Wk 15 interesting line

I like the Packers here.

i believe their Defense is better overall on all 3 levels maybe except speed compare to the Broncos. They have all of their WRs playing now. Big plus! 

only disadvantage is home field and the home pup theory for me here. 

i firmly believe the Packers have the better offense too! While Love makes some very questionable throws at times, he seems more reliable than Nix in terms of not throwing the ball to the ground or making a nine headed throw. Jacobs is good at football, I’m sure the Broncos miss JK big time. 

should be a good game, I was hoping for a Den -2 to -3 spread! 

not sure if I will bet this game yet 

Here's a cool trend

Teams after playing the Bears are 2-9-1 straight up in their next game.

Combine elevation into the equation....

If you guys have watched any Bears games this year, they are undoubtedly physical at the line of scrimmage. 

I personally remember getting on such a trend with the Ravens a few years ago when Todd Monken was their OC. It lasted for about 2 seasons give or take, and remembering it being an outstanding 12-3 ats at it's best point. Fading teams after playing those Ravens was gold.

Could this carry on here with after playing the Bears?

Naturally, since we have the "after a Bears game" trend above, let's see how teams do following a Raiders game. Since the Broncos just played them.

8-4 SU

Average score 23.75 to 24.25

A small winning margin of +0.50. But we are getting points here on the Broncos. And fwiw, the 4 teams to lose following a Raiders game were the Commanders, Titans, Jaguars, and Browns. 3 of the 4 were bad teams.

I wouldn't put the Broncos in the "bad" category. 

One could argue that this trend doesn't mean shit, and maybe it doesn't. But I could definitely ask the question, "how much preparation and effort did these teams make before facing the Raiders?"

I would say not too much.

As for the Packers facing the Bears last week, you know damn well how much that game meant. Both were 9-3 heading into that game, both division rivals, and the Bears were holding the #1 seed in the NFC at the time.

This game figures to be a rock fight. I like u35.5 +230

I know the Steelers in 2004 with a rookie Big Ben had a big 15 game winning streak and would be 2.5 underdogs in the AFC Championship game against the Pats in Pittsburgh..The Pats would win 41-27 that day but I believe that's the last time a team with a 10+ winning streak was an underdog...Will see what happens 

Packers in a teaser with Bears. 

I figured years ago DVOA ratings were 4 to 1 on the line.

So divide the difference of 8 by 4 = Packers -2

Not sure what I did with home field advantage, don't remember  that part.

I assume those DVOA ratings don't include Broncos having home field.

Packers are 0-5 ATS when -7 or more.

Under -7 they are 6-2 ATS.

WITH a line of 3 or less  the SU winner covers about 90% of the time.

I believe every game Packers won has been by 7 pts or more with only 1 or 2 exceptions. 

They did win by 4 one game.

Seems weird to say this COULD be a trap game for the Packers, but this is a classic sandwich spot. With Green Bay off three straight division wins, including last week's nail biter over Chicago, and with a Bears rematch on deck, Denver looks like a solid play here as a home dog. Next week's game matters FAR more to Green Bay than this interconference showdown, and the Broncos are 3-1 SU and ATS as a dog this year.

They don't, just the overall rating of the team 

Great dig 

Been thinking that a little, and looking at that week 16 game already. It will also be the Packers 3rd road game in 4 weeks. 

Have to check the weather and multiple other factors for a feel on the total. 

The current total sits at 43.5 

The Broncos in the month of December, at home, as dogs from 0 to +3 points are:

4-2 su, 4-2 ats, 1-5 o/u

This # doesn't happen for them much at all. The query starts in 1988 and ends in 2017. So in other words they haven't been home under dogs of 0 to +3 in December in 8 years.

The Packers in the month of December, otr, as favs from 0 to -3 points are:

7-3 su, 7-3 ats, 7-3 o/u last 10

The query starts in 2002, and ends in 2024. Games including Matt LaFleur as coach, 2-0 su&ats

@undermysac

 Keep it going 

Here's some rubbish that won't matter much really, just some coach vs coach history.

Sean Payton vs Jeff Hafley in 2016, Hafley was just the Niners DB coach at the time.

The Saints won 41-23, Drew Brees put up 323 yards, 3 tds, no interceptions. 

Vance Joseph in 2021 as the Cardinals DC lost to LaFleur's Packers 21-24.

Aaron Rodgers put up 184 yards, 2 td's, no interceptions. 

Vance Joseph in 2023 as the Broncos DC beat LaFleur's Packers 19-17.

Jordan Love threw for 180, 2 td's, 1 interception. 

@football_007

 I'm a huge Greg Maddux fan, grew up watching the professor in Chicago. Tried my hardest to make my 2 seamer tail like his, I failed over n over.

But I threw a mean knuckle curve.

Fun facts....

Bo Nix started in 16 more games in college than Jeff Hafley has coached in college.

Bo Nix has started in as many NFL games as Jeff Hafley has coached as a defensive coordinator in the NFL.

Broncos are 9-2 in 1 score close games. Of their 13 games 11 have been 1 score games.

