 man rushes as if they were toy soldiers.

Rob Ryan

https://thehayride.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/fat-ryan-large.jpg

Cyrax

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Posts: 26514

Posted: Sep. 28, 2014 - 10:02 PM ET #54

It's the Cowboy Show tonight....

ClubDirt

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Posted: Sep. 28, 2014 - 10:21 PM ET #55

cyrax, no doubt.

this ios approaching the kind of prime time beatdown that makes the loser almost an auto-play the next week. the problem is i don't think it works with NO. looking ahead, they are at home next week against Tampa and will probably be close to double digit favorites. they could easily win that by 20 as bad as the TB secondary and coaching is so we'll probably either go TB in that one or leave it alone despite out blowout on prime time tv angle we like so much.

t6rider

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Posts: 4483

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 1:50 AM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

just got finished with some early morning monopoly to clear my mind. i don't think it worked. having a hard time narrowing these down

anyway

Houston -2.5 -120
Minnesota +4
Tenn +7.5 -120
TB +7.5
NO -3
SF -4

may add Green Bay, crossing out Jax since it's 12.5 or so. that means they'll definitely cover.

Bravo my friend!! Much respect.

t6rider

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Posts: 4483

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 1:51 AM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

The week got off to a bad start with my Wash play on Thursday night.

Unfortunately, I REALLY liked Wash in that game

Onto todays, most of which were bet early in the week ...

Miami - 3.5

NO -3

SF -5

Hou -3

Car +3.5

GB - 1.5

GL today, fella's

t6rider

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Posts: 4483

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 1:52 AM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

SF -4 (CD Sports special NFC GOY of the week in games in which the point spread is between 3 and 6 prior to week 5. There's more where that came from.)

HOU -3 Fitzy gets to do some work against the team which didn't want to extend his contract. He's a weird dude and will probably shine today before laying another egg in his next start.

NO -3 See above post #28'

CD ? Hugh ? Shrimpmeister ? T6 ? Bisquick ? Anybody ?

t6rider

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Posts: 4483

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 1:55 AM ET #59

Got dragged into a small stake in the Hilton Supercontest. Own 6.6% of it. I'm sitting at an amazing 15-15. Never thought I would be this bad. My 0-5 last week fading the 0-2 teams was a killer. I'll get back into it.

ClubDirt

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Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 9:55 AM ET #60

plenty of time to make that up, T6. good luck.

t6rider

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Posts: 4483

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 1:21 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:

Got dragged into a small stake in the Hilton Supercontest. Own 6.6% of it. I'm sitting at an amazing 15-15. Never thought I would be this bad. My 0-5 last week fading the 0-2 teams was a killer. I'll get back into it.

10-10. Jesus.

Biscuiteater1

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Posts: 32984

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 5:01 PM ET #62

Bortles (sp)

ClubDirt

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Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 5:14 PM ET #63

bortles should be ok if Jax decides to put any sort of talent around him.

bad news. no more betting against ej manuel on the road against decent or better defenses.

https://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11613360/kyle-orton-takes-ej-manuel-buffalo-bills-qb

Getty3

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Posts: 25178

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 5:53 PM ET #64

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

bortles should be ok if Jax decides to put any sort of talent around him.

bad news. no more betting against ej manuel on the road against decent or better defenses.

https://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11613360/kyle-orton-takes-ej-manuel-buffalo-bills-qb

The better of 2 bads ? But seriously, EJ wasn't very good in college. He struggles with accuracy (a basic necessity of throwing the ball) and he can't read coverage. Bad combination. What the hell were the Bills thinking drafting this guy 12th overall a few years ago ? You reap what you sow.

Getty3

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Posts: 25178

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 5:59 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

Bortles (sp)

Bortles looks good (professionally of course, not physically

)

The Jags have an incredible stable of young play making receivers and an offensive line which is coming together. This will be a high powered offense sooner rather than later.

But the defense...

ClubDirt

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Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 6:03 PM ET #66

orton is probably one of the better backups around. should be an improvement. they have some good talent on offense, orton should be alright.

the bills should be in a position to make up for this by getting Jameis in the draft.

Getty3

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Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 6:25 PM ET #67

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

orton is probably one of the better backups around. should be an improvement. they have some good talent on offense, orton should be alright.

the bills should be in a position to make up for this by getting Jameis in the draft.

Yeah, Orton was suitable as a starter in both Chicago and Denver(until Tebow butted in). In Buffalo they still need to get CJ Spiller more touches than Fred Jackson. I'm sure Fred is a helluva guy, but he can't change the outcome of a game like CJ can. Meanwhile Orton can pick his spots to get the ball downfield to Watkins. He won't miss the open targets that EJ did.

Pittsburgh opens only 6.5 at Jax... aw nevermind, I've already got the over circled as the Jag play of the 2nd half of the 1st half of the season in non divisional games which fall in the month of October.

Getty3

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Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 6:33 PM ET #68

Played the MNF game Under 46.5 for a few dollars. The total seems unusually high but I'll stick with my conviction that the Patriots are now a defensive team and neither team poses a legitimate passing threat.

ClubDirt

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Posts: 28196

Posted: Sep. 29, 2014 - 8:28 PM ET #69

getty, under seems like the way to go tonight. no play for me, but the total seems high to me.

i'm not sure why teams start many of these young QB's. seems to make more sense to let them watch and learn for a while. i guess buffalo will do that with manuel. orton has been around forever, he's probably a good guy to learn from.