Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL week 1

Arizona at San Francisco Trends OUT >>>  conflicting trends 

 

example :

Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.

49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC West.

for those of you considering the OVER >>

 

 

    Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games as a favorite.

Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall

Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

 

UNDERS have hit at a  clip of 31-13 ( 70.4 % ) when ....

total line is  <= 35   and   >= 45

(so 35 or less and 45 or more )

 

current line : o/u ......45.5

Going back to underdog trend pick>>

what I have left >>>

 

 

Chiefs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog

 

DEN are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

 BUF are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games

 DEN is 0-5 ATS last 5 games vs AFC.  

BUF are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs the AFC.

 

Rams are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite. Panthers are 4-0 ATS vs Rams last 4 meetings

 

Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 1.

Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Giants are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.

Giants are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Road Underdogs  (-3.5 to –6.5) are 24-12 last 10 seasons

qualifiers : on my group :

NY Giants

adding .

.that Home favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 19-6 ATS (76.0%) in Week 1 since ‘97

 

Teams that follow in this category >>>

Houston -3, Minnesota –3, Oakland –2.5, Cincinnati -3

 

This would allow me to eliminate Kansas City and Minnesota  ...leaving us >>>

 

 

 

down to 3

 

 

so ( overall ) trend wise ...what looks good so far >>>

 

New England

Miami-Washington UNDER

San Diego

NYGiants

 

Great work RF!

 

 

Not contributing to the trends, but I am enjoying the info!

 

Of the 3 dogs, I like the HOME DOG the best for week 1.

 

May have to buy the hook, just to be safe though...

 

 

backing up the Carolina Panthers  as the underdog trend pick of the week is >>>

 

Rams are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite.

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Panthers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Hi Roberto,

 

After the last one that came down to the last 8 seconds, I'll need about a month to recuperate.

 

Looking at the Miami-Washington UNDER ----I'm a Miami fan so reader BEWARE----my thought is this, Cam Cameron is Miami's first offensive minded coach.  He seems more focused on putting points on the board than grinding the clock down aka ball control.  I just don't have too much faith in the Dolphins defense either.  Without the ball control offense and a low scoring offense how good would the defense really have been , , ,  Seems like at crunch time the defense would roll out the red carpet for the other team to score.  Lastly, Saban didn't seem like much of a coach.  Was it the Giants who changed play callers and suddently the offense took off?  Anyway, from what little I saw Cameron seems creative when it comes to play calling . . .

 

Good Luck this weekend! 

from Kramer ...in Cappers mall >>>>>

 

Week One Trends : ...

---

 

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

The SU winner in this series is 22-2 ATS.
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last six divisional encounters.
The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Tennessee is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
The Titans have produced 14 overs and 3 unders in their last 17 games.

Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 2000.
The Jaguars are 12-4-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games.
Jacksonville has produced 6 overs and 3 unders in their last nine home games.
The Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1999.
Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
Jacksonville is 14-8-2 ATS their last 24 home games.

Titans outscored 77-20 last 2 trips here

 

****************************************************************

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams

Carolina has produced 5 overs and 1 under when visiting NFC West opponents.
The Panthers have fashioned a record of 1 over and 10 unders in their first game of the season, since 1996.
Carolina is 4-0 L4 vs Rams
Carolina is 78-9 ATS when they win SU.
Carolina is 20-5 ATS its last 25 games as an underdog.
The Panthers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 road games.
Carolina is 3-7 ATS in their first game of the season.
Carolina: 1-7 ATS in the first month of the season




St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games.
The Rams have produced 6 overs, 3 unders and 1 push in their last 10 home games.
St. Louis is 3-9-1 ATS before a matchup with San Francisco.
The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with the Panthers.
St. Louis is 2-6-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
***************************************************************

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Green Bay.
The Eagles are 6-3 ATS in their first road game of the season, since 1998.
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS on the road before back-to-back home games.
The Eagles are 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games.
Philadelphia has produced 6 overs and 2 unders in their last eight road games.
Philadelphia: 24-10 ATS vs. NFC North opponents



Green Bay is 6-72 ATS when they lose SU.
The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1999.
Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 1999.
The Packers are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 non-divisional contests.
Green Bay has produced 4 overs, 8 unders and 1 push in their last 13 home games.
The Packers are 10-15 SU and 6-18-1 ATS the last three seasons at Lambeau Field.
The 2006 Bears were 13-4 "over" the total.

*******************************************************

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta has produced 6 overs and 17 unders and 1 push in the last three years on the road.
The Falcons are 13-5 ATS as an underdog in their first game of the season.
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups with Minnesota.
The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
Atlanta has produced 1 over and 8 unders in their last nine games.
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 2002.
The Vikings are 2-8 ATS before back-to-back road games.
Minnesota has produced 6 overs and 2 unders in their last eight games.
The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS when hosting non-divisional opponents.
Atlanta is 12-4 Under last 16 games while Vikings are 6-1 under
For a total of 18-5


Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins

Miami is 7-1 ATS when visiting NFC opponents.
The Dolphins are 13-4 ATS in their first road game of the season.
Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups with Washington.
The Dolphins have produced 5 overs and 10 unders in their last 15 games.
Miami is 7-3-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1996.
Miami is 9-23 ATS at home!
Miami is 13-4 ATS 1st road game
*****************************************************************

 

Washington is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 matchups with AFC opponents.
The Redskins are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games.
Washington has produced 5 overs and 15 unders in their last 20 home games vs. non-divisional opponents.
The Redskins are 10-4-1 ATS before a matchup with the Eagles.
Washington is 2-6-1 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
Washington is 30-19 "under" the total since Joe Gibbs arrived in 2004.
Washington is 19-8 under first two weeks of year

************************************************************


New England Patriots at New York Jets

New England has produced 6 overs and 12 unders in their last 18 divisional encounters.
The Patriots have produced 8 overs and 2 unders in their first game of the season, since 1997.
New England is 9-3-2 ATS as a favorite in their first game of the season.
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups with the Jets and 8-0 ATS in their last eight visits.
New England is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games.

