East: this Conference is wide open. Any of the 8 teams getting in has legit shot to win 12 games and go to the Cup. The Atlantic will sport 5 teams most likely, unless something crazy happens, and those two teams Ottowa and Bahstahn are not easy 1st round opponents for whoever takes the top seeds. I think long odds bets on a few teams are worthwhile investments. Bolts are clear Fave, but beatable as we saw in the past couple years. Canes Andersen is a bit of a shell of his former self, and Bussi is basically a Rook, so they'll have their struggles.
Like a lot of series ot go 6 or 7 as well in Round 1 in teh East. Habs and Swords are solid teams, but relatively inexperienced in Cup hockey, and almost every team in East will have come close to almost 100 point seasons. One strategy is to bet Series to go 6 games & 7 games in the +180 to +240 range. Just need to have 2 series go 6 or 7 to make some coin.
Not sure about West - not touching Futures there except a flier bet maybe a Pacific team like Ducks or Kings. Shame that Stars and Mild face off Round 1 most likely. Those are 2 of the top 5 teams in league, and both top 3 in West. Avs path to Cup is very clear, and a larger wager on them to win Cup might be in order.
Now about that Split... Lipp's Playoff tactic has done poorly last couple playoffs. Lots of Faves dominating Round 1 and 2 where the Split used to make us hay. I like it this year, esp. in the East. I think we'll have 3-4 Game 1 dogs come barking, and the East is more likely than West. Problem is they won't be large dogs most of the time, but if we can get 3-4 dogs Game 1, the split has a shot to be relevant again. I think it also helps that we have several teams coasting now - Avs, Canes, Stars, Bolts all on Auto-Pilot and could come out slow/sloppy Game 1.
What do you want to talk about?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
East: this Conference is wide open. Any of the 8 teams getting in has legit shot to win 12 games and go to the Cup. The Atlantic will sport 5 teams most likely, unless something crazy happens, and those two teams Ottowa and Bahstahn are not easy 1st round opponents for whoever takes the top seeds. I think long odds bets on a few teams are worthwhile investments. Bolts are clear Fave, but beatable as we saw in the past couple years. Canes Andersen is a bit of a shell of his former self, and Bussi is basically a Rook, so they'll have their struggles.
Like a lot of series ot go 6 or 7 as well in Round 1 in teh East. Habs and Swords are solid teams, but relatively inexperienced in Cup hockey, and almost every team in East will have come close to almost 100 point seasons. One strategy is to bet Series to go 6 games & 7 games in the +180 to +240 range. Just need to have 2 series go 6 or 7 to make some coin.
Not sure about West - not touching Futures there except a flier bet maybe a Pacific team like Ducks or Kings. Shame that Stars and Mild face off Round 1 most likely. Those are 2 of the top 5 teams in league, and both top 3 in West. Avs path to Cup is very clear, and a larger wager on them to win Cup might be in order.
Now about that Split... Lipp's Playoff tactic has done poorly last couple playoffs. Lots of Faves dominating Round 1 and 2 where the Split used to make us hay. I like it this year, esp. in the East. I think we'll have 3-4 Game 1 dogs come barking, and the East is more likely than West. Problem is they won't be large dogs most of the time, but if we can get 3-4 dogs Game 1, the split has a shot to be relevant again. I think it also helps that we have several teams coasting now - Avs, Canes, Stars, Bolts all on Auto-Pilot and could come out slow/sloppy Game 1.
@Crazy_Train did that last year in 3 series and won 2 of them. The math works as long as the odds pan out.
@TarantulaTurk thx TT - just trying to create conversation so we can all beat our books...
Lot of teams had clutch wins yesterday in Eastern Race: CLB, Philly, Wash. And a few choked on a big one - looking at you Isles and Wings. West is still big TBD but got a little clearer as the Jets clearly are getting ready for the 1st Tee (7-1 loss at Home to Gritties - fucking embarrassing loss). Queens and Preds both had wins, so last playoff spot still up for grabs. hell, if Oil, Quacks or even Vegas stumble next two games, Queens might even move up to Home ice Rd 1.
Best Odds for the East:
Sens +750
Sabes +850
Pens +1200
Habs +1800
Broons +2500
Gritties +3300
Blow Jobs +5000
Crapitals +20K
Betting now:
Sens +750 1.25u
Sabes +850 1u
Habs +1800 1/2u
Waiting on the rest
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
1
@Crazy_Train did that last year in 3 series and won 2 of them. The math works as long as the odds pan out.
@TarantulaTurk thx TT - just trying to create conversation so we can all beat our books...
