tech angles NHL

Using a database that goes back a few years, some will think this stuff is relevant and maybe most  won't.  Use it if you resonate, and don't if you don't.

1)  Round 1, game two teams that lost by a goal in game 1 as away dogs.....Islanders

  a)  13-14 straight up, 6-13-8 o/u

  b)  +17.7% return on investment

  c)  average line/total +142/5.2, average score 2.3-2.4 

  d) If our away dog that lost by one goal in game 1 was outshot this moves to 6-6 straight up, +33.6% ROI, 1-8-3 o/u, average score 2.0-2.0.

2)  Teams that won in overtime in game one on the road, how do they do their next game as away dogs in game two?.....Wild, Kings

  a)  In round one those overtime winners on the road as road dogs game two have gone 6-13 straight up, 8-7-1 o/u, with an ROI of +5.3% going AGAINST.

  b)  In any round they've gone 8-17 straight up, 11-13-1 o/u, with an ROI of 8.6% going AGAINST.

  c)  If our overtime winner was outshot in their win, they've gone 4-9 straight up for an ROI of 10.1% going AGAINST, 7-5-1 o/u....Wild, Kings

3)  Teams that lost by two goals exactly in game one on the road in round 1, how have they done as away dogs in game two?......Panthers

  a)  2-9 straight up, 27.8% ROI going AGAINST, 5-2-4 o/u, average line/total +170/5.3, average score 1.9-3.7.

Good fortune.....

Plays, game 2s:

1)  Parlay Bruins and Bruins OVER 6......+163, for one unit

2)  Parlay Oilers and Stars..........+146, for two units

3)  Islanders UNDER 5.5, -150, one unit

4)  Islanders +155, one unit

Appreciate the info

g/l

No worries, continued success....

NHL playoffs season to date....1-1, +.6 units, losing with the Islanders and winning with the Wild, each for two units

Thx, interesting stuff. Cfl guy!

Plays:  

NHL game 1s....

5)  NHL Jets +132, 2 units to win 2.64 units

6)  NHL Rangers +112, 2 units to win 2.24 units

______________________________________________

NBA

7)  Kings +800 to win Western Conference 1.8 units to win 12.8 units

8)  NBA parlay Warriors moneyline, Bucks moneyline, Seattle XFL moneyline, 2 units to win 2.2 units

___________________________________________________________________

Plays, game 2s:

1)  Parlay Bruins and Bruins OVER 6......+163, for one unit

2)  Parlay Oilers and Stars..........+146, for two units

3)  Islanders UNDER 5.5, -150, one unit

4)  Islanders +155, one unit

Correction.....

7)  Kings NBA +800 to win Western Conference.......1.67 units to win 13.36 units

I like your Kings bet. I think they might get by the Oilers in the 1st rd, and surprise practically all the pundits.

His Kings are the NBA ones.

@Redlad

 NBA kings vs golden state

Gl indi . Always liked bouncing these off ya in nfl forun

Ja, let's win a few.

It's raining cats and underdogs......

NHL game 1s....

5)  NHL Jets +132.....................2 units to win 2.64 units.........winner

6)  NHL Rangers +112................2 units to win 2.24 units........winner

Playoffs season-to-date  3-1, +5.44 units

_____________________________________________

NHL plays, series game 2s

1)  Parlay Bruins and Bruins/Panthers OVER 6......+163........one unit

2)  Parlay Oilers and Stars..........+146..............................two units

3)  Islanders UNDER 5.5, -150...........................................one unit

4)  Islanders +155...........................................................one unit

NBA plays

7)  Kings +800 to win Western Conference.........................1.67 units to win 13.33 units

8)  NBA/XFL 3 team parlay 1)  Warriors moneyline  2) Bucks moneyline  3)  Seattle XFL moneyline......................................................................2 units to win 2.2 units 

With all the home favorites losing in game 1s in the NHL, I've researched how they have done in game 2s.

