Below are some thoughts on some player props. They are no particular order. My top two are DeVito and Henry overs.
Travis Kelce OVER 68.5 yards
He hasn’t topped this in 3 games but now he faces the Raiders. Vegas allows the 5th most TE production the past 2 months. In 10 career games against the Raiders, with Mahomes as his QB, Kelce averages 9 targets and 87 yards…
Joe Mixon UNDER 67.5 rush yards
He’s only topped this once in the past month. Now Mixon has faces the Steelers who allow the 10th fewest rushing yards the past month. Plus Mixon doesn’t have Joe Burrow. In Mixon’s career as an underdog without Burrow he averages 59 yards…
Justin Fields OVER 16.5 completions
He returned last week and looked fully healthy rushing for over 100+ yards. Fields has hit 16+ completions in 4 of his 6 healthy games and now faces a struggling Vikings secondary. Minnesota allows the 3rd most QB completions this season at 24.5 per game. As a 3-point underdog, expect Fields to throw more & attack this secondary…
Tommy DeVito OVER 14.5 rush yards
He’s over this in 2 of his last 3 games. He’ll have a tough matchup as he takes on Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Historically, rookie QBs struggle in this matchup. When DeVito has struggled passing this season, he relies on his legs more. In Week 10 against Dallas, he ran 7 times for 41 yards. Expect DeVito to take off and run when confused by Bill Belichicks defensive schemes…
Bijan Robinson OVER 54.5 rush yards
He’s coming out of the bye week but don’t forget what happened the last time we saw him. Bijan played a season-high 80% of the snaps leading to a season-high 22 carries. Bijan continues to average over 5 yards per touch this season so we just need 10-12 carries here. Expect that to happen against a banged-up Saints defense…
Lamar Jackson OVER 19.5 completions
He’s without Mark Andrews but still has strong options in Zay Flowers and Odell. Lamar also has a strong matchup against the Chargers. LA has the worst secondary the past month & allowed Jordan Love to throw for a career-high 322 yards last week. Expect Lamar to take advantage of this secondary for 20+ completions…
Mike Evans OVER 61.5 yards
He’s coming off a team-high 12 target game. Evans now ranks 10th in WR usage this season. He’s over 61 yards in 2 of his last 3 games. And he should’ve been over this last week but Baker underthrew him twice. Evans will face a Colts secondary that struggles against big outside receivers…
Baker Mayfield OVER 240.5 yards
He’s averaging 260 yards the last 6 weeks. The Bucs have mostly abandoned their inefficient run game and instead have gotten RB Rachaad White more involved as a receiver. This has led to easy check down yards for Baker. This week Mayfield will face a Colts defense that allows receiving production to opposing RBs…
Gardner Minshew OVER 0.5 INTs
He has the 5th most interceptable passes this season and he’s thrown 6 INTs in his last 5 games. This week he faces an improving Buccaneers pass rush. Against above average pass rushes, Minshew averages 1 INT…
Perry OVER 22.5 yards
Michael Thomas is on IR and Perry will take his place in the offense. In Week 10, Perry led the Saints WRs in snaps & routes run. This led to a 38-yard performance. The Saints likely spent the bye week getting Perry more involved in the offense. Expect him to clear this number in Week 12
Derrick Henry O 69 Yards
CAR allows 130+ rushing yards per game in 2023. In games where the Titans are winning / neutral they run at an INSANE rate. In ALL games where Henry has 17+ carries he has 75+ yards.
CAR Allows 30.2 rushing ATTEMPTS per game. Even though CAR knows teams will run on them they still allow 4.6 ypc
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