Lot of teams had clutch wins yesterday in Eastern Race: CLB, Philly, Wash. And a few choked on a big one - looking at you Isles and Wings. West is still big TBD but got a little clearer as the Jets clearly are getting ready for the 1st Tee (7-1 loss at Home to Gritties - fucking embarrassing loss). Queens and Preds both had wins, so last playoff spot still up for grabs. hell, if Oil, Quacks or even Vegas stumble next two games, Queens might even move up to Home ice Rd 1.
I would love to say Sabres but I believe only 1 team has missed the playoffs previous year and won the cup with the same starting goalie. That was the Blues in 2018 but Binnington wasnt the starter the previous year and they rode him all the way in the playoffs. So, even they pretty much had a different starter technically And he had an amazing .927 save percentage that year in the regular season in the games he played even though he didnt play the majority as the main starting goalie. Blues also had a winning season despite missing playoffs. Sabres dont have that to fall back on.
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I would love to say Sabres but I believe only 1 team has missed the playoffs previous year and won the cup with the same starting goalie. That was the Blues in 2018 but Binnington wasnt the starter the previous year and they rode him all the way in the playoffs. So, even they pretty much had a different starter technically And he had an amazing .927 save percentage that year in the regular season in the games he played even though he didnt play the majority as the main starting goalie. Blues also had a winning season despite missing playoffs. Sabres dont have that to fall back on.
Interesting data, but not sure what amount of relevance pertains to the situation I am projecting. Based on the proposed hypothesis of requiring a goalie to be your starter in a season missing playoffs, then the following season winning the Cup, I would not doubt that there is a lot of data to support that almost never occurs. However, I would also find a lot of data that supports the hypothesis of a team with same starting goalie making playoffs both seasons, and not winning the Cup in 2nd season almost as often, thus rendering the proposed hypothesis as more likely just random variation, and not supported by any data to make the trend valid.
Basically, I am trying to bet 6 of 8 teams at long odds in hopes I get 1 or 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals (not winning the Cup itself) out of a field of 8. I do not think the East Faves are as good as their odds (Bolts Canes in the +200ish range), so betting rest of field has a legit shot at going to the Cup. Don't care about which Goalie is who or where, this is simply betting against the top two teams that one or both will not make it, and I have a chance to cash in the ECF.
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@smellybunty
Interesting data, but not sure what amount of relevance pertains to the situation I am projecting. Based on the proposed hypothesis of requiring a goalie to be your starter in a season missing playoffs, then the following season winning the Cup, I would not doubt that there is a lot of data to support that almost never occurs. However, I would also find a lot of data that supports the hypothesis of a team with same starting goalie making playoffs both seasons, and not winning the Cup in 2nd season almost as often, thus rendering the proposed hypothesis as more likely just random variation, and not supported by any data to make the trend valid.
Basically, I am trying to bet 6 of 8 teams at long odds in hopes I get 1 or 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals (not winning the Cup itself) out of a field of 8. I do not think the East Faves are as good as their odds (Bolts Canes in the +200ish range), so betting rest of field has a legit shot at going to the Cup. Don't care about which Goalie is who or where, this is simply betting against the top two teams that one or both will not make it, and I have a chance to cash in the ECF.
I see you are taking them just to make finals. Pretty good odds then for the east. Crazy sabres are at those odds and TB and Carolina are around +200
Point being if something drastic like a goalie isnt change when you couldnt even make the playoffs what hope do you have to win the cup. I Mean Lyon wasnt the goalie last year so maybe they can ride him to the cup but hes been average so......I doubt it. I do underatnad taking a bunch of longshot type teams and just need 1 but longshots almost never win it without a great goalie. You have seen many longshots make the cup but never win. I believe Kings and Devils were 2. So, thats Brodeur and Quick. I dont think I have ever seen a goalie play better than Quick did in their playoff run and Brodeur and the early trap which was something new the Devils perfected
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I see you are taking them just to make finals. Pretty good odds then for the east. Crazy sabres are at those odds and TB and Carolina are around +200
Point being if something drastic like a goalie isnt change when you couldnt even make the playoffs what hope do you have to win the cup. I Mean Lyon wasnt the goalie last year so maybe they can ride him to the cup but hes been average so......I doubt it. I do underatnad taking a bunch of longshot type teams and just need 1 but longshots almost never win it without a great goalie. You have seen many longshots make the cup but never win. I believe Kings and Devils were 2. So, thats Brodeur and Quick. I dont think I have ever seen a goalie play better than Quick did in their playoff run and Brodeur and the early trap which was something new the Devils perfected
worried about the Habs 1st round, but Tampas experience should give them the edge. Outside of Montreal, I don’t see anyone beating Tampa in the East.
as for the west. Well Colorado has been the best all year. They’re also the deepest. I trust wedgewood to be the goalie they need. Only thing that might stop the MacKinnon train, would be McDavid and the oilers. But they might not even see each other. Wedgewood > Ingram.