1) Home favorite losers in their game 1, round 1 that outshot their opponent in their game 1 loss, in game 2 as home favorites have historically been the better play, going 21-8 straight up with an ROI of 10.7%, 11-15-3 o/u.....Stars, Oilers, Devils, Avalanche

Average line/total....-176/5.4, average score.......3.4-2.1.....these teams have covered the puckline (-1.5) 16 times and failed to cover 13 times.....so from a +EV basis, taking these teams on the puckline, rather than the moneyline has been the most advantageous.  Amazingly in our universe  of the world wide web I could not find one moneyline to puckline conversion table for hockey betting....I'd estimate that a -176 moneyllne would translate to a +155 puckline in hockey.

If we do the math..........16 wins multiplied by 1.55 units would give us 24.8 units of profit....we'd subtract the 13 one unit losses to get a net of 11.8 units on 29 units of risk to give us an return on investment of 11.8/29=.407, or a 40.7% ROI.....that is pretty darn good.....that being said, I am chickening out and almost certainly not  taking any of these teams on the puckline.....perhaps I will configure some of these teams to make them a -1 favorite, getting a push if they win by only one goal.

2)  Home favorite losers game 1 that were outshot that are home favorites in round 1 game two, have gone 12-10 straight up, 10-8-4 o/u for an ROI of -9.8%.....Maple Leafs, Golden Knights

Average line/total -166/5.2......average score 2.9-2.7

3)  Home favorites game 2 in round 1 that scored 2 or less goals in their home game one loss have gone 14-3 straight up (+26.7% ROI)  and 11-6 on the puckline......Stars, Devils, Knights, Avalanche

Average line/total -179/5.3.....average score.....3.6-1.8

GL sir  it looks like we could be in for some very good hockey in the first round.

Hey Fab...would like to see Oilers come through.

Ya i was shocked to see the oilers lose game 1 but my dad hates the oil so he made sure i knew who lost the game.lol

NBA series game 3s, round 1

a)  Away favorites game 3, off a home favorite win......39-29 ATS.....Celtics, 76ers, Suns

b)  If the game total is >200, 20-10 ATS

c)  Off one day's rest.......8-4 against the spread, 2-10 o/u.......Suns

d)  Off two day's rest....12-6-1 ATS, 11-8-1 o/u......Celtics, 76ers

Query text....

series game = 3 and AF and playoffs = 1 and round = 1 and p:HFW and total > 200 and rest

@Indigo999

 Indi getting a little ahead....

But for NBA in past 10-12 seasons (whatever u wanna use)

#1 to #4 seeds up 3-0 in round 1 series....how often  do they complete sweep in game 4 on the road....SU and ATS 

I ask cause of the "gentlemens sweep" I heard about for the first time the last couple nba seasons and it seems to be a thing....but I wonder if numbers back it up

NBA series game 3s

A game 3 away dog off a home favorite win where the series is tied 1-1 and the net over/under margin of the series is UNDER.....1-8 ATS, 0-9  straight up (-10.11).......VERSUS Cavaliers

series game = 3 and AD and playoffs = 1 and round = 1 and p:HFW and series wins = 1 and tS(ou margin, N=2)<0

Play:

9)  NBA NY Knicks -1', two units

Plays, game 2s:

10)  NHL Devils -1, +130, two units

11)  NHL Avalanche -1, -125, two units 

In round one teams up 3-0 in the NBA playoffs, in game four.....

  a)  as away dogs.....3-3 ATS, 2-4 straight up

  b)  as away favorites 24-17 ATS, 28-13 straight up

  c)  as home favorites 3-0 ATS, 3-0 straight up....(none of the home favorites were top four seeds)

@Indigo999

 Thanks! So the road faves hit pretty well for the sweep in round 1....I was wondering cause typically the nba has some disparity at the top

And cause I bet a couple teams to complete the sweep past few seasons and they both lost and finished the series next game for 4-1 series wins....gotta go back and see which round i bet them might not have been round 1

Great info thanks again

I took the average between the Bruins puckline and the Stars puckline to get an average line of -175 which, when we average the pucklines  of those two games  would equate to +150, -1.5 (not +155 as stated above in thread #15).  In actuality that would  give a 38% ROI (not 40%) for puckline betting on those home favorites that lost at home game 1 in a sample size of 29 games, but what is a couple of percentage points of profit among friends?.....