Posted:
#26
@Redlad
OK == my mistake
1
tech angles NHL
Posted:
#28
Well, if you are gonna lose more bets than you win, best to win the bigger ones.
1) Parlay Bruins and Bruins OVER 6......+163, for one unit.......lose 1 unit
2) Parlay Oilers and Stars..........+146, for two units...............win 2.92 units
3) Islanders UNDER 5.5, -150, one unit.................................lose one unit
4) Islanders +155, one unit.................................................lose one unit
1-3 for the day, -0.08 units
4-4 for the playoffs, +5.36 units.
All units are units risked, so if I have a favorite of say, -150 for one unit I would win .67 of a unit if they come a winner, and lose one unit if it loses.
Tomorrow.....
5) NHL Devils -1
6) NHL Avalanche -1.....if either the Avalanche or Devils win by one goal exactly I come out even on that particular wager.
7) NBA NYK -1.5
8) NBA Warriors moneyline as part of a three team moneyline parlay, the first of which was the Bucks tonight, details are in the earlier part of the thread.
1
Posted:
#29
a) Alright, let's delve into game 3s in the NHL playoffs....we have some games where the sequence is similar.....with a game one away winner, game two away loser....if these teams come as home dogs game 3 in the first two rounds of the playoffs, they have been 15-10 straight up with an ROI of 29.75%..........Wild, Kings
This moves to 10-5 straight up with an ROI of 48.89% if those above mentioned teams in that situation have been outscored in the two previous games.....Wild, Kings
b) In the opposite situation, we have a game one away loser, game two away winner and now a home dog in game 3....those teams have gone 8-18 straight up in the first two rounds......+21.48% ROI going AGAINST....VERSUS Panthers
Game 3 NHL Plays:
9) Wild -101, 2 units to win 1.98 units
10) Kings +135, 2 units to win 2.7 units
11) Bruins -150, 2 units to win 1.33 units
Good fortune.....
0
Posted:
#32
Playoffs NBA/NHL to date.....4-4 +5.36 units
Plays Thursday/Friday/Saturday....
5) NHL playoffs series game 3, Devils -1, +130, two units risked to make 2.6 units
6) NHL playoffs series game 3, Avalanche -1, -125, two units risked to make 1.6 units
8) NBA Warriors moneyline as part of a three team moneyline parlay, the first of which was the Bucks moneyline in series game two, last leg is XFL Seattle moneyline 2 units risked to win 2.2 units
9) Wild -101 NHL playoffs series game 3, risking 2 units to win 1.98 units
10) Kings +135, NHL playoffs series game 3, risking 2 units to win 2.7 units
11) Bruins -150, NHL playoffs series game 3, risking 2 units to win 1.33 units
12) NBA 76ers -4', NBA playoffs series game 3, risking one unit to win .91 unit
13) NBA Celtics UNDER 228', NBA playoffs series game 3, risking one unit to win .91 unit
14) NBA playoffs series game 3, Bucks -5', risking two units to win 1.82 units
15) NBA futures bet, Kings to win Western Conference 1.83 units risked to win 13.33 units
0
Posted:
#36
5) NHL playoffs series game 3, Devils -1, +130, two units risked to make 2.6 units.........loser, 2 units
6) NHL playoffs series game 3, Avalanche -1, -125, two units risked to make 1.6 units......draw
8) NBA Warriors moneyline as part of a three team moneyline parlay, the first of which was the Bucks moneyline in series game two, last leg is XFL Seattle moneyline 2 units risked to win 2.2 units.....still in play
9) Wild -101 NHL playoffs series game 3, risking 2 units to win 1.98 units..........winner, 1.98 units
10) Kings +135, NHL playoffs series game 3, risking 2 units to win 2.7 units.......winner, 2.7 units
11) Bruins -150, NHL playoffs series game 3, risking 2 units to win 1.33 units.....winner 1.33 units
0
Posted:
#39
After Friday night, NBA/NHL playoffs to date.....
8-6 straight up, +9.28 units
14) NBA playoffs series game 3, Bucks -5', risking two units to win 1.82 units
15) NBA futures bet, Kings to win Western Conference 1.83 units risked to win 13.33 units
16) NHL playoffs series game 3, Kraken +140, 2 units risked to win 2.8 units
17) NHL playoffs series game 3, Lightning +102, 2 units risked to win 2.04 units
0
Posted:
#40
Here is a further couple of angles that are interesting......
a) In the NHL playoffs, round 1 game four, a home dog down 1-2 in the series off a loss has been 5-15 straight up, +30.22% ROI going AGAINST, 5-12-3 o/u.
VERSUS Panthers and ON UNDER
series game=4 and round=1 and HD and p:L and series wins=1
On the other hand......
b) NHL home favorites in game four off a home win have been 16-9 straight up for an ROI of around 10%...this is profitable regardless of how many wins our home team has in the series.....however out of those 16 wins, 9 of them have been by one goal, so DON'T play these home favorites on the puckline. Seven out of the 25 games in the sample went to overtime with the home fav winning four.