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I have…
Avalanche Stanley Cup +300
Avalanche - Lightning Final +725
worried about the Habs 1st round, but Tampas experience should give them the edge. Outside of Montreal, I don’t see anyone beating Tampa in the East.
as for the west. Well Colorado has been the best all year. They’re also the deepest. I trust wedgewood to be the goalie they need. Only thing that might stop the MacKinnon train, would be McDavid and the oilers. But they might not even see each other. Wedgewood > Ingram.
I hear ya, and that makes logical sense. This strategy is Goalie agnostic, as I am playing the 6 big ECF underdogs. We'll see my friend - appreciate your posts and insight.
@Juisby737
Can't go wrong with Avs money, but I am staying away. Presidents Trophy winners always find a way to lose. Not sure who I bet instead, so that's why I am focused on the East. BOL J
Adding:
Ottowans +700 3/4u and previous Sens +750 1.25u
Booffalos +750 1/2u and previous Sabes +850 1u
Cindy +1500 3/8u
Le Habs +1600 1/2u and Habs +1800 1/2u
Gritties +2500 1/4u
Broons +2700 1/4u
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@smellybunty
I hear ya, and that makes logical sense. This strategy is Goalie agnostic, as I am playing the 6 big ECF underdogs. We'll see my friend - appreciate your posts and insight.
@Juisby737
Can't go wrong with Avs money, but I am staying away. Presidents Trophy winners always find a way to lose. Not sure who I bet instead, so that's why I am focused on the East. BOL J
FOR anyone who wants to know, teams playing well heading into the playoffs?
WEST (LAST 10 GAMES)
LA KINGS 16 POINTS
VEGAS 15 POINTS
DALLAS 15 POINTS
EDMONTON 14 POINTS
EAST (LAST 10 GAMES)
CAROLINA 15 POINTS
PHILADELPHIA 14 POINTS
MONTREAL 14 POINTS
OTTAWA 13 POINTS
WEST (LAST 20 GAMES)
COLORADO 26 POINTS
DALLAS 26 POINTS
LOS ANGELES 26 POINTS
EDMONTON 25 POINTS
EAST (LAST 20 GAMES)
PHILADELPHIA 29 POINTS
BUFFALO 29 POINTS
OTTAWA 29 POINTS
MONTREAL 28 POINTS
WEST (LAST 30 GAMES)
DALLAS 45 POINTS
COLORADO 40 POINTS
MINNESOTA 37 POINTS
UTAH 34 POINTS
EAST (LAST 30 GAMES)
OTTAWA 44 POINTS
CAROLINA 44 POINTS
BUFFALO 44 POINTS
MONTREAL 44 POINTS
Looking at the numbers there are a few nice series dogs that have been playing well down the stretch
One thing that stands out is how well the East has played over the last 20-30 games compared to the Western Conference. That could mean alot of things but those teams have been playing better hockey. Your cup winner could be deeply seeded in the east ready to make a charge for it all...
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FOR anyone who wants to know, teams playing well heading into the playoffs?
WEST (LAST 10 GAMES)
LA KINGS 16 POINTS
VEGAS 15 POINTS
DALLAS 15 POINTS
EDMONTON 14 POINTS
EAST (LAST 10 GAMES)
CAROLINA 15 POINTS
PHILADELPHIA 14 POINTS
MONTREAL 14 POINTS
OTTAWA 13 POINTS
WEST (LAST 20 GAMES)
COLORADO 26 POINTS
DALLAS 26 POINTS
LOS ANGELES 26 POINTS
EDMONTON 25 POINTS
EAST (LAST 20 GAMES)
PHILADELPHIA 29 POINTS
BUFFALO 29 POINTS
OTTAWA 29 POINTS
MONTREAL 28 POINTS
WEST (LAST 30 GAMES)
DALLAS 45 POINTS
COLORADO 40 POINTS
MINNESOTA 37 POINTS
UTAH 34 POINTS
EAST (LAST 30 GAMES)
OTTAWA 44 POINTS
CAROLINA 44 POINTS
BUFFALO 44 POINTS
MONTREAL 44 POINTS
Looking at the numbers there are a few nice series dogs that have been playing well down the stretch
One thing that stands out is how well the East has played over the last 20-30 games compared to the Western Conference. That could mean alot of things but those teams have been playing better hockey. Your cup winner could be deeply seeded in the east ready to make a charge for it all...
Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.
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Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.
Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.
That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available. I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112:
Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series.
That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available. I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.
Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112: Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series. That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available. I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.
no lol.
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Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:
Quote Originally Posted by Ufo2112: Tampa Bay at -260 against Montreal is very strange (unless im seeing it wrong). They had the same number of points in regular season. I think Vegas is telling you TB wins that series. That's the only series I feel confident about from what's available. I think TB handles Montreal fairly easily in 5 games.
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