Wildcard Round

The Jacky line was a shocker. It just looks wrong. My first impulse was to load up on them, as will many so-called savvy bettors do. Betting the hottest team in the league as a home dog seems like a gift, right?

Then the question arose: why did the books, with all their knowledge and resources, make Buffalo a road fav? I don't know. One thing I do know is that the books have some pretty solid reasons for doing so. That's spooked me off a Jags play.

Not trying to criticize, just my .02 and a different point of view. 

Good luck with it,

RT2

Its because if you ask the random gambler on the street…. “Bills are way better than the jags”… thats it

Your boys held the Seahawks to 13 points.

The Eagles offense is nothing to write home about imo.

Do you think that Tatum Bethune is a huge loss?

@undermysac

13 points allowed was smoke and mirrors. That defense was undermanned and tired and it’s going to be exponentially worse this weekend.

Bethune is a decent player but it’s what is left behind him that is concerning. Dee Winters is hobbled and no slam dunk to play either. That potentially means 2 below replacement level linebackers. Eric Kendricks was a solid linebacker but is well past his heyday. Jalen Graham will be called up from practice squad if Winters is out. Not good…

San Fran can be proud of getting this close but I think it all ends very badly on Sunday and it’s not their fault. 

Eagles in a route…and then hammer whoever is playing the Eagles the following weekend. That’s my plan at least.

@BigNiner

 I like how you say, held them to 13 points, nope it doesn't count, like what??  No dude, they really did hold them to scoring only 13 points. Even if you count their 2 missed FG, still held a high power seahawks offense below their season average.  I like Saleh vs Patullo matchup here, even with inferior personnel, I believe Saleh will work something out to limit the eagles offense.  

Streaks always end at 8., You can look it up.Solid Record and Flawless job all Year. I Personally believe better odds hitting a Power Ball then,,the Bills losing against the Jags. Its the Bills time and I cant stand the team. Buffalo to the Superbowl and Back. James Cook monster games, 100yards from scrimmage every game best prop. 

@camby700

 Im happy you understand what's really going on. Let them bet against Buffalo. They are Handicapping the game a different way. We know Buffalo will Represent The AFC.

@skn02

 I actually never said “held them to 13 points.” That would make it sound like the Niners played good defense. Go rewatch the 3rd and 17. That was amazing defense and that will be representative of what you see on Sunday. Good luck betting on that defense. 

Good luck Sac.  

I bet the Eagles -3.5 (Betonline) and I generally bet against them if I bet their games at all. Their offense is not what I'm betting on to carry them but their defense is. I think the extra rest gets the starters a much needed boost and SF struggles to move the ball consistently. This is the best matchup for them aside from GB imho. Of course I could be wrong bc this team isn't the juggernaut of last year but I'm not betting my life savings.

@williamwallace

 Pretty much , bills past history makes them the fav. As a bills fan this team looks like garbage unless josh walks on water (and he might) they lose

@BigNiner

 even the best defensive teams have some defensive mishaps throughout the game, i mean Niners are not defensive juggernaut by any means but I think Saleh could dial something up to try to limit a very average offensive unit like the eagles.  Eagles may look superior defensively but they are only average or below average on their run defense.  We will see if Shanahan could exploit that.

Thanks for a Bills point of view. Got anything else other than a streak ending at 8, and how does the Bills run offense with Cook matchup with the Jags D?

This is true. And why I believe the line is where it is?

How's his foot? He was rested last week and lord knows he needed it. His yards per carry were really low last 2 games. I believe it was vs Cleveland that he got x rays at halftime but resumed play.

@BigNiner

 To counter...eagles offense is stuck in the mud...they might only score 10-14

Purdy thumb injury is huge. Especially if it's cold in philly sunday. Could have issues gripping the ball

Calling for 45 degrees in philly...9ers might catch a break

Patriots 1H -3(even) *1.50

There is -2.5 available at -118 also. I don't like juice and am fine with a push.

Bad o lines don't travel well, and the Bolts are one of them. A bunch of injuries, guys banged up, with a turnstile of combinations all year long.

They've allowed a 42.4% pressure rate this year which is the 2nd highest in the league. Allowing a 41.4% no blitz pressure rate which is 3rd highest in the league. 

It's reflective in their run game as well, as they have allowed only .9 yards before contact for their RB's, which is 3rd least in the league. Only the Raiders and Browns were worse.

The Patriots run D was magnificent to start the year. They didn't allow a 50 yard rusher until week 10. Then injuries hit their D line, and also LB Robert Spillane.

Here's an article from 2 weeks ago on their status for the playoffs.

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/milton-williams-khyiris-tonga-injury-updates/755913/

And another recent article about Spillane.

https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/patriots/2026/01/04/patriots-robert-spillane-update-recovery-process/88007562007/

I'm feeling that the Chargers will come to Foxboro rather 1 dimensional on offense this Sunday. 

Why the 1H?

The Chargers otr this year in the 1H are 3-5 su, PS=12, PA=12.87, avg margin -0.87.

If we cut that down to the East Coast, 0-3 su, PS=8.33, PA=13.33, avg margin -5. These were games against the Giants, Dolphins, and Jaguars. 

Now for the strength of schedule argument. I'm seeing the Pats with #32, super easy. As a matter of fact the 3rd easiest schedule in dvoa history(since 1978). The only 2 other teams with an easier schedule were the 1991 Bills, and 1999 Rams. Both made it to the SB, the Rams won theirs. Fwiw. The Chargers sos is #22. How much better can they be for facing that gauntlet?

When it comes to pythagorean wins, the Pats record is 12.5-4.5, and the Chargers are 9.3-7.7. So which team is actually worse than their real record relatively?

Chargers vs common opponents in the 1H:

3-2-1 su, PS=12.50, PA=9.66, avg margin +2.84

Patriots vs common opponents in the 1H:

5-1 su, PS=16, PA=10.83, avg margin +5.17

Patriots at home in the 1H:

8-1 su, PS=17.77, PA=8.77, avg margin +9

Just my opinion coming up here...

Drake Maye>Justin Herbert 

Josh McDaniels>Greg Roman

Terrell Williams

Vrabel vs Harbaugh...tie? Slight lean to Vrabel for his history with the Titans. Doing a whole lot with not much when he was there.

Good Luck 

A small part got cutt. Should of read:

Tyrell Williams<Jesse Minter

But arguments can be made that his time at Michigan was shrouded with cheating. 

Although Minter has done a fine job with the Chargers D in the NFL 

maybe… Maybe.. (LB) Kazir White helps San Francisco 49ers 

Good Luck this week

@undermysac

 As a Bills fan and family season ticket holder .... this is the worst matchup possible . Ive read all these posts from the Bills fans on here but no one mentions the Jags defensive schemes . All the plays the Bills like to run ..the Jags do better defensively .......bad bad bad matchup . Cook has to have the game of his life against this stingy D . I hope I am dead wrong   

@trainwreck66

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/best-play-on-sunday-103994089

I have to update my posted record, found a thread that I didn't have bookmarked. Knew I was on a good streak, but not that good.

22-10-3 +15.02 units

@undermysac

 As you know he will Get over 100 scrimmage yards. When he does Buffalo usually wins. Better QB ,RB and TE belongs to Buffalo. Best Secondary is Buffalo. With the addition of Judon along with Bosa I like the.Dline. I think you will be surprised by Buffalo