Week one picks are in.

Dolphins +3.5

Packers -1.5

Cardinals +10.5

All plays are for one unit.

@Sickness

 Kinda like your Cards play. Laying double digits in the NFL is risky business, especially in Week One. BOL 

@Boisestateand8

 I disagree, scary money don't make money.

we are talking week 1 only, plenty of 11 to 10 pt UDs have failed to cover in week 1

Packers is his best looking play imo

@FloatinPicks

I've been at this for 40 years, and I'll say it again; laying double digits in the NFL is risky, BUT, you do you and I'll do me. 

@Boisestateand8

 I don't know what 40 years has to do with week 1 in 2026, and every wager is risky, but i only speak facts backed up by research. It seems like you are running away from a great debate. i have no ego, i just love talking football. please lets have this conversation

Over the last 20 years in the NFL, Week One double digit favorites are just 7-14 ATS. Like I said, risky business. Also, I'm primarily a dog bettor, especially in the NFL. Couple of dogs I have my eye on in Week One are the Texans and Giants. 

@Boisestateand8

sorry Sir, but 20 years ago doesn't mean anything today, the landscape has changed so much.

here's a stat that is more relevant over the last 3 years home chalk of between 9-11 pts are 1-0 ATS.

i did not want to talk stats i wanted to talk football.

AZ is going with a new coach and a new QB vs JIM with a hella tight QB, final score Chargers 24-10

If you wanna go against a 20 year trend then knock yourself out. Good luck with your wager. 

In the early 90's double digit home favorites in week one went 5-2 ATS. Since 1997, they are 5-8-1 ATS.

here's a stat that is more relevant over the last 3 years home chalk of between 9-11 pts are 1-0 ATS.

??

AZ is going with a new coach and a new QB vs JIM with a hella tight QB, final score Chargers 24-10

Road dogs in week one with a first time NFL head coach facing a team with a coach that has been with their team for at least one season are 15-5 ATS s/'13. Fade the new head coach when they are road favorites in week one (see Nathaniel Hackett and the 2022 Broncos).

@FloatinPicks

 I didn't mean for my last post to sound snarky. We all have a common goal and that's to beat the books. Having said that, let's break this game down. Yes, the Cards have a new coach in Mike Lefleur, but he has an offensive pedigree and some weapons to work with like TE Trey McBride, WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, and a pair of RBs added in stud rookie Jeremiyah Love and free agent Tyler Allgeier. And the Cards QB isn't new. Jacoby Brissett started most of the season last year when Kyler Murray was injured. He's not an All Pro but he's capable and experienced. As for Arizona's defense........meh. 

The Chargers offensive line was a train wreck last season, but LT Rashawn Slater and RT Joe Alt are healthy after missing all or most of '25, and they added free agent Tyler Biadasz to start at center. They also get RB Omarion Hampton back from injury. But Jim Harbaugh is breaking in two new coordinators on offense and defense, and how that affects team chemistry is to be determined. 

Finally, since 2016 home favorites of 7.5 points or more in Week One of the NFL season are just 4-10 ATS. The Ravens had two of those wins with John Harbaugh and a third came during the 2020 COVID year. 

My preliminary numbers say Chargers -9 and the current line is -10.5, so I'm LEANING Arizona. If nothing else they have a shot of coming in through the back door. Cheers!

Correction - In the early 90's double digit home favorites in week one went 5-2 ATS. Since 1997, they are 5-12-1 ATS.

Can anyone name the QB of the Cardinals,  without resorting to Google ? 

Yeah, maybe that should be your first priority of business ... 

See post #12

Zona has been a great week 1 team as dogs. Past results speak clearly. I think the line is overinflated too. Chargers shouldnt be more than a TD but obviously last year's results heavily influence the line based on how awful they were down the stretch. Zona shows promise early then falls flat towards the end. That is their persona

I can name every week one starting quarterback for every team, and how they did, dating back to 1960. Can you?

Thanks Guys, and especially Mr. Boise, I have to go to work now. I just wanted to say thanks for the discussion. I know I'm the new guys here, so a little about me: I just want to take a few 100 extra dollars away from Vegas. my philosophy on sports wagering is to be on the right side of the number and let the chips fall where they may. By NO means, am I an NFL guru at all at all at all, but I do love football, I love the Saints ain't nobody better. I ain't gonna quit my day job. Laters

I stay away from teams that are dogs and will be a big dogs the following week. As is the case for the Cards in week 1. 

Since the Cards will face the Seahawks next week has me avoiding  this dog.

According the BetUs.com (i use this site for a reference only) The Cards will be +10 at home in week 2 vs Sea

Historically a terrible spot.  I reference the following weeks match ups and possible lines (such as this game) to avoid potentially bad pitfalls.  This game for the Cards qualifies as a pitfall.

Oh and a live dog to me (and according to the future week 2 lines are the 49ers ( week 2 line is -10.5 vs Miami)  yea Miami seemingly looks like trash but none the less dogs lined with a huge favorite line the following week are solid enough. 

49ers+3.5

Because of The Cards week 1 and 2 high lines finds the Cards in a 16-47 ATS Hostorical Situation.  2 high lines and finished last season with less than 4 wins. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by Boisestateand8]Quote Originally Posted by Rush51: Can anyone name the QB of the Cardinals,  without resorting to Google ?  Yeah, maybe that should be your first priority of business ... See post #12[/Quote]

My bad.. I should've read all the way through..

You summarized quite the well all the moving pieces this offseason.  I wonder just how much the coordinator changes for LAC will impact the team.  The most recent example of this was DET last year, and they struggled a bit, but they also didn't bring in a offensive guru like the Chargers are bringing in w Mike McDaniel as OC.  I think the defensive side of the ball for LAC is worth paying attention to.  Minter was a rock as DC, and could be sorely missed.  

Home division dogs Week 1 have been money historically. Vikings and Giants are in play. Good luck.

Home Division Dogs week 1 are 25-8 ATS since 2010.

Vikings will be a favorite by week 1 at all books imo. Vikings are already -1.5 at several books. 

Division home dogs between 1-2 points are 4-3 ATS s/'10.