Week 11 winners.

Looking into Tennessee +3 in the TNF game, but it's -120 right now. I'll wait till that juice drops and if it drops to 2.5 or 2, I'll hit them ML. 

Disgusted over last Sunday. Swept the board on Saturday in college, and was thinking I could really have a killer weekend overall. My system gives me Detroit. Because I didn't like the situational setup of that game, I pushed to take another game that was CLOSE to being a system play, but not quite. Wound up playing both for 1/2 unit instead of Detroit for 1 unit and I split. Then I cashed nice on Giants +7.5, but left that game feeling angry and disappointed that they didn't cash ML(decent amount at +290). And the biggest thing I'm annoyed at....it was a small card. Nothing really going on at 1pm and I passed on TB who I loved and it would have felt GREAT to pull that win the way it happened to end. Instead I did an undisciplined garbage teaser that lost. 

So another even steven Sunday. Like I was saying last week, 10 weeks and 0 losing week so I shouldn't complain, but again I felt like I was close to a really nice week and just didn't get there. Couple weeks prior happened to be bad beats, this week happened to be bad BETTING by me and only me. 

I'll be back later in the week with my thoughts, but for now: 

- Dallas PK

- Tennessee(waiting for +3 with regular juice or possibly ML if line drops; I don't want to pay -120 for them). 

Looking forward to your plays this week. Honestly I don't see many games of interest except like 2 or 3 since I don't ever bet on games that involve a Pickem. An old wise one that taught me many of things I know always said stay away from a Pickem and more importantly stay away from games that the line goes from one team through the Pickem to the other side. A lot of times you can get a nice play the following week tho based on the result of the game that had he number cross over...

i put like 5$ on it for 500 something... sick to my stomach they lost... horrible coaching... so many chances to end the fckin game

Yea man, so close to nailing that Giant game. Not even the money, at work and with friends thru texts, I was telling EVERYONE the Giants were gonna club the Pats! Lol ego! 

Looking forward to what you have up your sleeve this week as well. 

As for the titans, they were just outclassed against the Panthers. The Panthers were in a GIANT let down spot, but it lookes like river boat ron has them hell bent on homefield adv for the play-offs. Titans were w/ out their top WR.

I feel like backing the Titans for tnf

If Dallas doesn't win this week will they win at all this year?

BOL GLYDE

 With the exception of hitting Dallas at a PK this morning, I haven't locked anything up yet, but I think I have my card for the week pretty much drawn up already in my mind. No real numbers crunching, my turnover system is retired for the season so nothing there......just sort of gut instinct stuff and the only thing is WHEN I'm gonna hit these games. And even that isn't too strategic. There's a couple teams that are -6 and the decision is: 

1.  Do I lock them up at -6 to avoid it clicking to -6.5 or -7. 

2.  Do I sit back and hope it drops off the wasteland numbers of 5.5, 5, and 4.5 and can I get -4 or less(ala KC last week). 

Okay, I played Dallas already. I actually texted my buddy about that game as he was playing Miami +5.5 for 20 points(the max) in his pickem pool and he wanted my thoughts on that game. I was stoned and fired off a long text on why I bet Dallas. It's a text where it was done off the top of my head and riddled with typos, but I'm thinking if I can find that text and it isn't too riddled with incorrect info from going off the top of my head or filled with typos, I can save myself 15 minutes and just copy and paste that. I'll look for that after I finish this post. 

Tennessee I mentioned I was gonna be on +3. As of now, it's +3 -117 so it's moving in the right way. I would like an honest -110 before I lock it up. If it does click to +2.5 or lower....ill take a look at what the ML looks like, and probably play Tenn ML over +2.5.....although this is a matchup that stinks of a strange 24-22 final. So maybe I do take the points. I have a strange angle for my fade of Jax that I will break down later in the week. It's a weird almost stupid angle, and I'm interested in what you guys think. 

Falcons are -6(-105) right now. Decision will be to hit it with the reduced juice, or hope it drops. Like I said before, anything over -4 in this spot is pretty much not worth the risk of it hopping to -7 if I snooze and let my guard down. Even the risk of -6.5 is worse than the reward of waiting and waiting for -5. 

Eagles are -6 right now over TB. Same as Atlanta. Should I lock it up and relax and forget about the game, or hope for the rare drop to something like -3.5 or -4? 

Green Bay +1. If I lock it up now at -1 or maybe ML -105, could it go up to 2.5 or 3? Maybe. I'm guessing it flips the other way and closes at GB -2.5 in the end. Either way, not a huge deal however it goes. 

I'll be back before Thursday with my thoughts on Tennessee and if I start locking up these games as I see fit. Outside of a christening early Sunday morning, I have NOTHING to do this weekend. Wife and stepkids are off doing a family thing most of this weekend(I love them to death but it's soooooo nice to have Veterans Day AND now Friday and most Saturday to myself). Me me me me me!! I will be smoking a new batch of weed I scored called White Cookies. I have a few percocets I've been sitting on a few weeks that I was gonna take on the Thanksgiving Day 4 day weekend, but Friday and Saturday might be the time to take them! Percs, cookies, call of Duty, Rise of Tomb Raider, East of Eden, college football, Batman #45 and 46, Lazarus #20, naps, laying around in my boxers, etc etc etc. 

