Carolina Panthers were +9.5 and have money being placed on them and the line has a bit of reverse movement from +9.5 to +10 +10.5
Carolina is 5-0 ATS after a loss
But without a strong defense to lean on with turnovers we may begin to see Carolina’s offensive true colors with a little bit more pressure on the offense (Brice young) to convert.. The Rams are very good on both sides of the ball..
Jaycee Horn is a massive part of this defense
Chandler Zavala (right guard) calf left the game
CB Jaycee horn left the game 6min left in the 3rd concussion with a concussion
LB claudin cherelus concussion left the game
DE A’shawn Robinson got banged up
CB Corey Thornton ankle left the game
Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Carolina Panthers were +9.5 and have money being placed on them and the line has a bit of reverse movement from +9.5 to +10 +10.5
Carolina is 5-0 ATS after a loss
But without a strong defense to lean on with turnovers we may begin to see Carolina’s offensive true colors with a little bit more pressure on the offense (Brice young) to convert.. The Rams are very good on both sides of the ball..
Jaycee Horn is a massive part of this defense
Chandler Zavala (right guard) calf left the game
CB Jaycee horn left the game 6min left in the 3rd concussion with a concussion
I dont see what's fishy about it. They are terrible with a QB that struggles to surpass 150 yds and facing what is probably the best team in the league that can seemingly score at will against most anyone
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I dont see what's fishy about it. They are terrible with a QB that struggles to surpass 150 yds and facing what is probably the best team in the league that can seemingly score at will against most anyone
You are right.. the line is correct the fishiness is meant on the reverse line movement and the money coming in for Carolina at a high spread.. perhaps I should have used a different thread title.. most of the time I am multitasking while doing this which is no excuse.. thanks for your input Yani Good Luck this week
too bad I can’t edit the thread title oh well
Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
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@Yanasaur
You are right.. the line is correct the fishiness is meant on the reverse line movement and the money coming in for Carolina at a high spread.. perhaps I should have used a different thread title.. most of the time I am multitasking while doing this which is no excuse.. thanks for your input Yani Good Luck this week
I suppose that sharp bettors are seeing the Rams coming off an impressive win 34-7 at home vs the Bucs.
Now travel way east for a noon kickoff, with AZ(divisional game), Detroit and the Seahawks on deck.
I suppose a let down is possible?
The Panthers are in the thick of it for a nfc south title, after this game they are on bye. They should give a strong effort.
It's that time of year when teams start throwing blows for trying to make the playoffs. Perhaps the standard lines that the oddsmakers open with don't account for it as much initially?
The Rams next 4 of their next 5 games will be on the road. Winners of 6 in a row, even for them this will be challenging.
Interesting matchup
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I suppose that sharp bettors are seeing the Rams coming off an impressive win 34-7 at home vs the Bucs.
Now travel way east for a noon kickoff, with AZ(divisional game), Detroit and the Seahawks on deck.
I suppose a let down is possible?
The Panthers are in the thick of it for a nfc south title, after this game they are on bye. They should give a strong effort.
It's that time of year when teams start throwing blows for trying to make the playoffs. Perhaps the standard lines that the oddsmakers open with don't account for it as much initially?
The Rams next 4 of their next 5 games will be on the road. Winners of 6 in a row, even for them this will be challenging.
you know money FOR SURE is coming in on carolina? idk what site you use for those numbers but i never trust them
In a game like this between these 2 teams in particular, you don't need any site to tell you where the real $ is, and where the public $ will be. The line movement alone tells us the story.
In my honest opinion
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Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd:
you know money FOR SURE is coming in on carolina? idk what site you use for those numbers but i never trust them
In a game like this between these 2 teams in particular, you don't need any site to tell you where the real $ is, and where the public $ will be. The line movement alone tells us the story.
Something I’ve noticed (or atleast think I’ve noticed?) in recent years is that any double digit dog is usually going to take money early in the week. Every week we see funny line movement. Sometimes it’s justified, sometimes it’s completely wrong.
