OCT 29

4-4    -86

CLB TT U3.5 -138

@Raiders22

 Gl r22

So regarding your topic about wager volume, how much edge do you need to make a play? 1%? 2%? 3%? Less than 1%? What triggers a play for you

Using you above play. -138 odds requires a 57.98% win rate to break even, what do your numbers have this under 3.5 bet hitting at, percentage wise? Assuming that's how you decide whether the play is + EV and therefore placing the wager

Just curious as I enjoy discussing numbers and other successful cappers ways of doing things 

@dubz4dummyz

It is based on CLB lack of scoring at home and a few other things I look at when matching up these teams and goalies and form.

To start with CLB is 4-5 on their TTs.

They are 0-4 on TTs at home.

Then I look at eGF and eGA for both teams.

Then I consider form, etc.

The issue is that TOR is not really playing that well on the road.

When I factor in all of the regular stats, advanced stats, and the other things I look at I come up with a variety of potential scores.  They range from 2.8-2.4 to 3.4-3.3.  Mostly it comes down to a 2-2 or 3-3 game.  So, I have to worry about an empty net goal or an OT game that skews the game because it looks to be a close game.

-138 is 57.98% I worked it out to right at -160 which is 61.54%

This, in theory, would be an -3.56% edge.

This generally is not worth betting to me.  I like a 5% or better edge.

But in NHL and MLB it is slightly different than in NFL.  Because you have a lot more chances throughout the year for the smaller edges to win out.

Over 17 games you need bigger edges than you would in 82 or 162 games.

So, I initially would have skipped this game.  I usually look at ML, PL, Total, TTs, -1, Regulation plays in NHL.

This was the only thing in this game where I saw an edge at all that was worth considering a bet.

To be honest I also feel that it is the only NHL game tonight and that TOR will be hyped and the ‘sense’ of Bluejays playing at the same time added to me making a play.

From a trend and momentum side you can say TOR is due to play better on the road and CLB is due to play better at home.  Or you can say play CLB TT UNDER at home until they turn it around.

But I just see a very slight +EV and edge on this play.

It is worth a very small play or just skip it altogether.

Good luck Raider!

@Raiders22

 Gotcha, I have a similar way of doing things

Also similar with NFL, larger wagers because if I have 30-40 bets over the season it ends up  being the same amount risked over 100-150 bets in the nhl season

Gl tonight

22 

@dubz4dummyz

 Both of yall are spot on about season lengths.. to add to it, they’re all pros, get paid regardless and most importantly HUMAN… can’t expect even the best of the best that ever “bested” to give full effort every night during a NHL, MLB or NBA season..lol

but can slightly “expect it” more, with a “win now” mentality due to the 18week structure of NFL seasons

SN: kinda why I’m not crazy about player props.. not in a sense like “I always lose” but moreso just don’t find them appealing. And of course with the current news, definitely didn’t enhance that appeal. Lol

@dubz4dummyz

@G00Dsh0t

Yes.  The way I like to demonstrate it is in tennis.  The better player will always have a better chance to come out on top in a best 3 of 5 sets as opposed to a best 2 of 3 sets.

The same thing with MLB playoffs.  The best team has a much better chance to win a best 4 of 7 game series as opposed to a best 2 of 3 game series.

The better team or player has a longer time for the skill to overcome a bit of bad luck early.

The same for betting.  The need for a better edge is higher for a shorter-season sport like NFL.

omggg who does this math before wagering? not saying you, this is just such a convoluted way to go about an activity which will more than likely prove unprofitable over time regardless. 

GL R!

You can pretty much set it up to do it automatically with a bit of code and an algorithm.  With any model you set up that uses statistics or anything like that, you just parse out the ones you want to use and how important they are and assign a value.  Then it is just a matter of updating it as you go.  It actually is not that time-consuming.  You are not necessarily having to 'do all of this math' each time once you have everything set up.

I would also argue that it is the best way to actually be profitable.  Otherwise, if you are just going by feel or trend or momentum, or even for fun you have no idea if you are making a +EV wager or not.  In a real sense you are blindly betting just to bet.

Say, for example, you like the Blackhawks and bet them no matter what, then it does not matter to you whether you have a wager that will win longterm or not.  You just bet for fun or action.  That is fine also.

If you want to be profitable you have to have a sense of whether Blackhawks +120 is profitable in this situation over time.  Not just to get 'lucky' this one time.

If you think +120 is profitable you have to decide at what rate it is to decide how much to wager.  

What if +120 is barely profitable but you can only find +115, do you still bet just to bet if it is only breakeven.  Then what if you find +125, do you add more to it to maximize.

These are the things I think a bettor needs to have some sense of to be profitable.  Yes, you can do a large part of it by intuition or 'experience'.  But you really have no idea if you cannot figure out the hold across both sides of the wager or the breakeven point in your wager or if you are not scaling appropriately.

There are breakeven calculators online.

Then you can track your success by month, by season and by sport.  If it is not profitable consistently, then you need to adjust some things.

But if someone does not want to go through what it takes to be profitable and just wants to be a casual bettor and is not really concerned about profitability but only cares about the action, then that is fine also.

Just because a bet wins does not mean it is a profitable play over time; just because a bet loses does not mean it is a nonprofitable play over time.

Love the insights