Posted:
#1
Hey everyone ,
Format got messed up in the first post ...so let's try again ...
I will start a Trends & things thread for the regular season on a weekly basis in which posters can contribute with insightful information.
I will to continue to make a selection(s) based on trends
alone and this weekly pick will continue to be an underdog.
These proved to be successful last year and it makes sense to give it another run .
The general idea is to narrow down the strongest side based purely on trends while narrowing the field to Dogs only .
Underdog Trend picks last year ended up at 12-2-1 for pre-season and regular season .
These selections were only made through week 8 .
I will try to run these Underdog Trend picks throughout the entire year for 2008-2009
If 55 % or above is achieved , then the run continues to the following year .
If anything else , these can serve as useful information to some
viewers.
Do not follow these picks blindly , nor is there a point in arguing at least on this thread with comments such as :
the quarterback is hurt or the defensive line is much too strong ...
The idea on the Trends & Things thread is to argue over which is the superior trend or associating a trend with its significance it may have on a particular matchup .
In some cases a trend may point to a team's dominace over another which defies logic.
In another case , a trend may show how poorly a team performs after not running the ball well
In yet another case , a trend may reflect how well a team bounces back from a loss
It may point out how well a team performs on the road or against non-divisional opponents .
The simpler and more straightforward a trend is , the better it is IMHO
The more variables are introduced the more difficult it is to assess its merit .
Super systems are an example of too many variables involved, and I do not personally place as much value in them .
When you start talking about team A being 15-0 when playing a non-divisional opponent after a SU win of more than 10 points on back to back home games if opponent is coming off a SU & ATS loss prior game ....you lost me !
You get the point ...
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and this.....
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