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    All Forums | NHL Betting Forum

    Testing an NHL model with 69.41%

    TheProphet88
    tvigilante2020
    buceye9
    bettowin518
    dyamarik
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 628
    Posts: 16
     
    TheProphet88
    TheProphet88
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2025
    Posts: 36
    Posted: Mar. 31, 2026 - 3:01 PM ET #1

    Hello everyone, after relentlessly working for many hours, I finally created an NHL model with 69.41% accuracy. Unfortonely the season is almost over but the same way I want to test it.
    So I will be posting the predictions every day.
    This is the ranking for every pick
     

    1-Elite

    2-Strong

    3-Lean 

    4-Pass

     

    Lets have faith that this will work so everyone can make some money in the rest of the season.


    CAR @ CBJ CAR Elite
    DAL @ BOS BOS Elite
    DET @ PIT DET Pass
    MTL @ TBL TBL Strong
    NJD @ NYR NJD Elite
    NYI @ BUF BUF Elite
    OTT @ FLA OTT Pass
    PHI @ WSH WSH Strong
    SEA @ EDM EDM Elite
    WPG @ CHI WPG Elite

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Hello everyone, after relentlessly working for many hours, I finally created an NHL model with 69.41% accuracy. Unfortonely the season is almost over but the same way I want to test it.
    So I will be posting the predictions every day.
    This is the ranking for every pick
     

    1-Elite

    2-Strong

    3-Lean 

    4-Pass

     

    Lets have faith that this will work so everyone can make some money in the rest of the season.


    CAR @ CBJ CAR Elite
    DAL @ BOS BOS Elite
    DET @ PIT DET Pass
    MTL @ TBL TBL Strong
    NJD @ NYR NJD Elite
    NYI @ BUF BUF Elite
    OTT @ FLA OTT Pass
    PHI @ WSH WSH Strong
    SEA @ EDM EDM Elite
    WPG @ CHI WPG Elite

     
    tvigilante2020
    tvigilante2020
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    Posts: 1295
    Posted: Mar. 31, 2026 - 5:12 PM ET #2

    Soooooooooooooooooo...any info about this system?

    Reply

    Soooooooooooooooooo...any info about this system?

     
    buceye9
    buceye9
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    Joined: Sep, 2006
    Posts: 395
    Posted: Mar. 31, 2026 - 6:27 PM ET #3

    Does this system understand the last couple of weeks in an extremely tight playoff race???? A I can’t pick these games with all the emotions. I bet ur model works better in middle of the year, but I hope u win every game an_cheers

    Reply

    Does this system understand the last couple of weeks in an extremely tight playoff race???? A I can’t pick these games with all the emotions. I bet ur model works better in middle of the year, but I hope u win every game an_cheers

     
    TheProphet88
    TheProphet88
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    Posts: 36
    Posted: Apr. 1, 2026 - 8:21 AM ET #4

    @buceye9

    No, unfortunately, it doesn’t understand that. I still need to figure it out so it works during the playoffs.

    Reply

    @buceye9

    No, unfortunately, it doesn’t understand that. I still need to figure it out so it works during the playoffs.

     
    TheProphet88
    TheProphet88
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    Posts: 36
    Posted: Apr. 1, 2026 - 8:51 AM ET #5

    @tvigilante2020

     Yes! of course.

    It is focused on selecting the winning side, with confidence and tiering used to separate stronger picks from weaker ones.

    Current audit winner accuracy: 70.88% from 1177 picks
    •
    Elite: 97.06% with 198 correct out of 204 picks
    •
    Strong: 79.27% with 130 correct out of 164 picks
    •
    Lean: 75.10% with 190 correct out of 253 picks
    •
    Pass: 53.06% with 295 correct out of 556 picks


    These audit results are from the 2025-26 season
    Games included: completed games through March 30, 2026

    Reply

    @tvigilante2020

     Yes! of course.

    It is focused on selecting the winning side, with confidence and tiering used to separate stronger picks from weaker ones.

