Turned the ship around..(132-37) last 2 weeks
WEEK 13:
Anchors:
1. NE -1
2. TEN under 48
Satellites:
1. CAR +16.5
2. MIN +16.5
3. HOU +11
4. DALL under 59
5. BAL under 58
6. ARZ under 51.5
7. SEA under 48
8. SF under 47
9. NO over 35
10. LV over 34.5
11. LAR over 39.5
12. ATL over 33
13. WAS +13
14. NO +12.5
15. BAL -.5
16. GB +9
17. LV +16.5
more later.......................................................gl
Good week, congrats on getting back to even. BUT
I still question the method. With tonight's anchor game to play you've gone 2-0 on anchors and 17-5 on plays. 17-5 is a 77% strike rate, but at -125 that means that you win 8.5 units for every anchor you get right, but -22 units for every one you get wrong. So, if NE wins tonight, you've had a great week, plus-25 units overall. If NE doesn't cover, you finish at minus-five units for your 19-6 week.
Earlier in the season you dug yourself a huge hole when your anchors (all or most) lost. I've been trying to think of an alternative. Simply matching 25 or 30 teasers with each other, when you're hitting close to 80 percent, has to be better than risking a 0-80 week, no?
The math goes like this...hitting 80 percent means you go 25-5. Assuming that the five losers all match with five winners (two losers matching would be better), you lose five pairs (ten of the 30 picks), but get 10 pairs correct. That's a plus-five week.
For anyone who's curious, matching games at random into two-team teasers, you have to hit 67 percent on your picks to profit, rather than 53.4 percent on straight -110 bets. Maybe jowchoo's method (taking advantage of inflated lines and adding points through a teaser) is the best way to profit, I don't know. But the threshold for success is very high.
Thanks for your post.
First, My blunder in the first half of this season was epic.It was the biggest hole I dug for my self in over a decade.
My success has been in capturing bloated lines due to recency bias and over reactions by the books, this is
regression positioning, a contrarian style. Now marrying this with insurance teaser points has been golden for a LONG TIME.
My average juice this year is -116 (betonline). Additionally not all teaser values are the same,my recent success is regression
valued. lesson learned have patients early on before regression data is in. I only started posting this because the books caught on
and raised the vig,so fuck em.Sharps have made bank,believe me and with line shopping so can you!
Established in 1995,
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