The host in this series is 2-14 ATS.
New York is 10-20 ATS in their last 30 home games in September.
The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 1996.
New York has produced 9 overs, 3 unders and 1 push in their last 13 home games.
The Jets are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games.
The Jets are 6-18 ATS at home in Sept.
******************************************************************

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay has produced 7 overs and 16 unders on the road, since 2004.
The Buccaneers have produced 10 overs and 20 unders in their last 30 non-divisional encounters, since 2004.
Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
The Buccaneers are 1-4-2 ATS before a matchup with the Saints.
Tampa Bay is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games.
The Bucs are 31-18 "under" the total since 2004.



Seattle is 3-8 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1996.
The Seahawks are 12-6 ATS as a home favorite, since 2005.
Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 2003.
The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-divisional encounters.
Seattle is 7-2 ATS when hosting non-divisional opponents.
Seattle is 16-3 SU, 12-6 ATS at home the last two years.
***************************************************************

 

 

Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers

Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in September.
The Bears have produced 9 overs and 2 unders in their last11 non-divisional encounters.
Chicago has produced 2 overs and 10 unders in their last 12 visits to AFC teams.
The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 encounters with AFC opponents.
Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS before back-to-back home games. San Diego has produced 7 overs and 3 unders in their last 10 non-divisional encounters.
The Chargers are 9-3 ATS vs. NFC opponents, since 2004.

San Diego is 7-2 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago.
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
********************************************************

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders

Detroit has produced 7 overs and 2 unders in their last nine road games.
The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raiders.
Detroit is 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1997.
Detroit is 2-7 ATS before a matchup with Minnesota.
Detroits last BAY area win was San Fran 1975 ...

Oakland has produced 2 overs and 6 unders in their last eight home games.
The Raiders have a mark of 2 overs and 10 unders before a matchup with the Broncos.
Oakland is 7-2 ATS in their first game of the season when it's played at home.
The Raiders are 4-8 ATS as a home favorite, since 2003.
Oakland is 63-13 ATS when they win SU.
Oakland is 12-3 Under in home games

**************************************************************

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

New York has produced 9 overs, 1 under and 1 push in their last 11 road games.
The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 divisional encounters.
New York has produced 6 overs and 2 unders in their last eight divisional matchups.
The Giants are 6-2 ATS in their first road game of the season, since 1999.
New York is 6-3 ATS in their last nine situations as a road underdog.
Dallas is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional encounters.
The Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Giants.
Dallas is 6-3 ATS in their first home game of the season, since 1998.
The Cowboys have produced 2 overs, 8 unders and 1 push in their last 11 games hosting divisional opponents.
Dallas is 3-6 ATS when hosting divisional opponents. ***********************************************************

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Cincinnati.
The Ravens are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
The Ravens are 3-6 ATS when visiting divisional opponents.
Baltimore has produced 3 overs and 7 unders in their last 10 road games. The favorite in this series is 6-1 ATS.
Cincinnati is 8-21 ATS at home in September.
The Bengals are 7-15 ATS vs. divisional opponents in September.
Cincinnati is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 divisional encounters.
The Bengals have produced 8 overs, 4 unders and 1 push in their last 13 home games.
*****************************************************************

 

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Arizona has produced 18 overs and 6 unders in their last 24 road games, since 2004.
The Cardinals have produced 14 overs and 7 unders in their last 21 divisional encounters.
Arizona is 1-5 ATS vs. NFC opponents on Monday nights.
The Cardinals are 18-81 ATS when they lose SU.
Arizona is 2-7 ATS in their first game of the season, since 1998.
San Francisco is 16-5-1 ATS as a home favorite on Monday nights.
The 49ers are 10-3 ATS vs. divisional opponents on Monday nights.
San Francisco is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 divisional encounters.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS at home before back-to-back road games.
San Francisco has produced 3 overs and 6 unders in their last nine games.

Why you got to do my guys like that Roberto?? Why??

 

Just playin ......... Good info, Great Job!!

 

 

You know Shamrock ...

I would bet against my mom if I knew I could bet against

her and win ..

 

Agreed ..they have started slowly ...last few years.

 

This is perhaps the year where finally the expectations are not so high , and they might be able to overachieve ...or at least live up their potential ...

 

They lost last year's opener being favored by 4 over Atlanta ( L 20-6 )

Then they were favored by 7 over New Orleans the prior year ( L 23-20 )

Year before that ...they were favored by 3 over the packers ( L 24-14 )

In all three instances , Carolina was at home and favored over their opponent ....

 

Well,  as the trends point out ...the Panthers like being underdogs , and being on the road ....and that's precisely where we get them this year ....

 

 I like the underdog trend pick of the week chances !

 

Agreed ..they have started slowly ...last few years.

 

This is perhaps the year where finally the expectations are not so high , and they might be able to overachieve ...or at least live up their potential ...

 

They lost last year's opener being favored by 4 over Atlanta ( L 20-6 )

Then they were favored by 7 over New Orleans the prior year ( L 23-20 )

Year before that ...they were favored by 3 over the packers ( L 24-14 )

In all three instances , Carolina was at home and favored over their opponent ....

 

Well,  as the trends point out ...the Panthers like being underdogs , and being on the road ....and that's precisely where we get them this year ....

 

 I like the underdog trend pick of the week chances !

 

MAN THAT IS A LOT OF WORK!!!! , TANK YOU

Greatly appreciated RF.