So I'll be back to break down all of my 5 probable plays. Bit of a chalky square card now that I'm looking at it, and it's not that I'm trying to go the opposite of last week where I think 12 of 14 dogs covered, but just the way things shook out. Speaking of last week....all week I talked about how it was gonna be a dog dog dog week, and of course I found a way that out ot my 3 dog plays....I found a way to bet 1 of the 2 dogs that lost!!! And my ML play of the week....heartbreaking loss!! Giants had that game! 

Real quick college. Peeking at the card, I didn't like ANY games at all at first glance. While I do take college seriously(I'm not a guy who bets just for action or to bet just for the sake of betting), outside of bowl games, I'm always weaker in college than the pros, so all college plays are only 1/2 unit plays. That said, I've been murdering college football this year. I want to say I'm something like 22-7 so far, and 5 of those losses were on this one hideous 0-5 day about a month ago. I was just bragging to a couple buddies how I started the season an insane 13-0. Usually college, I'll start looking at the card and breaking down games Friday night and then really early Saturday morning. Kind of undisciplined stuff where I'll look for one noon game, one 3:30 game, one primetime game, so depending on what I'm up to that day with the family, I know whenever I can sit down and watch a game, I know at least one of my games will be live. Then I'll look for TV games only. Undisciplined stuff and why I only bet 1/2 a unit a game in college. 

Don't get me wrong, I stay on top of things and I'm not just throwing darts at a board picking these games, but it is sort of amateur how I go about college. Stuff I would NEVER suggest to someone who is learning the game and serious about MAKING MONEY. But anyway, I started the season 2-0 opening week, then a 3-0 week, then an insane 5-0 week where I had every bounce go my way, then another 3-0 week, etc etc. So now I have some college SWAG. I'm telling my buddies "damn I'm on fire in college!" For the first time all year, instead of taking a peek on Friday night, then doing some research early Saturday breaking down the X and O's of games, narrowing it to 3-4 games on "tv," and spread through the day.....I'm a capping machine that week.  13-0. 13-0. I'm on fire. 13-0. 13-0. Breaking down games Monday morning. Watching lines. Popping into Covers college forum. Throwing my 2 cents around. And POOF!! Three of the 5 games, my teams absolutely got spanked. The other two games were HORRIBLE beats and just like that, I was taken down to earth. My good buddy saw I was on fire and be tailed me and took a beating and I just felt awful. But I bounced back and feeling confident again. I don't post college as I don't feel I'm doing the work necessary to warrant me making my plays public. If ONE guy appreciates my posts, and tails me, just one guy....he doesn't deserve to get half-a$$ plays from me. NFL I back myself 100%, but college....plus as I don't follow college like a nut the way I do the NFL, I don't know the names of players like I do the NFL. I don't know the little things necessary to even have a small couple of paragraph write-up. So while my NFL stuff is 98% off the top of my head, it would take me FOREVER to stop every 20 seconds and fact check any stats I throw out there, or names of players etc etc. Also, I don't want to be the guy bragging about my wonderful 22-7 record, and then the week I post college plays, I drop an 0-5 week like last month. 

Oh geez, my message was too long, so I tried to shave off a bunch and continue it in this post, but somehow it got screwed up!!! I got a small piece at the very end that pasted so now I gotta go back to my last post, see where I left off, and try to connect the dots. 

Edit: ahh man, it looks like some was chopped off both at the beginning AND end. Directly below here I'm gonna pick it up mid sentence and then try to finish it off. SMFH. 

Ok here's where it stopped and I'm gonna QUICKLY finish it off over what WAS a couple more paragraph breakdown of the game. 

......coupled with my original thoughts for the game which was IMO the worst team in all of college football playing a squad who is pretty bad at 2-7 or 2-8, BUT they were COMPETITIVE in playing some good football teams. Game should have been -7, but was only -3. So rather than pass, I'm gonna follow Scalabrine's lead and possibly my only college play this weekend is gonna be SMU -3. 

Fellas, I truly apologize....one for just being a babbling a$$ and rambling on and on and on(this weed is fantastic as I tiptoe onto my porch to stealth smoke and then chain smoke cigs as I write this nonsense). And two for screwing up my message and having it all clapped up. 

Alright, gotta call it a night. Gonna sneak into the bathroom, run the fan, and jerk off to a Nikki Benz video I had queued up from yesterday. Hopefully the kids aren't up as I tiptoe back inside and say "Wally, why your eyes so red?" " Wally, what was that long 2 foot cylinder thingee I just saw you hide in the back compartment of the barbecue grill that has been zipped up for the winter the last few weeks?" "Wally why are you sneaking into the bathroom with your laptop?" 

