Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Wuss!!! Stay hot, bro.
Mr Dish.
Tennessee just dropped to +2.5 +100. It's a quirky rivalry and 90-95% of the time in a 2.5 game I go with ML. Idk though. Strange sloppy young teams. Plus the 35 yard extra point now that it's cooling off and weather is becoming an issue.....one missed XP in 1st quarter sets the stage for an odd scoring game.
So I split my bet. 1/2 unit on Tenn +2.5 +100. 1/2 unit on Tennessee +130 ML.
FINAL CARD:
- Tennessee +2.5 +100(1/2 unit).
- Tennessee ML +130(1/2 unit).
- Dallas PK.
- Philly -5.5.
- Atlanta -5.5.
- Green Bay ML +100.
Some stuff came up tonight, and I know I have a really busy day at work tomorrow, so I might not be able to get back to give my reasoning for taking Tennessee. It's actually a fade on Jacksonville and my main reasoning is probably pretty stupid, but it's an angle I used to use back in 2005-2006 when I was still betting pro hoops.
Let's say you have a team like the Spurs. They go on an east coast 7 game 11 day road trip. On the road. On the grind. Hotel to hotel. Living a "different" life than the typical home stand being local with your family and friends and whatever. Go on that road trip. Grind out a respectable 4-3 or 5-2 record. Now come home finally and get a day to relax. I always felt guys would kind of take it easy. Bang the wife, single guys got their groupies or mistresses. Family men go out of their way to spend some extra time with their kids. Idk, I always thought first game at home was one where good home teams usually laying chalk come out a bit....flat. I used to do 1st half bets especially and it was a winning angle if you used it with the right teams in the right spots.
Now I know football a COMPLETELY different sport. Different game, different schedule, different routines, but still.....I don't think Jacksonville has had a home game in at least 4-5 weeks on the calendar. I know they had a bye, but it was off the London game and I gotta think guys hung around a few days, long trip threw guys off. But a strange schedule hiccup had them on the road for way too long.
Finally there's a home game on their schedule. I'm thinking they settle in a bit knowing no travel is necessary, get into their home life routines after a month plus. And maybe they come out a bit flat.
Couple that with the fact that I believe Jacksonville earned the respect of bettors and the oddsmakers the last few weeks. I looked the games up before but I already forgot them, but I know they surprised Buffalo SU in London. They surprised and beat Baltimore straight up. IMO, I thought they whooped on and deserved to beat the Jets SU(they covered). Earlier in the season, lost a tough one to both TB and Indy in close games.
Anyway, the perception of this team is way up and their play on this road trip of sorts, changed this game from Tennessee opening at -3 to Jax -3(and now 2.5). Perfect spot to take a shot getting points(or ML) in a game I believe that Jax comes out flat.
Also, I think Tennessee has a scrappy little defense and especially pass D, I can see them forcing Bortles the Pk6 machine into making some costly mistakes. Also Jax is quietly a very good run stopping team. I don't think Tenn is playing on running into their strength, and don't really have to run. I think the rookie will be able to shred their awful awful vanilla pass defense as long as they can protect him and give him time to throw.
All in all, like Tenn and split my bet ML and +2.5 +100.
Good luck to all. I'll be back Friday or Saturday with my thoughts on the other 3 games I locked up, and interested in hearing what other guys think about this weekend on a whole.
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