    Current audit winner accuracy: 70.88% from 1177 picks
    •
    Elite: 97.06% with 198 correct out of 204 picks
    •
    Strong: 79.27% with 130 correct out of 164 picks
    •
    Lean: 75.10% with 190 correct out of 253 picks
    •
    Pass: 53.06% with 295 correct out of 556 picks


    These audit results are from the 2025-26 season
    Games included: completed games through March 30, 2026

     
    bettowin518
    bettowin518
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    Posts: 46
    Posted: Apr. 1, 2026 - 6:22 PM ET #6

    So what’s your record from your first day of predictions publicly?

    Reply

    So what’s your record from your first day of predictions publicly?

     
    tvigilante2020
    tvigilante2020
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    Posts: 1295
    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 8:21 AM ET #7

    @bettowin518

     Dude went 6-2.

    Reply

    @bettowin518

     Dude went 6-2.

     
    tvigilante2020
    tvigilante2020
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    Posts: 1295
    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 8:21 AM ET #8

    @TheProphet88

     So what data does it use?

    Reply

    @TheProphet88

     So what data does it use?

     
    tvigilante2020
    tvigilante2020
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    Posts: 1295
    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 8:23 AM ET #9

    @tvigilante2020

     Elite picks went 5-1

    Reply

    @tvigilante2020

     Elite picks went 5-1

     
    dyamarik
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 9:38 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

    @tvigilante2020  Elite picks went 5-1
     confused  Huh???  Here's the system summary so far...

    03/31

    https://www.covers.com/forum/nhl-betting-23/nhl-picks-for-today-3302026-104023599

    CGY @ COL CGY Lean L -100 
    PIT @ NYI NYI Elite L -130
    STL @ SJS SJS Strong W +100
    TOR @ ANA ANA Lean L -188
    VAN @ VGK VGK Pass W +100

    04/01

    https://www.covers.com/forum/nhl-betting-23/testing-an-nhl-model-with-69-accuracy---day-2-104023912

    ANA @ SJS SJS Lean W +100
    STL @ LAK LAK Strong W +100
    VAN @ COL COL Elite L -450

    Elite:  0-2  -580

    Strong:  2-0  +200

    Lean:  1-2  -188

    Pass:  1-0  +100

    @TheProphet88  strongly encourage you to wait for playoffs and try the system then.  I bet Isles and Avs as well the past two nights, as they both seemed like solid bets, and they both got humiliated by an inferior opponent. 

    Do you only bet Moneylines?  If yes, then 68% is not that great when you account for the large Vig you lose on occasional upsets.  Your record so far is 50% but you're down -468 assuming $100 bet to win per game.

    The amount of random volatility in month of April almost impossible to predict (e.g. teams take the night off, team is out of playoffs, team in a "Must Win" which loses more than it wins, etc.) with mathematical/statistical model.  Wrong time of season to try and test drive a new system IMHO - I wish you the best of luck.peace_5

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

    @tvigilante2020  Elite picks went 5-1
     confused  Huh???  Here's the system summary so far...

    03/31

    https://www.covers.com/forum/nhl-betting-23/nhl-picks-for-today-3302026-104023599

    CGY @ COL CGY Lean L -100 
    PIT @ NYI NYI Elite L -130
    STL @ SJS SJS Strong W +100
    TOR @ ANA ANA Lean L -188
    VAN @ VGK VGK Pass W +100

    04/01

    https://www.covers.com/forum/nhl-betting-23/testing-an-nhl-model-with-69-accuracy---day-2-104023912

    ANA @ SJS SJS Lean W +100
    STL @ LAK LAK Strong W +100
    VAN @ COL COL Elite L -450

    Elite:  0-2  -580

    Strong:  2-0  +200

    Lean:  1-2  -188

    Pass:  1-0  +100

    @TheProphet88  strongly encourage you to wait for playoffs and try the system then.  I bet Isles and Avs as well the past two nights, as they both seemed like solid bets, and they both got humiliated by an inferior opponent. 

