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    All Forums | NHL Betting Forum

    Playoff Futures

    dyamarik
    Fuse
    TarantulaTurk
    Crazy_Train
    smellybunty
    ...
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    dyamarik
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2026 - 8:26 AM ET #1

    East:  this Conference is wide open.  Any of the 8 teams getting in has legit shot to win 12 games and go to the Cup.  The Atlantic will sport 5 teams most likely, unless something crazy happens, and those two teams Ottowa and Bahstahn are not easy 1st round opponents for whoever takes the top seeds.  I think long odds bets on a few teams are worthwhile investments.  Bolts are clear Fave, but beatable as we saw in the past couple years.  Canes Andersen is a bit of a shell of his former self, and Bussi is basically a Rook, so they'll have their struggles.

    Like a lot of series ot go 6 or 7 as well in Round 1 in teh East.  Habs and Swords are solid teams, but relatively inexperienced in Cup hockey, and almost every team in East will have come close to almost 100 point seasons.  One strategy is to bet Series to go 6 games & 7 games in the +180 to +240 range.  Just need to have 2 series go 6 or 7 to make some coin.

    Not sure about West - not touching Futures there except a flier bet maybe a Pacific team like Ducks or Kings.  Shame that Stars and Mild face off Round 1 most likely.  Those are 2 of the top 5 teams in league, and both top 3 in West.  Avs path to Cup is very clear, and a larger wager on them to win Cup might be in order.

    Now about that Split...  Lipp's Playoff tactic has done poorly last couple playoffs.  Lots of Faves dominating Round 1 and 2 where the Split used to make us hay.  I like it this year, esp. in the East.  I think we'll have 3-4 Game 1 dogs come barking, and the East is more likely than West.  Problem is they won't be large dogs most of the time, but if we can get 3-4 dogs Game 1, the split has a shot to be relevant again.  I think it also helps that we have several teams coasting now - Avs, Canes, Stars, Bolts all on Auto-Pilot and could come out slow/sloppy Game 1.

    What do you want to talk about?

    an_speak

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    East:  this Conference is wide open.  Any of the 8 teams getting in has legit shot to win 12 games and go to the Cup.  The Atlantic will sport 5 teams most likely, unless something crazy happens, and those two teams Ottowa and Bahstahn are not easy 1st round opponents for whoever takes the top seeds.  I think long odds bets on a few teams are worthwhile investments.  Bolts are clear Fave, but beatable as we saw in the past couple years.  Canes Andersen is a bit of a shell of his former self, and Bussi is basically a Rook, so they'll have their struggles.

    Like a lot of series ot go 6 or 7 as well in Round 1 in teh East.  Habs and Swords are solid teams, but relatively inexperienced in Cup hockey, and almost every team in East will have come close to almost 100 point seasons.  One strategy is to bet Series to go 6 games & 7 games in the +180 to +240 range.  Just need to have 2 series go 6 or 7 to make some coin.

    Not sure about West - not touching Futures there except a flier bet maybe a Pacific team like Ducks or Kings.  Shame that Stars and Mild face off Round 1 most likely.  Those are 2 of the top 5 teams in league, and both top 3 in West.  Avs path to Cup is very clear, and a larger wager on them to win Cup might be in order.

    Now about that Split...  Lipp's Playoff tactic has done poorly last couple playoffs.  Lots of Faves dominating Round 1 and 2 where the Split used to make us hay.  I like it this year, esp. in the East.  I think we'll have 3-4 Game 1 dogs come barking, and the East is more likely than West.  Problem is they won't be large dogs most of the time, but if we can get 3-4 dogs Game 1, the split has a shot to be relevant again.  I think it also helps that we have several teams coasting now - Avs, Canes, Stars, Bolts all on Auto-Pilot and could come out slow/sloppy Game 1.

    What do you want to talk about?

    an_speak

     
    Fuse
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2026 - 9:20 AM ET #2

    D peaceclover

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
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    D peaceclover

     
    TarantulaTurk
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2026 - 11:06 AM ET #3

    @dyamarik

     I love your write ups. They're awesome. Good luck to you. 

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    @dyamarik

     I love your write ups. They're awesome. Good luck to you. 

     
    Crazy_Train
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2026 - 4:52 PM ET #4

    One strategy is to bet Series to go 6 games & 7 games in the +180 to +240 range.  Just need to have 2 series go 6 or 7 to make some coin.an_lightpeace_5

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    One strategy is to bet Series to go 6 games & 7 games in the +180 to +240 range.  Just need to have 2 series go 6 or 7 to make some coin.an_lightpeace_5

     
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2026 - 8:29 AM ET #5

    @Crazy_Train  did that last year in 3 series and won 2 of them.  The math works as long as the odds pan out.

