I really do not look at a ton of #'s. I use NHL network and of course buy NHL gamecenter every year and that makes most of my decisions for me.I've been very successful in nhl for the past 4-5 years. I do look at a few numbers, not a ton though, Am I the only one who feels like this is an almost complete feel sport?
I really do not look at a ton of #'s. I use NHL network and of course buy NHL gamecenter every year and that makes most of my decisions for me.I've been very successful in nhl for the past 4-5 years. I do look at a few numbers, not a ton though, Am I the only one who feels like this is an almost complete feel sport?
starting goalie at LEAST 50%. weeble's daily STARTING GOALIES thread gives those every day. also on GoaliePost.com and DailyFaceoff.com.
Covers NHL "matchups" page is good for stats although NOT as good as their "old" format because you have to do a bunch of "digging" to get goalie and special teams stats
other than that it's an "educated guess" just like any other betting sport. one thing for sure. do NOT lay huge -$$$ on perceived "locks" that "can't lose" esp regular season. you will get "bit" enough to LOSE
starting goalie at LEAST 50%. weeble's daily STARTING GOALIES thread gives those every day. also on GoaliePost.com and DailyFaceoff.com.
Covers NHL "matchups" page is good for stats although NOT as good as their "old" format because you have to do a bunch of "digging" to get goalie and special teams stats
other than that it's an "educated guess" just like any other betting sport. one thing for sure. do NOT lay huge -$$$ on perceived "locks" that "can't lose" esp regular season. you will get "bit" enough to LOSE
Home vs away record. L10 wins & loss,back to back or 3 games in 4 nights,PP % vs PK %,Overall OVER vs UNDER and a lil more value on home and away over under. Goals for and against L5. Injuries
And some don't are....Laying more than -150 S.U on the ML. It doesn't sound to high but you need to hit 60% just to break even at that price.
Also look to play "draw no bet" if you're playing a larger fave and include o.t/s.o when playing a heavy dog. The capping of the game gos out the window during the s.o. And levels the playing field somewhat so it's good to have nice +$ on a borderline 50/50 gimmick skills competition and to not be laying heavy chalk on a coin flip. See TB at CHI last weekend
Don't put much stock in trends that go back more than a year or two,especially if there has been a high turnover rate,or a few key players or a coach.
Home vs away record. L10 wins & loss,back to back or 3 games in 4 nights,PP % vs PK %,Overall OVER vs UNDER and a lil more value on home and away over under. Goals for and against L5. Injuries
And some don't are....Laying more than -150 S.U on the ML. It doesn't sound to high but you need to hit 60% just to break even at that price.
Also look to play "draw no bet" if you're playing a larger fave and include o.t/s.o when playing a heavy dog. The capping of the game gos out the window during the s.o. And levels the playing field somewhat so it's good to have nice +$ on a borderline 50/50 gimmick skills competition and to not be laying heavy chalk on a coin flip. See TB at CHI last weekend
Don't put much stock in trends that go back more than a year or two,especially if there has been a high turnover rate,or a few key players or a coach.
And yes for sure you need to have a good feel so watching helps. But going by feel is tough as you can't watch every minute of every game and relying on highlights means you're just getting someone else' interpretation of the game. Mostly centered on exciting plays and not the boring hard work parts of the game where the games are usually won and lost.
I try to read the preview here,espn and at nhl.com
And hey if you're winning every year for the last 5 keep doing what your doing
And yes for sure you need to have a good feel so watching helps. But going by feel is tough as you can't watch every minute of every game and relying on highlights means you're just getting someone else' interpretation of the game. Mostly centered on exciting plays and not the boring hard work parts of the game where the games are usually won and lost.
I try to read the preview here,espn and at nhl.com
And hey if you're winning every year for the last 5 keep doing what your doing
I'm sure there's tons of guys on here that have been doing this way longer than I have, but I've had some success in the time that I have bet hockey.
