Sunday (YTD: 23-5 +18.88u)

Quote Originally Posted by vicb:

GL Spartacus.....good to see the success youre having!

Thanks vicb I appreciate it bud.

Yeah your right. I would suggest that no one tails any of my leans, only official plays.

For some reason this is longest I have ever debated a play for. First I was contemplating whether to take the game total over, or Philly TT over. Then I was trying to figure out whether I should make this a play at all or not. I decided that I had enough reason to back Philly TT in this spot.

Philadelphia is a great team both offensively and defensively this year, but they seem to be an even greater force on the road. Philadelphia's offense has been extremely potent this year. They rank #2 overall averaging 3.41 goals per game. They see a slight decrease in production on the road, still remaining quite productive again ranking #2 averaging 3.24 goals per game. Their Power Play is above average ranking #8 in PP% at 19.1% and #3 in PP goals scored with 34. They are even more impressive on the road ranking #10 in PP% at 20.0% and #2 in PP goals scored with 19. Their defense has been just as solid. They rank #9 overall allowing an average of 2.90 goals per game. Even more impressive is their defensive performance on the road. They rank #22 allowing an average of only 2.62 goals against. The Penalty Kill stays quite consistent as well. They rank #17 overall in PK% at 82.2% and #6 allowing 30 PP goals against. On the road we again see another improvement ranking #8 in PK% at 85.4% and #10 in PP goals against allowing 14.

To save some time I'll skip over Ottawa's offensive stats and jump directly to their defensive performance thus far. They are ranked #3 overall allowing an average of 3.26 goals per game. Things don't really change at home where they are ranked #1 allowing an average of 3.27 goals per game. Their Penalty Kill is pretty atrocious as well. They are ranked #24 over all in PK% at 80.0% and #2 in PP goals allowing with 35. Once again, at home they seem to be considerably worse. They rank second last at #29 in PK% at 74.4% and dead last in PP goals allowed at 21.

Philadelphia comes in facing a goalie who's GAA isn't all that great allowing 3.11 goals per game. Bryzgalov gets the start today for Philadelphia, and the games he starts are typically higher scoring games. Philadelphia also seems to give Bryzgalov a considerable amount of scoring support. The over has hit in 10 of his last 13 starts. The reasons I didn't go with the game total over had a large amount to do with Philadelphia's defensive performances on the road. Bryzgalov also seems to play much better on the road, largely due to the lack of pressure from a quite demanding crowd. Ottawa's horrible defensive performances and their absolutely horrendous PK is a large reason why I like this play so much. Philly ranks #2 in PP goals on the road, and Ottawa ranks 2^nd last in home PK% and dead last in PP goals allowed at home.

I really hope I can get a better handle on these Overs as they have been my Achilles heal thus far this year. Might have another play later. As always, Good luck everyone.

Sorry I said yesterday I was going to start posting my write ups at least a half hour before puck drop. Apparantly my capping and write ups take longer than I think. From now on I'll start 30 minutes earlier and then that will allow me to get my plays in earlier.

Quote Originally Posted by in_the_black:

GL today Spartacus.You always seem to be right on with your analysis.

Thanks in the black. I appreciate the kind worse bud.

Unfortunately Ottawa scores in the first minute. Now I need Philly to answer back.

And Philly answers right when I post lol.

Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus10:

Philadelphia TT o2.5 (-147) 1u

For some reason this is longest I have ever debated a play for. First I was contemplating whether to take the game total over, or Philly TT over. Then I was trying to figure out whether I should make this a play at all or not. I decided that I had enough reason to back Philly TT in this spot.

Philadelphia is a great team both offensively and defensively this year, but they seem to be an even greater force on the road. Philadelphia's offense has been extremely potent this year. They rank #2 overall averaging 3.41 goals per game. They see a slight decrease in production on the road, still remaining quite productive again ranking #2 averaging 3.24 goals per game. Their Power Play is above average ranking #8 in PP% at 19.1% and #3 in PP goals scored with 34. They are even more impressive on the road ranking #10 in PP% at 20.0% and #2 in PP goals scored with 19. Their defense has been just as solid. They rank #9 overall allowing an average of 2.90 goals per game. Even more impressive is their defensive performance on the road. They rank #22 allowing an average of only 2.62 goals against. The Penalty Kill stays quite consistent as well. They rank #17 overall in PK% at 82.2% and #6 allowing 30 PP goals against. On the road we again see another improvement ranking #8 in PK% at 85.4% and #10 in PP goals against allowing 14.

To save some time I'll skip over Ottawa's offensive stats and jump directly to their defensive performance thus far. They are ranked #3 overall allowing an average of 3.26 goals per game. Things don't really change at home where they are ranked #1 allowing an average of 3.27 goals per game. Their Penalty Kill is pretty atrocious as well. They are ranked #24 over all in PK% at 80.0% and #2 in PP goals allowing with 35. Once again, at home they seem to be considerably worse. They rank second last at #29 in PK% at 74.4% and dead last in PP goals allowed at 21.

Philadelphia comes in facing a goalie who's GAA isn't all that great allowing 3.11 goals per game. Bryzgalov gets the start today for Philadelphia, and the games he starts are typically higher scoring games. Philadelphia also seems to give Bryzgalov a considerable amount of scoring support. The over has hit in 10 of his last 13 starts. The reasons I didn't go with the game total over had a large amount to do with Philadelphia's defensive performances on the road. Bryzgalov also seems to play much better on the road, largely due to the lack of pressure from a quite demanding crowd. Ottawa's horrible defensive performances and their absolutely horrendous PK is a large reason why I like this play so much. Philly ranks #2 in PP goals on the road, and Ottawa ranks 2^nd last in home PK% and dead last in PP goals allowed at home.

I really hope I can get a better handle on these Overs as they have been my Achilles heal thus far this year. Might have another play later. As always, Good luck everyone.

Today: 1-0 +1u

It's nice to cash before the 1st period is even over. Should have just played both lol. On to the next one.

Quote Originally Posted by PTOTOUR:

outside taking christmas lights down and i missed it!  

Sorry PTO and Gus it is completely my fault. I NEED to start posting my plays and write ups earlier.

dick

brent

vic

vice

Decided to pass on the last 2 games. Was leaning on a couple of plays for the Anaheim game, but after capping that game it's just too hard of a game to get a real feel for. Both have inconsistent offenses, and pretty brutal defenses. Good luck which ever way everyone decides to go.