Arena Football Playoffs 2016................................

1. Soul 13.96

2. Zona 13.27

3. Sharks 8.2

4. Predators 4.41

5. Kiss (-1.17)

6. Gladiators (-2.82)

7. Storm (-12.83)

8. Steel (-16.26)

The top 2 teams are easily Soul and Zona.

Will lean Soul to win the Arena Bowl.

The Soul are better in the passing skill areas like QBPR diff and ave per pass diff.

Zona is much better in TO's , +17 to +5

Soul have had alot of very bad fumble luck. They have fumbled 14 times and lost 13 of those. They have forced 14 fumbles and recovered just 6 ,  they are -7 in fumbles recovered but even in fumbling and forced fumbles, a 7 fumble diff, the most in the league.

Zona is +9  in fumbling /forced fumbles and +9 in recovered fumbles, which is reasonable.

Zona is better in the skill part of fumbling which is the ability to not fumble and the ability to force fumbles at +9 to Soul 0, but recoveries seem to be more random luck then anything else, and the Soul have received loads of very bad fumble recovery luck and these type things have shown tendencies to regress as games go on.

Yet Soul still rank no. 1 because of being better in the passing skill areas which are more repeatable and predictable.

Zona is no-where near as good as their point margin of 18.88 pts per game, where-as the Soul are a bit better then their pt margin of 12.94.

MY LINES.............................................

we give 3 pts to home field advantage

Soul -29.79 over Storm

Zona - 32.53 over Steel

Kiss -4.65 over Gladiators

Sharks -.79 over Predators

The obvious play here is Sharks over Predators with a 7.79 diff to the actual line.

The down-side is Sharks are coming off 2 big wins by 19 and by 14 where-as Predators are coming off 2 losses at the hands of the 2 best teams, Soul and Zona so there could be some regression coming for both teams.

Predators are also in a revenge spot from losing to Sharks in last years playoffs in the first round.

I think the book factored this into the line setting it to high thinking players would back Predators off these things.

I would expect Predators to win SU and lean Sharks to cover at this time.

At only +4 with Sharks would pass on the game, still like Predators to win SU.

I stumbled upon this accidentally, but am very impressed with your knowledge and information.

I've done extremely well in the AFL the last 3 years. Your power ratings are very close to mine, although I haven't delved into the fumbling stats like you have--interesting stuff.

I would slightly disagree with the top two however. I had Philly ranked on top most of season, but at this point, with the AZ defense bringing back players and getting healthy, I have them about 2 points better. McDaniel out, and giving edge to Laser over Radabaugh in a big game, also entered into my rankings.

The line drops were because of wagers I made earlier today:

No Greg Carr and B-Mo at QB has seriously downgraded Orlando's power rating. Right now I have them and JAX rated virtually even. I make the line at Orlando-2.5.

LA is also dealing with a QB injury, and problems on O-Line. Cleveland actually closed as a slight favorite in LA 3 weeks ago. Unless Stanley is cleared, and some other players heal, I don't see LA being any higher than -3.

Good to read some intelligent analysis of the AFL.

Good stuff.......................................

But will lean Orlando ML -125

and lean Zona -28 if the line closes at 28 or less. At 26.5 or under we have a play on Zona for 2 units

Be checking back for next games!  Soul is my home team! 

Don't have trouble on other sites, just this one.

Son of a gun, did Orlando miss that last extra point ?  They could of won in regulation, geez louise. 

The game was not online so I check with game tracker every now and again but missed that last score.

Also missed the overtime score which appears Jax went for 2 and got it.

The game went about what the info thought it would with a close game and Jax covering the +7 opening line.

Zona winning big sets us up for possible down the road fades on them, we should get some great line value since they are now off 2 big wins and 3 wins by 17 pts or more.

Kiss are back up to -6, but both games are pretty much in line with the lines here so will have to pass at this time.

Next week we'd have Soul -8.76 over Sharks. Assuming of coarse Sharks win 

JAX ended up closing at -2 yesterday. I can envision a similar move towards Cleveland today. They are coming off a bye, and playing a banged up LA team who had to play at Portland Monday Night. This game is also being played at San Diego, which is not normal home venue for LA. Haven't been able to get any info on whether starting QB Stanley will be playing, but if he doesn't this should close around pick'em.

I'd look to Cleveland at anything more than +3. Will probably be able to come back and take LA below that number, possibly even a Dog, if that's how you want to play it.

Zona -19.09 over Gladiators

My lines with at least a 6.5 favorite are 7-1 SU in conference finals and Arenabowl.

Seems to indicate we should be looking at Soul at Zona in the Arenabowl.

My Lines..............Zona -2.31

My Lines with a 2.5 favorite or smaller is 0-2 SU in those same years in conference finals and Arenabowl.

This is a small sample size but would be very close to what my lines using almost the same formula for the NFL would find since 1978 over a much larger sample size.

Zona was 17.5 last night, now up to 19.5.

Unless we have some big line movements I don't see any plays here . 

One thing we could do is fade Zona coming off 2 very big wins and 3 wins of 17 points or more. Teams in this spot will generally win by less than my lines. I'll wait-out the line and see if we can get to 20 or 21 before game time and may take some small action.

I will take a 2 unit play on Soul to beat Zona in the Arenabowl +227.

Soul to beat Zona +227 --- 2 units to win 4.54 units

Lines ....Zona -19....Soul -9.5

Zona did drop half a point.

I would not back Zona coming off those big wins, if the do happen to cover today I would look to play the Soul big next week, assuming of course the Soul win which they should.

The Soul are also in a revenge position losing to the Sharks in last seasons championship game a game we did call for possible upset by Sharks.

This season the Soul are much better then the Sharks and the Soul should be in great shape to win today. 

Soul are weakened however, if wr McDaniel and their best O-Lineman Tizvis miss game. They are also playing the game in Allentown. JAX has major defensive loss too, as they will be without best DB Reid.

Assuming the 2 Soul players are out, I make the SOUL-8.5, so at current number, no play for me. I took JAX+11.5 early in the week.

Arizona up to -21.5 at 5Dimes. At that number, Cleveland is worth a small play for me. Also like Under 120.5.

Good Luck.

That is 3 straight 40 point beat-downs by Zona.

That sets up the Arenabowl very, very well for us to grab the Soul.

We up our play on the Soul  but first we wait-out the line and hopefully we get a great line after all these big wins by Zona.

The Soul need to win today but they should be able to get that done. Hopefully it will not be to much of a big blow-out so we get the perception that Zona is a monster  and the entire world wants to ride them. 

MY LINES ............ Zona -2.31 over Soul

We stay the course with the info........... Teams off big wins will more then not win by less then my lines as they are due for regression .

My lines with a 6.5 fav goes 2-0 SU and is now.......9-1 SU  in conference finals and finals.

With a 2.5 fav ... 0-2 SU.... a small sample size but comparing this to Super Bowls since 1978 using the almost same formula my lines has a small losing record SU.

Would like the Soul ATS, but first we wait-out the line and see what the book decides .

+8.5 would be a best bet play

+6.5 a medium  play 

+6 or less a small play 

We'll add more if the line goes up.

The book finally made a huge adjustment to Zona's lines because of all those big wins.

Before the conference finals the ML was Soul +125 VS Zona but now it's +175.

If line goes up we add to the play.

Zona-8.5 $25 

Leave the big betting up to the big dogs BOL to all