Posted:
#1
Who here wants to play some ball? 
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Rod's NBL Round 1
Posted:
#2
I'll try and put together a preview of the upcoming season - there has been a lot of off season changes in both the coaching staffs and player movements along with a new team into the league.
The approach I have taken with respect to NBL in the past few years is "keep it simple stupid" - when a line or total looks too good to be true don't start thinking 'traps' or 'sucker bets' Because there is actually only a small % of the betting public in Australia and the world that actually bets on the sport unlike any of the major American sports, the market forces are not as strong to make the relevant corrections to the lines in the NBL.
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Posted:
#4
Quote Originally Posted by bookburner:
Hey Rod
Hope are we going to cap the celtics do you expect there lines to be inflated for the beginning of the season?
I believe so - I liken this situation to the Lakers of '04 when they made the two high profile signings of Payton and Mailman and the public simply expected them to blow out oppositions night in night out.
However hard to make any definite calls until I see how the chemistry of the players myself, as you know the whole sum of the parts theory.
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Posted:
#20
Gold Coast look like they have put together a team of has been geriatrics similar to the North Melbourne Giants that won the title.
8.5 points seems alot given their preseason form and that it will be a sellout home opener.
Gold Coast +8.5 1 unit
Gold Coast v Brisbane under 208.5 1 unit
Why do you guys like the over? My initial thought was this felt like a solid bet, but looking at the preseason scores for the Blaze I am thinking under:
GC 85 b NZ 84 NZ was a high scoring team last year
GC 111 b TV 98
GC 89 b TV 74
(disclaimer: no idea which players played or even if games were 48 minutes)
Townsville were the high scoring team and played 120 - 106 against Brisbane suggesting nothing has changed. (re side Townsville beat Brisbane by 14 GC beat Townsville by 13 and 15, naive triangle suggests GC 30 points better than Brisbane).
Brendan Joyce said the following after the second Townsville game:
Blaze coach Brendan Joyce, who rated his side's defence 40 per cent one week ago, said the third quarter was becoming a Gold Coast specialty.
"I love those scorelines," he said. "To keep them to 74 is a great effort.
"But we know Townsville are still finding their feet and there's room for improvement there.
"I still reckon we're about 10 to 20 per cent off (defensively)."
Joyce also pinpointed rebounding, particularly at the offensive end, as an area which needed work.
Pretty rash call without having seen them play, but I don't see an old team with Cameron, Melmuth and McGrgor looking to play uptempo against Bruton, Mckinnon and Ere et al. I think they would get run off their feet.
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Posted:
#24
Just playing the total for the game in NZ, at least 5-8 points too high IMO.
In terms of side can't get a read of this Breakers team especially their imports as I have never heard or seen them play. No Mee for the Snakes is enough to lay off coupled with the team's historic problems in playing on the road.
u203.5 Breakers v Taipans
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