Here's some things I like to look at:
Recent Form - How have the teams played lately? Of course, I'm more inclined to take a team who's won 7 or 8 of their last 10
Save Percentage: I like to look how efficient a goaltender has been stopping the puck and I'll also take account of the strength of opponents. A guy could be giving up 2.5 goals per game in his last 5 but if his SV% is up around .920 then he's been pretty efficient. Don't base everything on GAA (but do take it into account, if you get what I mean here)
Plus/Minus of the Top 2 Lines(O/D)- How are the top scorers of the team performing? Also this is pretty important for D men. If the D mean have a low +/-, then it's a sign that they may not be too efficient vs top lines of other teams.
Special Teams: Look at PP and PK in last 10 games. A team may have 17% PP on the season but be 33% PP in the last 10. Do your homework. Also look if a team is committing/drawing a lot of penalties. More penalties = More scoring chances.
But at the end of the day, it's like LeRinkRat said. Hockey is just like any other sport in that it's a long season and you don't necessarily know what you will get from each team on any night. Stay with your gut and never start chasing. Also stay away from those big ML's. They'll come to bite you in a hurry. Look to play the RL or the PL if you like a team enough as an alternative.
I'm sure there's tons of guys on here that have been doing this way longer than I have, but I've had some success in the time that I have bet hockey.
Here's some things I like to look at:
Recent Form - How have the teams played lately? Of course, I'm more inclined to take a team who's won 7 or 8 of their last 10
Save Percentage: I like to look how efficient a goaltender has been stopping the puck and I'll also take account of the strength of opponents. A guy could be giving up 2.5 goals per game in his last 5 but if his SV% is up around .920 then he's been pretty efficient. Don't base everything on GAA (but do take it into account, if you get what I mean here)
Plus/Minus of the Top 2 Lines(O/D)- How are the top scorers of the team performing? Also this is pretty important for D men. If the D mean have a low +/-, then it's a sign that they may not be too efficient vs top lines of other teams.
Special Teams: Look at PP and PK in last 10 games. A team may have 17% PP on the season but be 33% PP in the last 10. Do your homework. Also look if a team is committing/drawing a lot of penalties. More penalties = More scoring chances.
But at the end of the day, it's like LeRinkRat said. Hockey is just like any other sport in that it's a long season and you don't necessarily know what you will get from each team on any night. Stay with your gut and never start chasing. Also stay away from those big ML's. They'll come to bite you in a hurry. Look to play the RL or the PL if you like a team enough as an alternative.
Nice homey I just raked in about +4.5 units on the night. Which is sweet timing. I was up all year and then lost -3 units last night to drop me to -0.3 for the year. Bases are good though up a nick in the playoffs (oplaying STL ML & -1.5 tomorrow) an after pounding the JETS 1st.FH,FH ML to game ML I won +3.5 units n MNF and now sit a lil over +12 units for the year in NFL which is my best ever this lat in the season
Nice homey I just raked in about +4.5 units on the night. Which is sweet timing. I was up all year and then lost -3 units last night to drop me to -0.3 for the year. Bases are good though up a nick in the playoffs (oplaying STL ML & -1.5 tomorrow) an after pounding the JETS 1st.FH,FH ML to game ML I won +3.5 units n MNF and now sit a lil over +12 units for the year in NFL which is my best ever this lat in the season
also the first home game off long roadies are a good one. home teams tend to not show up for those.
Couldn't agree more. Thats what I call the Jello Leg Syndrome. The guys get home and spend the next 24 hours showing their wives the new refinements and adjustments they've made to their reverse cow-girls. That they learned with their puck bunny girlfriends on the road trip. Leading to severe Jello Legs and a sub par performance in their first game back home,especially in the first period.
also the first home game off long roadies are a good one. home teams tend to not show up for those.
Couldn't agree more. Thats what I call the Jello Leg Syndrome. The guys get home and spend the next 24 hours showing their wives the new refinements and adjustments they've made to their reverse cow-girls. That they learned with their puck bunny girlfriends on the road trip. Leading to severe Jello Legs and a sub par performance in their first game back home,especially in the first period.
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