Week 13 Props n Plays

Week 12 was a little frustrating. Still green, but was so close on some plays to having a huge green week. Hopefully this week will turn out better. Im liking the matchups. 

Isaiah Likely o23.5 rec yds - TE vs Cincy. This will be the third time betting Likely. If he fails us again he's dead to me. This is the best possible matchup and with Cincy being actually decent the wide outs Im expecting Likely to get some work. 

Javonte Williams o6.5 rec yds - not asking for a lot to get over this

PHI -6.5 - Chicago has been surviving games down to the last seconds against much lesser teams. This Philly defense is legit and they should be able to get their offense rolling against this Chicago defense that made Kenneth Gainwell look like Saquon Barkley. Maybe Saquon Barkley can look like Saquon Barkley on Friday 

Xavier Worthy o37.5 rec yds - Worthy should be able to get loose for some downfield shots against this Dallas secondary. 2 catches, maybe even 1 can put us over this. He had 8 targets last game. KC doesnt have much of a run game so I expect a lot of throwing again here. 

Xavier Worthy o64.5 rec yds sprinkle +300

Xavier Worthy TD +220 

@Yanasaur

 Javonte already up to 9.5 at DK. What the max number you'd take here?

Ouch that is rough. I can't advise it at that number, my max would be 7.5. My advice would be wait and bet it live hopefully if he doesnt get a catch in the first quarter it will go back down to 6.5 or less. 

Unfortunately these prop lines can change really quick. On these ones where you have a player that will probably see 3 or less targets you have to be tighter on the numbers so 3 yds makes a big difference vs a player like worthy who probably gets at least 5 so I would play it up to the mid 40s.

Good luck

Added:

Jonathan Taylor o15.5 rec yds - Houstons style of defense and excellent downfield coverage lead to some massive receiving lines for RBs. See Ty Johnson of the Bills on Thursday, plus many more

Devin Neal o32.5 rush yds - Alvin Kamara is not going to play Sunday. This is a very low number for a starting RB against Miami

Y 

Nice hits on Javonte and worthy 

@thedon88

 Thank you sir. Sucks we missed the +300 worthy o64.5 by only 4 yds but a good day so far!

@Yanasaur

BOL 

Added:

Just a small bet for fun, maybe we get lucky

ML Parlay - ARI/HOU/NYJ/CLE +3771

Jaleel McLaughlin TD +300 - He was in for the goal line carry over RJ Harvey last week and scored. Why? Who knows, he's tiny, but that's what they are doing so its a good price

Theo Johnson o3.5 receptions +105

Likely over. 

@JD5Terps

 Yes sir, another hit  wish I had alted him up easy money

Added: 

Tank Bigsby o12.5 rush yds - I like Philly to be able to rush effectively today vs a Bears team that already isn't great against the run and is missing key run stoppers on defense. I think Saquon has a great chance to go over too but I like Eagles to be in control of this game and Bigsby to get some more work. Saquon hasn't been great after his huge workload last year anyway. 

Bonus: Bigsby o24.5 rush +275, o39.5 +800

@Yanasaur

 Like the Bigsby play. Can you believe I played Keaton Mitchell again last night? Needed 21 to win, had 19 after the 18 yd TD run, got one more carry for no gain and was done for the night. Even in garbage time they handed off to Ali to finish the game. The Ravens just hate this guy lol. And I am an idiot for putting my money on him…again.

@brn2loslive2win

 Oh god lol doesnt surprise me. Yea after the other time I played him and how they kept running Henry for no reason I said na I'm not going there again. I think I bet bet Ken Walker receiving earlier in season too and after seeing the way they use him he's a no play no matter what too. I wish my book offered odds to not score a TD. My old offshore did. They list walker at between -120 - +120ish every week to score a TD and they literally will not allow him to score. Even on his drives they immediately pull him once they sniff the endzone. I dont know if they just hate him personally or if its some weird contract thing they are trying to not pay him but its legitimately odd and I want nothing to do with it

@Yanasaur

 Yep these books love to play games with what they offer us. Notice how the alt lines are always overs? Why can’t I bet alt unders on yardage? Why can’t I do No TD scorer/parlays? C0cksuckers just try and force you to bet what they want you to bet.

@brn2loslive2win

 Exactly. I just dont bet many unders bc the rules are designed to help the offense and its usually just easier for me to find advantages for overs vs unders. And I hate sitting there holding an under praying for the game to end. When you have an over its literally never dead. I really almost never bet a receiving under, but I will occasionally bet rushing unders when guys get to the 90 and up range like Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry

@Yanasaur

 I hear you. I’m just calling out the bs. Every over bet needs an under, every yes bet needs a no. There are tons of wr3/4s te2/3s that have a yardage and reception number on them every week. They also have an alt number up to let’s say 100+. Well there’s a lot of times that these players finish the game with 0 catches. So if the line is o/u 20.5 yds o/u 1.5 receptions, I should be able to alt bet u0.5 receptions or u10 yards at a nice + price. But they make the rules in their favor. Bastards! 

Not to mention the no td scorer. They’ll let you do a 15 leg td scorer parlay but not a no td scorer. They know they’d get killed on those so they don’t offer.

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes sir you are absolutely right I agree 100%