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Trends & Things NFL Preseason 2007

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone,
 
This thread was featured last year and was well received by most.
The intent of this weekly topic is to generate trends & stats for the upcoming games in the NFL that may be of use in your handicapping .
I will also select a weekly trend pick to monitor its success or lack of it.
This year , that selection will always be an underdog.
 
Week one, that selection would have been Denver as the trends were extremely favorable . Denver was also an underdog.
 
Moving on :
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
  1. Home teams as favorites against better prior year teams are 51-77 (40%)
  2. Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)

 

  1. ( Week 2 )  , POOR prior season teams are 54-28 (66%) ATS against GOOD or AVERAGE and especially strong on the road , where they are 23-7 ( 77 % )  vs good/average home teams.
  • Good -- teams with a 10 or more wins in the prior regular season
  • Average -- teams with 7 to 9 wins
  • Poor -- teams with less than 7 wins
  1. In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 104-72 record (59%)
  2. Road teams with two or more wins against Home teams with exactly one win (39-15 for 73%)
  3. Home Dogs with 0 wins coming into a game are 38-19 (67%)
  4. Road favorites with 0 wins coming into a game are 14-29 (33%)

 

  1. ( Week 2 ) --Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22 (62%)

 

 
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Posted: #3
Glad to see this thread back in action Roberto.  Are those trends from preseason only?  If so, do you mind sharing your source - mine (SDB) only has regular season info.
 
As for trends, I started a thread on O/U trends in the preseason, but that was mainly to steer people away from taking lots of unders in Week 1 (which had been a trend the past 2 seasons - 23-7-2), but based on the lines available, I wanted to alert people that taking blind or more than average unders in preseason week 1 because of recent success would be a unwise move.
 
No real O/U trends in general that I noticed for week 2...
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
puffdawg
good to be here and nice to see you
 
I made a point of not bringing up other web sites here @ covers
Some of my information is subscriber based and other is public .
If I bring up info that is not substantiated by an official source...or I haven't had the time to verify it , I will make every effort to mention so .
( ie ... source being a poster here or in another forum )
 
The above trends are for preseason only...that is correct
 
Thanks for all input you provide ...
Best of luck this season as well !
 
 
 
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Posted: #5
nicely done RF, your info is second to none and appreciated by many...BOL this season to you as will always be curious as to how your piking 'em....
 
 
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Posted: #6
nicely done RF, your info is second to none and appreciated by many...BOL this season to you as will always be curious as to how your piking 'em....
 
 
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Posted: #7
APPRECIATED ROBERTO. VERY MUCH.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Friday August 17
Game : Tennessee @ New England
 
Trend : NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS @ Home in August games since 1993.
 
current line : New England - 5.5
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Looking back @ the Tennessee - New England game ,
keep in mind >>>
  1. ( Week 2 ) --Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22 (62%)

Other teams other than Tennessee  that qualify in this category week 2 are :

Atlanta , Minnesota , Houston, New Orleans , San Diego , and New York Giants

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #10
  BIG ROB
 
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Posted: #11
 
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
Thank You for all your help last year
You are a great handicapper
Look forward to a profitable year
 
cavy1
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Looking back @ the Tennessee - New England game ,
keep in mind >>>
  1. ( Week 2 ) --Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22 (62%)

Other teams other than Tennessee  that qualify in this category week 2 are :

Atlanta , Minnesota , Houston, New Orleans , San Diego , and New York Giants

 



How is SD a play????  They are favored....Other than that, nice work on the information..!
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Wizeguysports ...
 
You are correct .
 
San Diego may have opened as a one point dog
but across the board the Chargers are now favored.
That leaves Tennessee, Atlanta, Minnesota, Houston,
New Orleans, and the NY Giants .
 
Of these teams , New Orleans qualifies for the following :
 
Game : New Orleans @ Cincinnati
Saturday August 18
current line : New Orleans + 3
 
 
Home favorites against better prior year teams are 51-77 (40%)

In a game of winless sides, underdogs  are  104-72 record (59%)

( Week 2 ) >>> Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22  (62%)

 

 
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Posted: #15
Great stuff again Roberto, hope you take it to the man again this year.
 
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Posted: #16
hi roberto..
you must be a math wizard...
may ask whts your last year's nfl record...
 
goodluck.. love reading your thread
 
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Posted: #17
Hey R.
 
Good to see your post!
My first time back since the end of last years season.
I have seen the pre season stuff on t.v. and am looking forward to
another great season!!!
 
Just wanted to say hi and will talk to you again soon I am sure.
 
 
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Posted: #18
Trends are great conversation pieces......there are always usually two sides to a trend.

I will throw this out there...

play on any nfl preseason road dog (or pick) off a su home loss of 7>points as a favorite of -3 > vs, an opponent off a su road win...

since 1983 the ats record is 15-0

Play:  Minnesota


 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #19
Looks like a very interesting thread.  Thanks for posting and good luck this year!  Last year NE lost their first game of the preseason only to come back and win by 27 in week 2.
 
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Posted: #20
Thanks for the great information.
 
Captain
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Posted: #21
New Orleans will be the Underdog Trend Pick of the Week
 
Saturday August 18
Game : New Orleans @ Cincinnati
current line : New Orleans + 3.5 / 3
 
 
 
Home favorites against better prior year teams are 51-77 (40%)

In a game of winless sides, underdogs  are  104-72 record (59%)

( Week 2 ) >>> Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22  (62%)

 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by kwells68:

Trends are great conversation pieces......there are always usually two sides to a trend.

I will throw this out there...

play on any nfl preseason road dog (or pick) off a su home loss of 7>points as a favorite of -3 > vs, an opponent off a su road win...

since 1983 the ats record is 15-0

Play:  Minnesota

Minn lost by 3pts., Jets won at home
 
Veteran
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Posted: #23
u playin NE robert?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
great info.......
 
makes my 3 plays tonight look even better.
 
carolina
minny
tennessee*** love it
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
some totals talk...
from Lightin’ up the scoreboard in Week 2

Last year ( 2006 ) , the average total increased from 32.3 in Week 1 to 36.9 in Week 2.

In 2005, the average total jumped from 34.1 in Week 1 to 41 in Week 2.

 The year before ( 2004 ) saw the smallest increase but an increase nonetheless with the average total climbing from 33.6 to 35.

Finally, 2003 featured a jump of 31.3 points per game to 37.6 points per game.

That makes for an average increase of 4.8 points per game from Week 1 to Week 2 over the last four years.

The opening week of the preseason averaged 33.9 points per game but history suggests that the average total will jump to more than 38 points per game this weekend.

 

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