Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 2

"dogplaya..Robert"

 

Thanks very much. There really isn't much this week that looks good but i do think this game has some nice value for the Cards.

I found this from sports profit >>>

 

Over the last four seasons (2003-2006), Week 1 underdogs hit at 35 percent. Throwing out the two outlier seasons (last year it was 46 percent, and in 2003, 29 percent), you have a more realistic average of 32 percent, or 4.5 wins and 9.5 losses. That means last week was 1.5 games off that pace. Week 2 underdogs have been amazingly consistent – exactly 4 wins in each of the past four seasons and an average of 10 losses (29 percent). Week 3 saw an average of 3.5 wins and 9.25 losses (27 percent). The overall record in Weeks 1 through 3 was 49-113 (30 percent). So again, if this season holds to statistical form, we should see a correction of 36 percent over the next two weeks.


You may be thinking – that’s all well and good, but what do we actually DO on Sunday to make a profit based on this information. Since the chances are pretty good that underdogs will go approximately 9-16 over the next two weeks, you’ll want to jump on moneylines of +151 or higher (the break even point for 40 percent is +150). Just to be on the safe side, however, you should stack the deck in your favor and pick out a more profitable range.

Since you’ve made it this far, we’ve got one for you. Here’s our system of the week:


Weeks 2 and 3, NFL underdogs of +190 to +280 (home or away)


This group went a very profitable 14-19 (42 percent) in 2003-2006. A simple $100 wager on each of these games would’ve made you $1,390, or an average of $347.50 per season. Not too shabby for two weeks. And since – as we illustrated – underdogs are even more due over the next two weeks this season than in the past – this year's results could be even better. If next week winds up being a big one for this range (surpassing 42 percent), you'll want to stand down in Week 3. The correction will have already taken place, and Week 3 may average out in the wrong direction.


As of Tuesday night, it appears moneylines for the Browns, Titans, Texans, Dolphins, Chargers and Redskins COULD fall into that range this week, depending on which way the lines move. Of course you’ll want to use the lines on the day of the game to determine which team qualifies. It wouldn’t surprise us to see several of those teams win outright.

Must read thread. Thank you Roberto and all who post useful info.

 

The following overs look more enticing to me ....>>

 

Buff - Pitt OVER

Minn-Detroit  OVER

 

Roberto

 

Great info, thanks for all your effort. 

 

out of all these trends.. did u come up your final pick??

SD is looking good for me.

 

go! roberto!

there is now a 2nd thread to continue T&T's

I'm with you pepper, I'm on SD at +3.5, and I'm also on the Bengals -7.

 GL everybody !!