Posted:
#26
Frankthetank had some interesting trends:
Denver
Philly is 15-5 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.
DET is 12-4 ATS at home after scoring 28 or more points
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Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL Week 2
Denver
Philly is 15-5 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.
DET is 12-4 ATS at home after scoring 28 or more points
Posted:
#34
From two minute warning >>>>
Week Two
With only one game played, teams are in two groups: 1-0 and 0-1 records. With these two groups you have four permutations for the potential matchups. The following table shows how teams have done against the spread since 1992.
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Record |
Record |
vs the Spread |
Spread % |
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Analysis: The only thing to note in this table is that in a meeting of teams with 0-1 records the away team (presumably the dog in most cases) has covered at a high rate. Not that this constitutes a great deal of meaningful data, but based on this table, a few teams might be worth closer scrutiny here in 2007. Of the qualifying situational teams, we'll go with the Chiefs.
Favor: Kansas City +12
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Posted:
#36
Crewmember, give Roberto a break. He works hard and is trying to make his pick for the upcoming week. Stop rushing him and everyone else. The game is not until Sunday, its only Wednesday buddy. Just sit back and let all the cappers do what they gotta do! 
BOL This week Roberto, love your stats each week.
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Posted:
#37
Roberto,
The Atlanta Falcons + 10
fall into the 0-1 vs. 0-1 system &
NFC vs. AFC early season trend.
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Posted:
#38
HI Roberto
Aprreciate your hard work, been reading since last season and done well off your trends and picks, so time for me to pay back
I run a spread pool at work. The numbers might not be exact to the final lines because I sometimes have to guess a line as I issue them on Tuesday's. Also last year I took away the push by having every spread end in .5
Anyway here are the stats
Still a positvie result for the afc overall, with signinficant improvements in the 2nd half of the season again
AFC/NFC FROM 2005/2006 AND 2004/2005
05/06 04/05
WK 1 1/1 -
WK 2 2/2 1/3
WK 3 5/1 2/1
WK 4 1/2 1/0/1
WK 5 4/2 1/1
WK 6 2/2 3/1
WK 7 2/4 3/3
WK 8 2/2 2/1
WK 9 1/1 5/3
WK10 0/1 2/2
WK11 2/1 5/0/1
WK12 5/3 4/2
WK13 --- --
WK14 1/1 3/1
WK15 5/1 3/1
WK16 1/1 1/1
WK17 0/3 2/1/1
TOTAL 34/28 FOR 54.8% for 2005/06
TOTAL 38/21/3 FOR 61.3% FOR 2004/05
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Posted:
#42
Hello all. I don't post/comment often (simply due to lack of time in front of a computer), but I have been a "covers forum voyeur" over the past couple of years and found the game information/stats/write-ups to be invaluable.
I have massive respect for all the awesome cappers in here, the incredible knowledge flying around and the sharing of fabulous insight and information.
I must admit that some of my favorite reads are the incredibly humorous nut jobs that rear their head on occasion (i.e. "Mr. Bator, please post your picks ASAP. I need you to do all the work for me and give me some free picks since I can't even pick my underwear out of my ass without your help"........."C-mon, RF, it is Wednesday morning already and you have given me nothing to put my lunch money on..", etc.---absolutely hilarious). Some of the funniest shit ever resides in the covers forums.
Okay, enough of that, I popped in here for a reason. While capping some of the games this weekend (I don't like this weekend's card much at all, by the way) I found myself thinking that I cannot remember very many situations with multiple double-digit spreads in the same day/weekend. Many weeks there are none and occasionally a couple.....but double-digit spreads in basically 1/3 of the games (five games) this Sunday just really jumped out at me. So, it prompted me to go a little deeper and I figured RF's AWESOME Trends & Things thread would be the most appropriate place to share my findings.
