Week 14 Props n Plays

What an awesome week 13. Went 9-4 I believe on regular plays plus hit some alt lines too. Will look to continue it this week. 

IND -5.5 +190 - I just dont believe in the Jags. They just sleepwalked through a game where they somehow beat Tennessee 25-3 but literally nothing happened. It was odd. Trevor Lawrence was okay passing the ball but not great, and the run game was nonexistent. Maybe they were looking ahead to this game? Etienne had 12 for 28 somehow and Tuten had 8 for 17. I am worried about Danny Dimes broken leg, but even with that and against the best defense in the league he was still decent. The Jags are not that. Indy should be able to pass well against Jax and that will open up JT to run wild. I like the odds of an Indy blowout here for +190

Good Luck this week Yanasaur

DAL/DET u54.5 - I dont normally mention any difference in bet sizes, mostly follows 1 unit sizing for everything and plus money bets are proportionate, for example +400 would be 1/4 unit typically. For this bet I am making it purely because its a very large total on a Thursday night with the full understanding they can easily go over still, so this is only a half unit. This bet is not based on any angle or read or statistic. Full disclaimer. This is not a typical play of mine.

Ross Dwelley TD +400 - Detroit TE filling in. I like this price a lot. If it was Laporta it would probably be +200-250 so this is good value. With Dallas defensive improvements I think TE will be the easiest and likeliest pathway to a TD if Detroit gets in the red zone and TEs have scored a decent amount against Dallas. Tiny tiny sprinkle on 1st TD +2000

Chase Brown o52.5 rush yds - Cincy has been running the ball better and this is a pretty low total vs this terrible Bills rush D. Chase and Higgins will be back also which will force Bills to play off and let more rushes have success. 

Darren Waller TD +300 - What a big number for Miamis preferred red zone target. If he doesnt run way out of bounds in the end zone last week and catches that TD is it still +300? Probably not. They can probably easily score with Achane but they like throwing to Waller for TDs. Tiny tiny sprinkle 2 TDs +2250

@ChOmP

I really like that Dallas/Detroit Under

Rome Odunze o35.5 rec yds - I mean this is a tiny number for Caleb's guy and teams have been able to get a decent pass game going against Green Bay. This number has typically been between 45-60 but Rome has had a couple down games although he's still seeing consistent targets. Teams have just taken him away more. But now they have Loveland, Burden, and this great run game to defend as well. I think things will open up enough for Rome to have a game, similar to how Green Bay shut down Gibbs but Jameson Williams was able to put together a strong game. Small sprinkle o64.5 rec yds +375

@ChOmP

 Another part of that I forgot to mention, this is basically a playoff game and do or die for both teams and I expect it to have that atmosphere so maybe more physical and defensive than people might think 

@Yanasaur

 The fact that st brown might not play they may have to run the ball more with sonic and Knuckles which may run clock I’m hoping they can slow down Dallas offensively.. you are definitely right on playoff environment type of game..losers chance of making the playoff is pretty much done in the playoff race falling behind..

@Yanasaur

 I like this one a lot this week. Lots of media attention that the bears passing offense isn't clicking well, Ben johnson even subtly calling out his QBs efficiency, so I think they'll try to get the best WR involved early and often and based on the line, Chicago may be playing catch-up this game.  What book do you use, draft Kings doesn't put out player props for the Sunday games this early for me.  By the time this line is posted on DK, it'll probably be in the high 30s, early 40s I bet.

^^^that post is regarding the odunze over. I tried quoting the post but for some reason it didn't.

Yea no worries I knew what you were talking about. Im on Hard Rock. They usually have Thurs Props out Monday and Sunday Props start hitting on Tuesday, but you get more added throughout the week. Mostly by Thursday they have all starters Props and then over the weekend you start getting some more obscure players

@thedon88

 Yea that's the tough thing w Props is they move pretty fast and not always available at every book. Im good with the play at anything under 40 and maybe up to 42 or 43.5. I like also that Ben Johnson came out this week and said the passing game needs to be better so maybe they try to get Rome involved early and often

Added:

Chris Godwin o39.5 rec yds - Like what we saw from Godwin this past week. Hes getting more involved and looks like he's getting comfortable and had a nice depth of target vs Arizona so ready to attack this number before it gets into the 40s and maybe 50s next week assuming he clears this again. 

Justin Jefferson TD +185 - I wanted to go over on his rec yds too, but 65.5 now is too high for me, I was hoping for something in the 50s. It opened at 63.5 and went the other way. But I feel confident with his TD prop at what is traditionally a high number for him and against a defense that gives up a lot of passing TDs. Think JJ can get a jump ball at least and come down down w it. 

Isaiah Bond o39.5 rec yds +400 - His regular number is only 7.5 but he typically gets a deep shot or nothing so we might as well go for the plus money payout bc he's not gonna have a lot of targets, but vs this Tennessee defense he has a good chance to get loose downfield and get a shot from Sanders. Bonus sprinkle o49.5 rec yds +600

Pat Bryant o25.5 rec yds - Another guy that is getting more involved in the passing game as the season has progressed. Hes a solid talent and had a lot of targets last game. Denver also hasn't been running particularly well so I like Bryant to get some opportunities here

@Yanasaur

 I always enjoy your props