Wk 15 interesting line

[Quote: Originally Posted by Boisestateand8]Seems weird to say this COULD be a trap game for the Packers, but this is a classic sandwich spot. With Green Bay off three straight division wins, including last week's nail biter over Chicago, and with a Bears rematch on deck, Denver looks like a solid play here as a home dog. Next week's game matters FAR more to Green Bay than this interconference showdown, and the Broncos are 3-1 SU and ATS as a dog this year.

Great POST Boise..Denver not losing At Home Sunday...Packers record in Denver 1-7...

Pack has much much more important game next week vs Da Bears..

Can't Believe all the disrespect for AFC's #1 seed.. Like Bo said,  his mom think Broncos WIN too

@iConsciousness

Powerful take.

Broncos offense vs the Packers defense:

Let's start upfront in the trenches. PFF has the Broncos o line rated #1 after 14 weeks. They have the Packers d line ranked #7.

Broncos o line pressure rate allowed #2 at 30.1%, no blitz pressure rate allowed #3 at 28.2%.

Vs

Packers d line pressure rate #11 at 38.2%, no blitz pressure allowed #23 at 35.6%.

From the running game perspective:

Broncos o line yards gained before contact #3 at 1.7 yards. *note there are 3 teams tied for first at 2.1 yards*

Packers d line yards allowed before contact 1.3 yards. In the top 50% of teams, close to middle. 

Since week 10:

Broncos rush epa #16, rush success rate #6

Packers defensive rush epa #12, rush success rate #23

The Broncos tendencies on offense aren't really balanced.

They use the shotgun 63.6% of the time, the 20th rate of all teams. Remember guys, the less shotgun the better in the nfl.

They use motion only 39.9% of the time. The second least amount in the league. Most teams like to motion to determine if a defense is in man or zone coverage.

They use play action only 13.7% of the time. 7th least in the nfl. Just for reference, the teams that use PA less than the Broncos(in descending order) the Bucs, Saints, Eagles, Jets, Bengals and Falcons. Not exactly good offenses.

The Broncos use the 10th highest 3 WR set rate, and 8th lowest multiple TE set rate.

A poster earlier said that he expects a rock fight, and suggested an alternative total on the under. I'm leaning that way as well with everything I've seen so far.

@undermysac

 Great stats ! 

Packers defensive tendencies:

Low blitz rate, only 19.6% of the time and 4th least in the nfl. 

The Packers sit back in the zone 78.2% of the time, the 7th highest zone rate.

How does this look for Bo Nix?

We already know that the Packers no blitz pressure rate is #23 at 35.6%

Bo Nix is not good against zone. His comp percentage is 64.6% and 32nd in the league. His passer rating vs zone is 83.7 and 31st in the league. 

Believe it or not, Bo excels vs pressure and man defense, things the Packers don't want to do coverage wise, and don't do too well rushing the passer wise.

He's 18th in pressured competition rate, 12th in blitzed comp percentage, but 26th in clean pocket comp percentage. 

Just from watching him this year, the #'s above do make sense. How many times have you seen him drop back with no pressure and he finds himself gun shy. But when the heat is on, he feels more comfortable letting it rip on the move. Sort of comparable to Caleb Williams in that regard. 

To his defense, if just a little, his receivers haven't been a huge help. They rank dead middle(#15) in target separation at 1.97. They rank 23rd in supporting cast efficiency, and 28th in YAC.

One puzzling thing to me is that Bo has the 13th best play action comp percentage, and throws the 11th best play action catchable ball, but Sean Payton dials up PA sparingly.

His brightest spot this year has been a very good red zone completion % of 62.5%. 8th best in the nfl. Have to give him credit there, making throws when they count most.

The Packers D has allowed a 58.33% redzone scoring percentage this year. 18th in the nfl. But on the road, they have allowed 65% redzone scoring. 9th worst.

Denver is 13th in redzone scoring percentage at 59.09%.

the total has moved to 42.5 the last day or 2.

Need to let the public bump this back up.

I do what I can. 

Sdql guys, how about some help.

When a team comes off 3 straight division wins, then plays otr in a non conference game....what's the history?

After looking at this matchup more closely I’m leaning packers, based on recent form

in the last several games, compared to the broncos, the packers seem to be playing better defense, and are more committed to the running game, which is more important in late season weather.    Also the broncos commit a lot of penalties, which could be the difference between winning and losing when facing better quality opponents 

Also apparently teams are starting to effectively neutralize the broncos simulated pressure looks with quick passes, which Love and the Packers have the talent and experience to do.   Can Vance Joseph make the necessary adjustments to keep the packers offense in check?

the packers have the more experienced QB and the more polished offense IMO and that might be the deciding factor in this game

https://www.packers.com/team/injury-report/index-mobile-view?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22452176625&gbraid=0AAAAADrT4tInornzcXI4OBUWfkl5TgOyA&gclid=CjwKCAiAl-_JBhBjEiwAn3rN7Y_llESuv0d6msY9RvXYIHLsdAXLzla71Sa6BJrSE2sV-Qwt50AYihoCcUkQAvD_BwE

A long laundry list for the Packers. 

Josh Jacobs might be concerning. But personally I'm a big fan of Emanuel Wilson, he deserves more carries. Unfortunately they'll only come with Jacobs absence. This could be the case this Sunday. Maybe more of a split if Jocobs goes.

Biggest name on the report imo is Mike Mcglinchy for the Broncos. Who's gonna block Parsons if he doesn't play?

Don't worry about Ben Powers on the list. He's been on IR and designated to return. 

DJ Jones practiced in full thur/fri. He's the Broncos nose tackle, key to their run D.

The under is setting up nicely I think. Even with real nice weather expected in Denver.

Would love to know any results on this. I can't use killersports I'm too dumb.

I could imagine little to no results, the question is fairly particular and doesn't feel like it's happened often.

Thanks in advance 

https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/green-bay-packers/josh-jacobs-injury-emanuel-wilson-broncos-week-15/

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/green-bay-packers-news/76364/packers-elevate-running-back-to-gameday-roster-vs-denver-broncos-josh-jacobs-injury-update

Packers 1-7 SU in Denver since 1975

Only win came on 10/29/07 as a 3 point dog where they won 19-13

This line got bet down 1 pt mid week, with all over money coming in since, and hasn't bugged. I'll take a shot.

U42.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Good Luck 

Per Pro Football Focus:

"Jordan Love dealt with an incredible 27 dropbacks under pressure, a season high. He took three sacks, scrambled three times, threw the ball away three times and threw two interceptions. His passer rating when pressured was only 32.3. Playing winning football when your quarterback is so consistently disrupted in the pocket is tough to do"

Hindsight is 20/20, but should of taken the Broncos instead of an under that was almost dead at halftime. 

For any Broncos fans out there, Bo Nix had 4 td's, no picks, and wasn't sacked once vs the Packers who ran primarily zone defense yesterday. 

The #'s showed us that this was Bo's kryptonite all year. His passer rating vs zone on the year was 83.7, yesterday he posted a 134.7 rating.

Watch out AFC if this was a stepping stone for him.