Btw, did you change your Cibcy pick to Housyon like we talked about?? I didn't bet myself, but I did lean pretty strongly on Houston like we talked about.....just....got home from work yesterday....I was bone tired. Knew I wasn't making it to 8:30 to watch the game. Line was 11/11.5 all week and then it was +10 rhe last time I looked at 6:45pm. Plus after Giants lost the way they did....was just burned out a bit end didn't want to take a nice Saturday, an even Steven Sunday, and shave off a unit on MNF as you know I hate betting prime time games unless it's a game that stood out to me as a capped all week

But Miami....you know me, I'll always give you my opinion on stuff. And you know it kills me to possibly talk u out of a winning play, or into a losing play. I know if you didn't respect my thoughts you wouldn't ask me, and I know you are as  stubborn than me and rarely let ANYONE talk you out of your pool picks or bets.......but it does hurt when I walk someone down the wrong path. And I know you aren't "this" guy where I can give u 4 winners out of 5, but you do a 5 team parlay and tell me I SUCK when the 5th game loses. Or the guy who gets my 4 picks. Ask me my "lock." I say I like them all equally and bet all games the same amount 98% of the year, and they still push for my best bet lock, and when I give it, I can go 3 for 4 but lose the "lock" game and I SUCK. Or give someone three four weeks of 3-1 plays, but then I go 1-2 and I SUCK. I know you aren't that guy, but I do still feel bad pounding u with a 17 minute text and maybe u switch to Dallas. Or you move Miami from a 20 point play to a 2 point low point pick......

Hit me up with your other leans. I like going off the cuff like this as helps get my thoughts into place, especially on games I'm not really feeling. Plus with me moving into 3rd in my own pool, it's time to focus more on all games

Glad to see a great capper on Dallas with me! Let's cash!  

As for the lines being too good to be true in the three games you mentioned....I set KC -3, Oakland -2.5, and Denver -3 so I didn't see it much different than the oddsmakers in those particular games. I believe Bears money rolled in and they are actually small favorites right now, but I believe the Broncos opened up at -2 before the sharp early action moved it. I don't have a strong lean either way in those games....maybe Oakland a slight lean as Detroit's o-line and running game isn't really built to take advantage of the Raider's biggest weakness which IMO is playing power football and cramming it down their throats off tackle. Denver....gonna need a game or two to see just how the team plays with Ortweiler, if manning even sits out. KC....I don't know WHAT to make of this team. Originally I thought they were gonna be a scrappy 7-9/8-8 kind of team where if you put a decent QB on them and they could be a 10-11 win team. They came out to start the season AWFUL and even a game they dominated Denver on national tv....they found a way to lose. Yet the books still gave them ultimate respect when it came to their lines, and now they look like a dangerous team suddenly. So I don't know what to make of them, and I'm interested in how they make the long trip to So Cal and how they handle and gameplan a Charger team that they SHOULD be able to run through like Swiss cheese. 

GL man, looking forward to your thread for the week and your thoughts and insight. 

Sagon, I think Sanchez is the better QB than Bradford and he filled in admirably when Foles was hurt. Another year in Kelly's system, another year of experience and learning the offense. Honestly, I think Philly is a MUCH better team than their .500 record and play has shown, and while on paper, Bradford is perfect to run that offense, and he's had flashes of brilliance, overall IMO, he's been holding back this team. I might be in the minority, but I believe that Sanchez is a guy who can lead this team to a nice run and even win a playoff game or two, maybe get to the SB if they can get hot at the right time and catch a favorable set of opponents in the playoffs. 

TB I like the squad. I like Winston and I think he's gonna grow into a franchise QB. I think they have a decent line, some decent guys at the skill positions, and a defense that is a good draft or two(and FA) from being really good and just overall a franchise on the way up....this isn't their game though. I think Sanchez leads them to a rout. 

Thanks man, I appreciate that. I hope to see you pop in and bring your thoughts and plays. 

Anyway, on cue, dude popped in to say what's up and dropped his one play he really liked on the week. And as a small dog, they won by 40. 

Final card: 

- Atlanta -5.5

- Dallas PK

- Philly -5.5

- GB ML +100

Waiting on Tennessee still. Hoping to get a straight 3 as its -117 right now. If it floats to 2.5 will have to decide on whether I go +2.5 or +130 or so.....will post when things fall into play. 

Before Sunday, I will try to give a paragraph why I'm behind each of my plays. 

GL to all. 

Mr Dish. 

Also, I think Tennessee has a scrappy little defense and especially pass D, I can see them forcing Bortles the Pk6 machine into making some costly mistakes. Also Jax is quietly a very good run stopping team. I don't think Tenn is playing on running into their strength, and don't really have to run. I think the rookie will be able to shred their awful awful vanilla pass defense as long as they can protect him and give him time to throw. 

All in all, like Tenn and split my bet ML and +2.5 +100. 

Good luck to all. I'll be back Friday or Saturday with my thoughts on the other 3 games I locked up, and interested in hearing what other guys think about this weekend on a whole.