Interesting angle, and nice that the Mahomes game went the way the trend said. One thing that would make it a lot stronger is a comparison number.
6-2 straight-up only means something next to how often those same teams were expected to win those specific games. If they were coin flips, 6-2 or better happens about 15% of the time over 8 games. If they were, on average, around 65% to win going in, you'd see 6-2 or better about 43% of the time — i.e. nothing unusual at all. The 95% range on 6 of 8 is roughly 41% to 93%, so 8 games can't separate "QBs come back fine from an ACL" from "these were good teams".
A way to test it with data that already exists: pull the closing moneyline for each of the 8 games, convert each to a win probability, add them up, and compare that expected-wins number to the 6 actual wins. And if the goal is betting, the ATS record in those games is the one to look at, since the spread already prices in who the better team is. For scale, it takes something like 30 games to tell a 75% trend from a coin flip, and closer to 80 to tell it from a 60% baseline.
18+, none of this is betting advice.
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@OngCamOn
Interesting angle, and nice that the Mahomes game went the way the trend said. One thing that would make it a lot stronger is a comparison number.
6-2 straight-up only means something next to how often those same teams were expected to win those specific games. If they were coin flips, 6-2 or better happens about 15% of the time over 8 games. If they were, on average, around 65% to win going in, you'd see 6-2 or better about 43% of the time — i.e. nothing unusual at all. The 95% range on 6 of 8 is roughly 41% to 93%, so 8 games can't separate "QBs come back fine from an ACL" from "these were good teams".
A way to test it with data that already exists: pull the closing moneyline for each of the 8 games, convert each to a win probability, add them up, and compare that expected-wins number to the 6 actual wins. And if the goal is betting, the ATS record in those games is the one to look at, since the spread already prices in who the better team is. For scale, it takes something like 30 games to tell a 75% trend from a coin flip, and closer to 80 to tell it from a 60% baseline.
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