    @TarantulaTurk  thx TT - just trying to create conversation so we can all beat our books... peace_5

    Lot of teams had clutch wins yesterday in Eastern Race: CLB, Philly, Wash.  And a few choked on a big one - looking at you Isles and Wings.  West is still big TBD but got a little clearer as the Jets clearly are getting ready for the 1st Tee (7-1 loss at Home to Gritties - fucking embarrassing loss).  Queens and Preds both had wins, so last playoff spot still up for grabs.  hell, if Oil, Quacks or even Vegas stumble next two games, Queens might even move up to Home ice Rd 1.

    Best Odds for the East:

    Sens +750

    Sabes +850

    Pens +1200

    Habs +1800

    Broons +2500

    Gritties +3300

    Blow Jobs +5000

    Crapitals +20K

     

    Betting now:

    Sens +750  1.25u

    Sabes +850 1u

    Habs +1800 1/2u

     

    Waiting on the rest peace_5

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    @Crazy_Train  did that last year in 3 series and won 2 of them.  The math works as long as the odds pan out.

    @TarantulaTurk  thx TT - just trying to create conversation so we can all beat our books... peace_5

    Lot of teams had clutch wins yesterday in Eastern Race: CLB, Philly, Wash.  And a few choked on a big one - looking at you Isles and Wings.  West is still big TBD but got a little clearer as the Jets clearly are getting ready for the 1st Tee (7-1 loss at Home to Gritties - fucking embarrassing loss).  Queens and Preds both had wins, so last playoff spot still up for grabs.  hell, if Oil, Quacks or even Vegas stumble next two games, Queens might even move up to Home ice Rd 1.

    Best Odds for the East:

    Sens +750

    Sabes +850

    Pens +1200

    Habs +1800

    Broons +2500

    Gritties +3300

    Blow Jobs +5000

    Crapitals +20K

     

    Betting now:

    Sens +750  1.25u

    Sabes +850 1u

    Habs +1800 1/2u

     

    Waiting on the rest peace_5

     
    smellybunty
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2026 - 11:05 AM ET #6

    I would love to say Sabres but I believe  only 1 team has missed the playoffs previous year and won the cup with the same starting goalie. That was the Blues in 2018 but Binnington wasnt the starter the previous year and they rode him all the way in the playoffs. So, even they pretty much had a different starter technically And he had an amazing .927 save percentage that year in the regular season in the games he played even though he didnt play the majority as the main starting goalie. Blues also had a winning season despite missing playoffs. Sabres dont have that to fall back on.

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    I would love to say Sabres but I believe  only 1 team has missed the playoffs previous year and won the cup with the same starting goalie. That was the Blues in 2018 but Binnington wasnt the starter the previous year and they rode him all the way in the playoffs. So, even they pretty much had a different starter technically And he had an amazing .927 save percentage that year in the regular season in the games he played even though he didnt play the majority as the main starting goalie. Blues also had a winning season despite missing playoffs. Sabres dont have that to fall back on.

     
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2026 - 7:13 AM ET #7

    @smellybunty

     Interesting data, but not sure what amount of relevance pertains to the situation I am projecting.  Based on the proposed hypothesis of requiring a goalie to be your starter in a season missing playoffs, then the following season winning the Cup, I would not doubt that there is a lot of data to support that almost never occurs.  However, I would also find a lot of data that supports the hypothesis of a team with same starting goalie making playoffs both seasons, and not winning the Cup in 2nd season almost as often, thus rendering the proposed hypothesis as more likely just random variation, and not supported by any data to make the trend valid.

    Basically, I am trying to bet 6 of 8 teams at long odds in hopes I get 1 or 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals (not winning the Cup itself) out of a field of 8.  I do not think the East Faves are as good as their odds (Bolts Canes in the +200ish range), so betting rest of field has a legit shot at going to the Cup.  Don't care about which Goalie is who or where, this is simply betting against the top two teams that one or both will not make it, and I have a chance to cash in the ECF.peace_5

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    @smellybunty

     Interesting data, but not sure what amount of relevance pertains to the situation I am projecting.  Based on the proposed hypothesis of requiring a goalie to be your starter in a season missing playoffs, then the following season winning the Cup, I would not doubt that there is a lot of data to support that almost never occurs.  However, I would also find a lot of data that supports the hypothesis of a team with same starting goalie making playoffs both seasons, and not winning the Cup in 2nd season almost as often, thus rendering the proposed hypothesis as more likely just random variation, and not supported by any data to make the trend valid.