Colin Cowherd said he hears close wins are not repeatable but he disagreed with that and said Denver certainly can continue to win close 1 score games even into the playoffs.

Ha, if Colin said it we should know he won't be correct.

Bears are 6-2, for what it may or may not be worth of the rare game these 2 teams won by double digits they both beat Cowboys.

Bears by 17 and Denver by 20, pretty close to the same margin.

Both teams have 2 wins each by double digit and Boys are one of those 2 this before Boys started playing better and winning.

Not only is close wins not repeatable but close wins is not indicative of good teams.

Good teams will have more double digit wins then 2 after 13 games.

Let's talk some matchups.

There are some similarities with Vance Joseph and the Bears DC Dennis Allen, the defense that Jordan Love faced last week.

Both like to blitz.

The Bears blitz at a 29.8% rate, while the Broncos blitz at a 30.6% rate. This is especially dangerous vs Love when you play man coverage behind those blitzes.

Jordan Love is 3rd in QBR vs man coverage this year at 120.8. The Broncos run man coverage 33.2% of the time, 3rd most in the nfl. The Bears in comparison run man at 30.6% or 8th most.

If you watched last week's game, you would of known the Nickel Corner Kyler Gordon got hurt in pre game warmups and didn't play. He is one of the best Nickel guys in the league. The Packers smoked the Bears out of the slot last week, especially on man coverage. The 41 yard td to Christian Watson was vs a 7 man blitz with zone behind it.

The Broncos Nickel CB is Ja'Quon McMillian, and he's a damn good one. Rated at 76.9 by pff. He should be better than CJ-Garner Johnson and Nate Mcloud(dime back) were. The Broncos will have a tough test vs the Packers with Jalen Reed back, he is a great wr they sorely missed this year.

If you didn't know, the Packers have had the #1 WR target separation rate this year at 2.08. The dudes get open.

But it's not all doom n gloom for the Broncos D, there's a reason why teams continue to blitz them, and I'll explain in the next post.

I mentioned in a post last week, that you HAVE TO get pressure on Jordan Love to slow him down. And the best way is with your front 4.

Jordan Love's "Pressure Comp Percentage" is 41.9% and 35th in the league. His "Escape Rate" is 1.2%, or 33rd in the league. 

The reason why teams continue to blitz him is because they know the importance of pressuring him. They also know it's a risk because he can smoke you, but that's football sometimes. 

Jordan Love from a clean pocket has a 73.1% completion percentage, 5th best in the league. But that # drops down to 62.1% while being blitzed, 19th in the league. So there is a mathematical advantage to blitz him in that regard. But there's a big problem or "risk" involved with that, as Love has a 120.1 EPX rating(explosive plays) 5th best in the nfl. Also, most blitz packages involve man coverage where he is excellent at attacking, with wr's who seperate better than any other group.

The Broncos lead the league in pressures. They lead the league in sacks with 4.2 per game. How do they do it? The front 4.

Their d line has a 37.9% "no blitz" pressure rate, 5th best in the nfl. 

The Vikings are best in the league in no blitz pressure rate. When the Packers beat them 23-6, we saw an ass whooping on paper, but it was a poor showing from Jordan Love. And they hid it well. He attempted only 21 passes where they ran the ball 41 times. He had 14 completions for 139 yards(long of 18), no tds, no picks, 1 sack.

It was a game where the offense could afford to change their identity, downshift and idle while JJ Mcarthy got sacked 5 times, threw 2 interceptions and fumbled once. JJ posted a 35.2 qbr in that game. The Packers kicked 3 fg's and ran for two 1 yard scores.

The Eagles have the 3rd best no blitz pressure rate. The Packers scored only 7 points against em. Love was 20 of 36, 176 yards, no td's, no picks, and sacked 5 times.

The Browns have the 4th best no blitz pressure rate in the nfl, slightly above the Broncos. The Packers scored only 10 points in that game. Love was 18 for 25, 183 yards, 1 td, 1 pick, and sacked 5 times. They lost to a Joe Flacco led Browns who posted a 55.6 QBR that game.

Bo Nix can certainly be better than JJ Mcarthy. And I would think that he will be better than Flacco was in that game. Do you guys think that Bo Nix is better than Jalen Hurts currently?

Things to think about...

Correction, *with man coverage behind it

Let's do a quick comparison to the Broncos D line with the Bears D line(the unit they just faced at home)

Broncos Dline pressure rate #7(39.6%)

Broncos Dline no blitz pressure rate #5(37.9%)

Bears Dline pressure rate #31(29.7%)

Bears Dline no blitz pressure rate #30(26.9%)

For a better picture, let's look at the Packers O line and where they rank at blocking defensive linemen:

Packers Oline pressure rate allowed #25(30%)

Packers Oline no blitz pressure rate allowed #23(35.2%)

I will do the Broncos offense and tendencies vs the Packers defense tomorrow. 

I am by no means trying to sway anyone onto any side here, just looking up shit and sharing. 

I got a meeting at 7:30 I have to get to.

Good Luck