Last week Tennessee took money early and it was a great call probably by a lot of sharp players. We also saw insane movement on Detroit after Winston was called the starter. Why? I have no idea. Winston is far and away the more experienced and dangerous qb than Dart. The most fascinating line movement of last week in my opinion, is the one that didn’t move. GB was a 6.5 point favorite all week. I kept asking myself who in the world is taking Minnesota on the road…so much that the oddsmakers would not move to -7??
Line movement is always interesting and sometimes what we would consider fishy. But if you used steam chasing as your entire betting strategy (not saying anyone actually is doing that) I think you’d be lucky to break even.
So back to Carolina. If they are actually taking money by some sharp players it’s no surprise. They’re a 10.5 point home dog and this is the NFL. Do I agree with it? No. Will I be surprised if the line closes at -13? No. Will I be surprised if Carolina wins outright? Definitely not.
I have personally made it a point for myself to get as much CLV as possible and use multiple sources to try and predict which way a line will move. I’ve gotten to be fairly good at it. To be honest, it hasn’t really helped me much at all. In my opinion, very late line movement tells me more than early movement. I don’t claim to be sharp or know any sharp players personally, but it seems to me that sharp players come in very early and also very very late.
Why did i go on this rant? I don’t know. Maybe to say that line movement sometimes seems fishy and it really means nothing. Sometimes lines move drastically in one direction and it’s completely wrong the entire time. GL everyone
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Something I’ve noticed (or atleast think I’ve noticed?) in recent years is that any double digit dog is usually going to take money early in the week. Every week we see funny line movement. Sometimes it’s justified, sometimes it’s completely wrong.
Last week Tennessee took money early and it was a great call probably by a lot of sharp players. We also saw insane movement on Detroit after Winston was called the starter. Why? I have no idea. Winston is far and away the more experienced and dangerous qb than Dart. The most fascinating line movement of last week in my opinion, is the one that didn’t move. GB was a 6.5 point favorite all week. I kept asking myself who in the world is taking Minnesota on the road…so much that the oddsmakers would not move to -7??
Line movement is always interesting and sometimes what we would consider fishy. But if you used steam chasing as your entire betting strategy (not saying anyone actually is doing that) I think you’d be lucky to break even.
So back to Carolina. If they are actually taking money by some sharp players it’s no surprise. They’re a 10.5 point home dog and this is the NFL. Do I agree with it? No. Will I be surprised if the line closes at -13? No. Will I be surprised if Carolina wins outright? Definitely not.
I have personally made it a point for myself to get as much CLV as possible and use multiple sources to try and predict which way a line will move. I’ve gotten to be fairly good at it. To be honest, it hasn’t really helped me much at all. In my opinion, very late line movement tells me more than early movement. I don’t claim to be sharp or know any sharp players personally, but it seems to me that sharp players come in very early and also very very late.
Why did i go on this rant? I don’t know. Maybe to say that line movement sometimes seems fishy and it really means nothing. Sometimes lines move drastically in one direction and it’s completely wrong the entire time. GL everyone
@Yanasaur You are right.. the line is correct the fishiness is meant on the reverse line movement and the money coming in for Carolina at a high spread.. perhaps I should have used a different thread title.. most of the time I am multitasking while doing this which is no excuse.. thanks for your input Yani Good Luck this week too bad I can’t edit the thread title oh well
Just let you know, none of us know what moneys really coming in on the games. Why people continue to believe all the websites that supposedly posts betting numbers for the game boggles my mind. Just look at it like this, if you owned a sports book, would you release these numbers to bettors, in order to help those bettors win your money? If you say yes or it doesnt matter if they tell us the numbers, please quit gambling today. They are not gonna give us any info to help us win, thats pure common sense. If anything they are gonna post false numbers to try and help them balance the money on the games.
In 1999 sports insights was the first ones to start posting sports books numbers, i thought i had found the golden goose and was on my way to riches, lollll. I even signed up for their live info and followed for a few years. In the end all their info still didnt get you over 50 percent. All those reverse line moves were just average.