Wild, Islanders with Saturday's games yet to be played....most likely if the Lightning and/or the Kraken win tomorrow they will be underdogs in game four....however if they lose and are underdogs in game four they would qualify in the previous angle detailed above.
series game=4 and round=1 and HF and p:W and series wins
0
Posted:
#42
Here is an interesting set of stats we'll keep our eye on in the NBA playoffs.......obviously the team that makes more three pointers versus their opponents will have the advantage.....they have covered the pointspread 64.4% of the time this season. Can we regress that team that made more from their previous game, or not?
Here's what we find so far....teams making more three pointers than their opponent the previous game in the NBA playoffs.....
c) Made more three pointers last game playing at home off a home game....5-2 ATS, 1-6 o/u....Clippers, Knicks, Warriors in games 4.
d) Made more three pointers previous game at home off an away game......5-2-1 ATS, 6-2 o/u....no team indicated.
e) Made more three pointers previous game away now playing an away game.....0-5 ATS, 3-2 o/u....VERSUS 76ers, Celtics, Nuggets
We'll see how this holds up.....I find that what works in the first four games of a series often does not hold up in series games 5, 6 and 7.
The amount of exact games in a series in the database breaks down to this.....
Series goes 4 games EXACT....50 times
Series goes five games EXACT 70 times
Series goes six games EXACT 92 times, or roughly a third of the time
Seven games EXACT 68 times
The team up 3 games to 2 in the NBA playoffs has historically won 62% of the games in the 6th game.
In the NHL playoffs the team up 3-2 wins 55% of the time.
0
Posted:
#45
Game 3, round 1 NHL playoffs.....
e) A home favorite that won game one on the road, lost game two on the road, and how are home favorites have gone 9-10 straight up as home favs, +17.5% going against.....VERSUS Jets
So game 3, if the sequence is away win G1, away loss G2, favors going AGAINST the favorite, whether they are home favorites or away favorites.
Knights had a ROI of >17% this year playing on the road
Adding:
Golden Knights +100, risking two units
f) An away dog in round 1 off two straight home losses has been 23-19 straight up, +38.74% ROI.....if this is game 3, this has been 6-4 straight up, +28.87% ROI......ON Devils
Adding:
Devils +130, risking two units
0
Posted:
#47
Final update as of Saturday.....
Saturdays plays:
1) NBA Bucks -5', two units
2) Knights +100, two units
3) Lightning +102, two units
4) Devils +130, two units
5) Kraken +140, two units
6) Lightning UNDER 6.5, 1 unit
7) Kraken OVER 6, 1 unit
Sunday
8) Bruins -150, 1 unit
9) Bruins UNDER 6, 1 unit
10) XFL Seattle moneyline to complete 3 team parlay
0
Posted:
#48
1) NBA Bucks -5', two units.........loser, 2 units
2) Knights +100, two units..........winner, 2 units
3) Lightning +102, two units.......blew late lead, loser two units
4) Devils +130, two units...........nice comeback, winner, 2.6 units
5) Kraken +140, two units.........loser, 2 units
6) Lightning UNDER 6.5, 1 unit...late goal killed total and side...loser, 1 unit
7) Kraken OVER 6, 1 unit.........winner, .91 units
today......3-4 straight up, -1.49 units
Sunday
8) Bruins -150, 1 unit
9) Bruins UNDER 6, 1 unit
10) XFL Seattle moneyline to complete 3 team parlay, 1.67 units to win 1.83 units
Adding:
11) NBA series game 4, Knicks/Cavaliers UNDER 206', 2 units
12) NBA series game 4, Warriors/Kings UNDER 237', 2 units
0
Posted:
#49
Sunday
Adding:
13). NBA game 4 Warriors -7'
8) Bruins -150, 1 unit
9) Bruins UNDER 6, 1 unit
10) XFL Seattle moneyline to complete 3 team parlay, 1.67 units to win 1.83 units
Adding:
11) NBA series game 4, Knicks/Cavaliers UNDER 206', 2 units
12) NBA series game 4, Warriors/Kings UNDER 237', 2 units
0
Posted:
#50
13) NBA game 4 Warriors -7', risking two units
14) NBA game 4 Nuggets -4, risking two units
15) NHL Islanders -120, risking two units
16) NHL Islanders UNDER 5.5, -145, risking two units
8) Bruins -150, 1 unit, risking one unit
9) BOUGHT OUT for a loss of .2 unit, so NO PLAY on the Bruins total
10) XFL Seattle moneyline to complete 3 team parlay, 1.67 units to win 1.83 units
Adding:
11) NBA series game 4, Knicks/Cavaliers UNDER 206', risking 2 units
12) NBA series game 4, Warriors/Kings UNDER 237', risking 2 units
0
Hot Forum Topics