    Basically, I am trying to bet 6 of 8 teams at long odds in hopes I get 1 or 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals (not winning the Cup itself) out of a field of 8.  I do not think the East Faves are as good as their odds (Bolts Canes in the +200ish range), so betting rest of field has a legit shot at going to the Cup.  Don't care about which Goalie is who or where, this is simply betting against the top two teams that one or both will not make it, and I have a chance to cash in the ECF.peace_5

     
    smellybunty
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2026 - 10:44 AM ET #8

    I see you are taking them just to make finals. Pretty good odds then for the east. Crazy sabres are at those odds and TB and Carolina are around +200

    Point being if something drastic like a goalie isnt change when you couldnt even make the playoffs what hope do you have to win the cup. I Mean Lyon wasnt the goalie last year so maybe they can ride him to the cup but hes been average so......I doubt it. I do underatnad taking a bunch of longshot type teams and just need 1 but longshots almost never win it without a great goalie. You have seen many longshots make the cup but never win. I believe Kings and Devils were 2. So, thats Brodeur and Quick. I dont think I have ever seen a goalie play better than Quick did in their playoff run and Brodeur and the early trap which was something new the Devils perfected

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    I see you are taking them just to make finals. Pretty good odds then for the east. Crazy sabres are at those odds and TB and Carolina are around +200

    Point being if something drastic like a goalie isnt change when you couldnt even make the playoffs what hope do you have to win the cup. I Mean Lyon wasnt the goalie last year so maybe they can ride him to the cup but hes been average so......I doubt it. I do underatnad taking a bunch of longshot type teams and just need 1 but longshots almost never win it without a great goalie. You have seen many longshots make the cup but never win. I believe Kings and Devils were 2. So, thats Brodeur and Quick. I dont think I have ever seen a goalie play better than Quick did in their playoff run and Brodeur and the early trap which was something new the Devils perfected

     
    Juisby737
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2026 - 11:13 AM ET #9

    I have…

     

    Avalanche      Stanley Cup        +300

     

    Avalanche - Lightning   Final          +725

     

     

     

    worried about the Habs 1st round, but Tampas experience should give them the edge. Outside of Montreal, I don’t see anyone beating Tampa in the East. 

    as for the west. Well Colorado has been the best all year. They’re also the deepest. I trust wedgewood to be the goalie they need. Only thing that might stop the MacKinnon train, would be McDavid and the oilers. But they might not even see each other. Wedgewood > Ingram.

     

     

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    I have…

     

    Avalanche      Stanley Cup        +300

     

    Avalanche - Lightning   Final          +725

     

     

     

    worried about the Habs 1st round, but Tampas experience should give them the edge. Outside of Montreal, I don’t see anyone beating Tampa in the East. 

    as for the west. Well Colorado has been the best all year. They’re also the deepest. I trust wedgewood to be the goalie they need. Only thing that might stop the MacKinnon train, would be McDavid and the oilers. But they might not even see each other. Wedgewood > Ingram.

     

     

     
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2026 - 7:51 PM ET #10

    @smellybunty

     I hear ya, and that makes logical sense.  This strategy is Goalie agnostic, as I am playing the 6 big ECF underdogs.  We'll see my friend - appreciate your posts and insight. peace_5 an_cheers

    @Juisby737

     Can't go wrong with Avs money, but I am staying away.  Presidents Trophy winners always find a way to lose.  Not sure who I bet instead, so that's why I am focused on the East.  BOL J clover

     

    Adding:

    Ottowans  +700  3/4u  and  previous Sens +750  1.25u

    Booffalos  +750  1/2u  and previous  Sabes +850 1u

    Cindy +1500  3/8u

    Le Habs +1600 1/2u  and  Habs +1800 1/2u

    Gritties +2500  1/4u

    Broons +2700  1/4u

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
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    @smellybunty

     I hear ya, and that makes logical sense.  This strategy is Goalie agnostic, as I am playing the 6 big ECF underdogs.  We'll see my friend - appreciate your posts and insight. peace_5 an_cheers

    @Juisby737

     Can't go wrong with Avs money, but I am staying away.  Presidents Trophy winners always find a way to lose.  Not sure who I bet instead, so that's why I am focused on the East.  BOL J clover

     

    Adding:

    Ottowans  +700  3/4u  and  previous Sens +750  1.25u

    Booffalos  +750  1/2u  and previous  Sabes +850 1u

    Cindy +1500  3/8u

    Le Habs +1600 1/2u  and  Habs +1800 1/2u

    Gritties +2500  1/4u

    Broons +2700  1/4u

     
    Anthony7Flores
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2026 - 8:33 PM ET #11

    Edmonton wins

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    Edmonton wins

     
    Anthony7Flores
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2026 - 8:34 PM ET #12

    Dont get your head hurt by thinking to much this is Oilers year. McDavid wont let it slip away this time"

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    Dont get your head hurt by thinking to much this is Oilers year. McDavid wont let it slip away this time"

     
    mr_armchair_qb
    mr_armchair_qb
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    Posts: 1850
    Posted: Apr. 15, 2026 - 11:27 PM ET #13

    FOR anyone who wants to know, teams playing well heading into the playoffs?