Only way you will ever get true info, is if you actually know the important people in the books. And if you know important people in the sports books, they will probably give you the picks of the players that win long term.
Its funny when i see posters posting, the public iks on this team or that team, i always ask them who is this mystery group called the public, since for some reason bettors that hang on forums like this, actually believe they arent the public. If you truly want to know who the public is betting, write down all your picks that you think will win, then go into the bathroom, look in the mirror and read those picks out loud. YOU WILL THEN KNOW WHO THE PUBLIC IS ON. This isnt just for you, its for all of us, myself included.
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Quote Originally Posted by ChOmP:
@Yanasaur You are right.. the line is correct the fishiness is meant on the reverse line movement and the money coming in for Carolina at a high spread.. perhaps I should have used a different thread title.. most of the time I am multitasking while doing this which is no excuse.. thanks for your input Yani Good Luck this week too bad I can’t edit the thread title oh well
Just let you know, none of us know what moneys really coming in on the games. Why people continue to believe all the websites that supposedly posts betting numbers for the game boggles my mind. Just look at it like this, if you owned a sports book, would you release these numbers to bettors, in order to help those bettors win your money? If you say yes or it doesnt matter if they tell us the numbers, please quit gambling today. They are not gonna give us any info to help us win, thats pure common sense. If anything they are gonna post false numbers to try and help them balance the money on the games.
In 1999 sports insights was the first ones to start posting sports books numbers, i thought i had found the golden goose and was on my way to riches, lollll. I even signed up for their live info and followed for a few years. In the end all their info still didnt get you over 50 percent. All those reverse line moves were just average.
Only way you will ever get true info, is if you actually know the important people in the books. And if you know important people in the sports books, they will probably give you the picks of the players that win long term.
Its funny when i see posters posting, the public iks on this team or that team, i always ask them who is this mystery group called the public, since for some reason bettors that hang on forums like this, actually believe they arent the public. If you truly want to know who the public is betting, write down all your picks that you think will win, then go into the bathroom, look in the mirror and read those picks out loud. YOU WILL THEN KNOW WHO THE PUBLIC IS ON. This isnt just for you, its for all of us, myself included.
We all use publically available data to make our wagers obviously it’s not 100% but it’s a baseline.. I don’t claim to have the exact handle on bets/money.. you guys are right.. They do not give you detailed financial exposure of sportsbooks or actual dollar-volume..because handle reveals how much money is on the line it is commercially and operationally sensitive information.
You can see which side has more money backing it — through published “handle %” or “money %” splits. That gives a sense of public-money trends.
You cannot reliably know the dollar amount ($X) wagered on a side — publicly available data won’t tell you that.
Because of this, estimates of “how much is riding on a game” are guesses — if you see 80% money on one side, maybe that’s $400 K, maybe it’s $4 M; you don’t know.
Line moves and split shifts may give indirect clues, but they are not proof of exact handle amounts
bottom line
Using “bets %” and “money %” is the best publicly available way to approximate where public and sharp money is flowing. But they’re inherently relative, not absolute.
They help you gauge sentiment (public backing vs. contrarian or sharp wagers) and potentially spot value.
I will be more cautious with the way I express my views/opinions for my wagers in the future for all the school teachers you are correct.. thanks for the input
Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
0
We all use publically available data to make our wagers obviously it’s not 100% but it’s a baseline.. I don’t claim to have the exact handle on bets/money.. you guys are right.. They do not give you detailed financial exposure of sportsbooks or actual dollar-volume..because handle reveals how much money is on the line it is commercially and operationally sensitive information.
You can see which side has more money backing it — through published “handle %” or “money %” splits. That gives a sense of public-money trends.
You cannot reliably know the dollar amount ($X) wagered on a side — publicly available data won’t tell you that.
Because of this, estimates of “how much is riding on a game” are guesses — if you see 80% money on one side, maybe that’s $400 K, maybe it’s $4 M; you don’t know.