Over the past 24 games in which the HOME team is favored by 10 or more, ONLY FIVE have covered the spread (with 6 of the huge dogs taking the moneyline). That is an
In addition, I could only find 1 week (since 2001) in which there were more than 3 games that apply and all home fav's covered. In other words, besides that one week (wk 13 of the 2005 season---3 games applied and all 3 home teams SMASHED their opponent), EVERY TIME that this situation existed in more than 2 games, at least one road dog pulled out the
Going back just a bit further........double-digit road dogs have covered 46 of the past 71 such games.........double-digit road dogs have covered 82 of the past 130 such games.
What does all of this mean? Hell, I don't know, I just found it very interesting. Again, I don't like this card very much, but if one was leaning towards one/some/all of these 5 double-digit dogs, this should hopefully make you feel even more comfortable locking it in.
Based on the above stats, I would honestly not be surprised at all to see at least 3 of them cover, with at least 1 winning the game outright. The degenerate in me is almost tempted to make a small (1/2 unit maybe) play on all the dog moneylines.
My leans would be in this order, with most appealing at the top:
BILLS +10 @ Steelers: (since I bleed Black & Gold, I very rarely play any side involving my Steelers but I know them VERY well and would never even consider laying 10 with them against anybody. While it was bizarre to not see the Cowher Scower on the sideline, it is obvious this team already has massive respect for Tomlin and he is a great fit for my team and has a similar defensive mind to tricky Dick and the scheme the Steelers have had effectiveness with in years past. They looked decent against the Browns, but who wouldn't. They typically do not run up the score---especially in games outside of their division----and play a smash mouth game and just want to run it down your throat when they are ahead, which they should be. Add that to the great trends for Buff in week 2's and the horrible trends for Pitt in week 2's and possibly a little extra motivation and "win this one for K.Everett" and I don't see a blowout here......maybe a 24-17 type game. As in any spread over 7, the back door cover is always a fear)
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Posted:
#43
I think I just talked myself into playing the Raiders and Jets...we shall see.
The only thing that I have locked in thus far is the Saints -3 (2 units). I only get in early if I fear the line will change against me during the week (which looks to be the case here as I see it at 3.5 most places. I will be surprised if it does not go to 4 or more by game time). I just cannot see opening the paper next Monday and viewing 0-2 as N.O. record. Saints were embarrassed (shredded in 2nd half) on national T.V. and they have realistic expectations of going deep into the playoffs with this crew now being together for a full year. They know the chances of that go down immensely if they fall to 0-2. Sean Payton is a great coach and is a fabulous game planner (mark my words, in 3-4 years from now we will be calling him a mastermind game planner with the ax’s and or’s based on who they are playing, schemes, etc.). They have playmakers and they have a ton of pride on that ballclub and you will see their best effort this weekend. That does not bode well for a team that flew across the country last week to get slapped around and go deaf in Seattle, then back across the country again to face a very talented team (could go toe to toe with many in the league in terms of skill positions) that is pissed off and has something to prove (to themselves as well).
Other LEANS I am looking into:
Raiders/Denver Under: There are a zillion trends favoring the under on both sides. Add to that what we saw from
Cowboys @ Dolphins +3.5: I like home dogs to begin with, but I think this one sets up nicely for the fish. If I play this game, I will play the moneyline as well. Boys are 6-12 as a road favorite on grass. The fish have not done great as a very small dog at home, but they are 6-3
I am also going to look closer at the Pats/Chargers under and Rams/Niners Under
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....wow, I just noticed that the middle of my writeup (was too long, so had to go into 3 posts) didn't get copied pasted, not sure what happened there. It is saved at work so I will put it in here tomorrow because it covers the other 4 double-digit spread games. 
Posted:
#50
Favor: Kansas City +12
[/Quote]
I know you've been doing very well, but I think you should re-consider the KC +12 because the only way they cover is if they get +24
Although KC and CHI are both 0-1 and the chart basically says you should take the away team in this case...but you must look at who they played the previous week. KC got blown out by houston (a potential 8-8 team) and chi barley lost to a potential superbowl team. Anyway, since this is a trend post, last season CHI always came back after a loss to smash their next opponent. I really believe if this line stays under 13 CHI is the play for sure.
the chart is going to read 16-35 after this game
anyway goodluck roberto
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