     

    WEST (LAST 10 GAMES)

    LA KINGS 16 POINTS

    VEGAS 15 POINTS

    DALLAS 15 POINTS

    EDMONTON 14 POINTS

    EAST (LAST 10 GAMES)

    CAROLINA 15 POINTS

    PHILADELPHIA 14 POINTS

    MONTREAL 14 POINTS

    OTTAWA 13 POINTS

    WEST (LAST 20 GAMES)

    COLORADO 26 POINTS

    DALLAS 26 POINTS

    LOS ANGELES 26 POINTS

    EDMONTON 25 POINTS

    EAST (LAST 20 GAMES)

    PHILADELPHIA 29 POINTS

    BUFFALO 29 POINTS

    OTTAWA 29 POINTS

    MONTREAL 28 POINTS

    WEST (LAST 30 GAMES)

    DALLAS 45 POINTS

    COLORADO 40 POINTS

    MINNESOTA 37 POINTS

    UTAH 34 POINTS

    EAST (LAST 30 GAMES)

    OTTAWA 44 POINTS

    CAROLINA 44 POINTS

    BUFFALO 44 POINTS

    MONTREAL 44 POINTS

    Looking at the numbers there are a few nice series dogs that have been playing well down the stretch

    One thing that stands out is how well the East has played over the last 20-30 games compared to the Western Conference. That could mean alot of things but those teams have been playing better hockey. Your cup winner could be deeply seeded in the east ready to make a charge for it all...

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    FOR anyone who wants to know, teams playing well heading into the playoffs?

     

    WEST (LAST 10 GAMES)

    LA KINGS 16 POINTS

    VEGAS 15 POINTS

    DALLAS 15 POINTS

    EDMONTON 14 POINTS

    EAST (LAST 10 GAMES)

    CAROLINA 15 POINTS

    PHILADELPHIA 14 POINTS

    MONTREAL 14 POINTS

    OTTAWA 13 POINTS

    WEST (LAST 20 GAMES)

    COLORADO 26 POINTS

    DALLAS 26 POINTS

    LOS ANGELES 26 POINTS

    EDMONTON 25 POINTS

    EAST (LAST 20 GAMES)

    PHILADELPHIA 29 POINTS

    BUFFALO 29 POINTS

    OTTAWA 29 POINTS

    MONTREAL 28 POINTS

    WEST (LAST 30 GAMES)

    DALLAS 45 POINTS

    COLORADO 40 POINTS

    MINNESOTA 37 POINTS

    UTAH 34 POINTS

    EAST (LAST 30 GAMES)

    OTTAWA 44 POINTS

    CAROLINA 44 POINTS

    BUFFALO 44 POINTS

    MONTREAL 44 POINTS

    Looking at the numbers there are a few nice series dogs that have been playing well down the stretch

    One thing that stands out is how well the East has played over the last 20-30 games compared to the Western Conference. That could mean alot of things but those teams have been playing better hockey. Your cup winner could be deeply seeded in the east ready to make a charge for it all...

     
    Ufo2112
    Ufo2112
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    Posts: 102
    Posted: Apr. 16, 2026 - 2:19 PM ET #14

    Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.

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    Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.

     
    UnderdogKing
    UnderdogKing
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    Posts: 4804
    Posted: Apr. 16, 2026 - 4:06 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112:

    Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.

    That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available.  I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112:

    Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.

    That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available.  I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.

     
    dyamarik
    dyamarik
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    Joined: Oct, 2002
    Posts: 12342
    Posted: Apr. 22, 2026 - 5:04 PM ET #16

    Added Utah Series down 0-1 (see Round One Strategy Thread for posted play) +280  1/2u

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
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    Added Utah Series down 0-1 (see Round One Strategy Thread for posted play) +280  1/2u

     
    vaas187
    vaas187
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    Joined: Feb, 2012
    Posts: 12519
    Posted: Apr. 22, 2026 - 5:52 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112: Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series. That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available.  I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.

    no lol. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112: Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series. That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available.  I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.

    no lol. 

     
     
    GASportsDoc
    GASportsDoc
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    Joined: Dec, 2013
    Posts: 32671
    Posted: Apr. 22, 2026 - 6:53 PM ET #18

    I am not talking to you...an_eek2

    Go Pens

     

    an_razz

    Those Who do not learn from History, are doomed to repeat it
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    I am not talking to you...an_eek2

    Go Pens

     

    an_razz

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