    Do you only bet Moneylines?  If yes, then 68% is not that great when you account for the large Vig you lose on occasional upsets.  Your record so far is 50% but you're down -468 assuming $100 bet to win per game.

    The amount of random volatility in month of April almost impossible to predict (e.g. teams take the night off, team is out of playoffs, team in a "Must Win" which loses more than it wins, etc.) with mathematical/statistical model.  Wrong time of season to try and test drive a new system IMHO - I wish you the best of luck.peace_5

     
    tvigilante2020
    tvigilante2020
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 9:42 AM ET #11

    @dyamarik

    The other user asked me about the March 31st picks. That was the record for that day.

    Reply

    @dyamarik

    The other user asked me about the March 31st picks. That was the record for that day.

     
    dyamarik
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 10:04 AM ET #12

    @tvigilante2020  peace_5

     

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
    Reply

    @tvigilante2020  peace_5

     

     
    TheProphet88
    TheProphet88
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    Posts: 36
    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 11:34 AM ET #13

    @tvigilante2020

     

    @tvigilante2020
     So what data does it use?

     Oh man, It use a lot of data, but I can't talk about that. Right now I am just testing it and making some more improvement for the next season.

    Reply

    @tvigilante2020

     

    @tvigilante2020
     So what data does it use?

     Oh man, It use a lot of data, but I can't talk about that. Right now I am just testing it and making some more improvement for the next season.

     
    TheProphet88
    TheProphet88
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    Posts: 36
    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 11:47 AM ET #14

    @dyamarik

    The system is designed for the regular season only. The playoffs are a different type of game and strategy. I could try to adapt it and see if the results are positive.

    Do you only bet Moneylines? Yes.

    Hey BTW: Don't count the "Pass" picks; you aren't supposed to use those. And yes, you are right—it is the wrong time of the season to test this. But I finished the model a few days ago and I can’t wait until October to start testing it.

    Also, here are the picks from the 31st:

    BOS @ FLA BOS Elite
    BUF @ OTT BUF Strong
    CBJ @ CAR CAR Elite
    CGY @ VGK VGK Elite
    CHI @ EDM EDM Elite
    DET @ PHI DET Pass
    MTL @ NYR NYR Pass
    NSH @ LAK LAK Strong
    PIT @ TBL PIT Pass
    TOR @ SJS TOR Strong
    UTA @ SEA UTA Strong
    VAN @ MIN MIN Elite
    WPG @ DAL WPG Pass
    WSH @ NJD NJD Lean

     

    Reply

    @dyamarik

    The system is designed for the regular season only. The playoffs are a different type of game and strategy. I could try to adapt it and see if the results are positive.

    Do you only bet Moneylines? Yes.

    Hey BTW: Don't count the "Pass" picks; you aren't supposed to use those. And yes, you are right—it is the wrong time of the season to test this. But I finished the model a few days ago and I can’t wait until October to start testing it.

    Also, here are the picks from the 31st:

    BOS @ FLA BOS Elite
    BUF @ OTT BUF Strong
    CBJ @ CAR CAR Elite
    CGY @ VGK VGK Elite
    CHI @ EDM EDM Elite
    DET @ PHI DET Pass
    MTL @ NYR NYR Pass
    NSH @ LAK LAK Strong
    PIT @ TBL PIT Pass
    TOR @ SJS TOR Strong
    UTA @ SEA UTA Strong
    VAN @ MIN MIN Elite
    WPG @ DAL WPG Pass
    WSH @ NJD NJD Lean

     

     
    TheProphet88
    TheProphet88
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 11:48 AM ET #15

    @bettowin518

     I will post the record of each day on Monday

    Reply

    @bettowin518

     I will post the record of each day on Monday

     
     
    TheProphet88
    TheProphet88
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2026 - 12:21 PM ET #16

    BTW! I am also working on an MLB model, but it is not done yet. I’m super excited about this one because the season is fresh, and I will be able to test it properly.

    Reply

    BTW! I am also working on an MLB model, but it is not done yet. I’m super excited about this one because the season is fresh, and I will be able to test it properly.

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