Line moves and split shifts may give indirect clues, but they are not proof of exact handle amounts
bottom line
Using “bets %” and “money %” is the best publicly available way to approximate where public and sharp money is flowing. But they’re inherently relative, not absolute.
They help you gauge sentiment (public backing vs. contrarian or sharp wagers) and potentially spot value.
I will be more cautious with the way I express my views/opinions for my wagers in the future for all the school teachers you are correct.. thanks for the input
We all use publically available data to make our wagers obviously it’s not 100% but it’s a baseline.. I don’t claim to have the exact handle on bets/money.. you guys are right.. They do not give you detailed financial exposure of sportsbooks or actual dollar-volume..because handle reveals how much money is on the line it is commercially and operationally sensitive information. You can see which side has more money backing it — through published “handle %” or “money %” splits. That gives a sense of public-money trends. You cannot reliably know the dollar amount ($X) wagered on a side — publicly available data won’t tell you that. Because of this, estimates of “how much is riding on a game” are guesses — if you see 80% money on one side, maybe that’s $400 K, maybe it’s $4 M; you don’t know. Line moves and split shifts may give indirect clues, but they are not proof of exact handle amounts bottom line Using “bets %” and “money %” is the best publicly available way to approximate where public and sharp money is flowing. But they’re inherently relative, not absolute. They help you gauge sentiment (public backing vs. contrarian or sharp wagers) and potentially spot value. I will be more cautious with the way I express my views/opinions for my wagers in the future for all the school teachers you are correct.. thanks for the input
You still dont get it, that info means jack shit, cause you have no idea how much of that money is smart bettor money and how much is dumb money bettor money. Your looking at info that means nothing and am sure the sports books laugh their asses off at the people who think any of the numbers they release is real. Percentage of money bet on a game is 100 percent useless.
You keep talking about public, do you not realize me, you and every bettor on covers is the public. There is no mystery group called the public. Mark my words in time you will realize that these numbers were all flat out garbage, to mess with bettors minds. I just know that if am trying to win another persons money, there is no way that other person is gonna help me win their money.
I truly do wish you luck with this stuff. All i try to do is help fellow bettors stop chasing the same dumb things i have already done in my betting life. Have a great Thanksgiving
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Quote Originally Posted by ChOmP:
We all use publically available data to make our wagers obviously it’s not 100% but it’s a baseline.. I don’t claim to have the exact handle on bets/money.. you guys are right.. They do not give you detailed financial exposure of sportsbooks or actual dollar-volume..because handle reveals how much money is on the line it is commercially and operationally sensitive information. You can see which side has more money backing it — through published “handle %” or “money %” splits. That gives a sense of public-money trends. You cannot reliably know the dollar amount ($X) wagered on a side — publicly available data won’t tell you that. Because of this, estimates of “how much is riding on a game” are guesses — if you see 80% money on one side, maybe that’s $400 K, maybe it’s $4 M; you don’t know. Line moves and split shifts may give indirect clues, but they are not proof of exact handle amounts bottom line Using “bets %” and “money %” is the best publicly available way to approximate where public and sharp money is flowing. But they’re inherently relative, not absolute. They help you gauge sentiment (public backing vs. contrarian or sharp wagers) and potentially spot value. I will be more cautious with the way I express my views/opinions for my wagers in the future for all the school teachers you are correct.. thanks for the input
You still dont get it, that info means jack shit, cause you have no idea how much of that money is smart bettor money and how much is dumb money bettor money. Your looking at info that means nothing and am sure the sports books laugh their asses off at the people who think any of the numbers they release is real. Percentage of money bet on a game is 100 percent useless.
You keep talking about public, do you not realize me, you and every bettor on covers is the public. There is no mystery group called the public. Mark my words in time you will realize that these numbers were all flat out garbage, to mess with bettors minds. I just know that if am trying to win another persons money, there is no way that other person is gonna help me win their money.
I truly do wish you luck with this stuff. All i try to do is help fellow bettors stop chasing the same dumb things i have already done in my betting life. Have a great Thanksgiving
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