Thanks, Giant, but I don't think the second guessing will be too bad if the Packers lose by more than 14. I stated my case and made no promises. What the readers of Covers choose to do with the information is entirely up to them. I hope we all make the right decision tonight because ending the weekend with a loser absolutely sucks!
For me, the writing's been on the wall ever since Brandon Meriweather picked off Jay Cutler with 6:31 to go in last Sunday's game to all but seal the 36-7 final. Every single one of us should be "buy low, sell high" sports bettors, and this situation is one of the extreme "buy low, sell high" situations in all of sports betting. You can X & O this game all you want, but X & Oing this type of game will almost always give you the dead wrong side. I can see only one sensible way to go here, and it's the Matt Flynn-led Packers plus the points over the mighty Patriots.
agree, only play or no play
Now that my misleading thread title has reeled you in, here's some bad news or good news depending on which way you're leaning for tonight's big game.
Producing back-to-back blowout wins in the NFL is hard to do, but recent history suggests that producing three in a row is almost too much to ask. I went back over the last dozen seasons and looked to see how teams did the week after winning consecutive games in which they scored 30 or more points in each while allowing 10 points or less in each. In other words, back-to-back monster blowouts. I found 18 such situations, and here they are:
The St. Louis Rams in 1999 beat the Falcons 35-7, then beat the Bengals 38-10, and then beat the 49ers 42-20.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 1999 beat the Bengals 41-10, then beat the Falcons 30-7, and then beat the Ravens 6-3 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 1999 beat the Ravens 35-8, then beat the Chargers 34-0, and then lost to the Colts in Indianapolis 25-17.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2000 beat the Bears 41-0, then beat the Lions 31-10, and then lost at home to the Jets 21-17.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2000 beat the Browns 48-0, then beat the Cardinals 44-10, and then lost 17-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
The St. Louis Rams in 2001 beat the Dolphins 42-10, then beat the Lions 35-0, and then beat the Giants at home 15-14 (but didn't cover as a 14.5 point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 2002 beat the Cardinals 49-0, then beat the Rams 49-10, and then lost to the Broncos in Denver, 31-24.
The Green Bay Packers in 2003 beat the Raiders 41-7, then beat the Broncos 31-3, and then beat the Seahawks in a wild card playoff game at home in overtime 33-27 (but didn't cover as a 6.5 point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2004 beat the Bears 41-10, then beat the Lions 41-9, and then beat the Titans at home 51-24 (this game got out of hand because the frightened Titans kept trying onside kicks and none of them worked....they also faked a punt and that didn't work either).
The Seattle Seahawks in 2005 beat the Eagles 42-0, then beat the 49ers 41-3, and then beat the Titans in Tennessee 28-24 (but didn't cover as a 7-point favorite).
The Chicago Bears in 2006 beat the Seahawks 37-6, then beat the Bills 40-7, and then beat the Cardinals in Arizona 24-23 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite....."They are who we thought they were!")
The Dallas Cowboys in 2007 beat the Bears 34-10, then beat the Rams 35-7, and then beat the Bills in Buffalo 25-24 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2008 beat the Eagles 36-7, then beat the Bengals 34-3, and then beat the Redskins at home 24-10 (as a 6.5-point favorite).
The Minnesota Vikings in 2009 beat the Seahawks 35-9, then beat the Bears 36-10, and then lost to the Cardinals in Arizona 30-17 (as a 3-point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2009 beat the Titans 31-9, then beat the Rams 42-6, and then beat the 49ers at home 18-14 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2009 beat the Lions 48-3, then beat the Bears 31-7, and then lost in Pittsburgh 23-20 (pushing as a 3-point underdog).
The New England Patriots in 2009 beat the Titans 59-0, then beat the Buccaneers 35-7, and then beat the Dolphins 27-17 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Green Bay Packers in 2009 beat the Seahawks 48-10, then beat the Cardinals 33-7, then returned to Arizona one week later for a wild card playoff game and lost 51-45 in overtime (as a 2.5-point favorite).
An absolutely terrible 3-14-1 ATS for eighteen teams that each looked unstoppable following two straight dominant performances on both sides of the football. Seven of them lost outright despite 17 of the 18 being favored to win. Most worrisome for Pats backers tonight is the fact that the six teams asked to cover a double-digit line following two lopsided wins went 1-5 ATS, the only cover coming courtesy of the 2004 Titans who tried a bunch of trick plays against Peyton Manning and the Colts and all it got them was a 27-point thumping. Those 5 double-digit favorites that failed to get the money missed covering by an average of 11 points per game, and three of the five had to erase a 4th quarter deficit just to win by one point!
5 of the 18 teams listed above appeared in a nationally televised playoff game, Monday night game, or Sunday night game following their back-to-back blowout wins. Together they crumbled under the spotlight where they went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS, with the only wins coming when the Cowboys kicked a 53-yard field goal as time expired in Buffalo and when Al Harris picked one off in overtime for the Packers and returned it for a score in the playoffs against Seattle.
The Patriots allowed the Jets to score just 3 points two weeks ago while the Bears could only score 7 last Sunday. Of the 18 teams listed above, 10 of them allowed no more than 10 points combined in their two big wins. Together they went 1-8-1 ATS the following week. Of those ten, eight of them scored 40 points or more in at least one of the two big wins. Those eight flopped badly the following week, going 4-4 SU & 0-7-1 ATS.
I know it's easy for some of you to dismiss all of this because the Packers have injuries, or you're certain that Matt Flynn won't get anything done, or you're simply in awe of the Patriots and at this point can't fathom seeing them score less than 30 points in a game, but understand that nearly every favorite on that list looked like it had everything going for it, yet most of them stumbled badly just when the betting public least expected it. And nearly every underdog on that list looked like nothing more than the next victim, but instead nearly all of them geared themselves up for the challenge and came out to play. It is an amateur mistake to expect these 2010 Patriots, great as they are and well-coached as they are, to simply roll to another lopsided win. History tells us that no matter how much they may want to, they likely won't have enough left in the proverbial tank mentally or physically to dominate to this extent for the third week in a row. And let's face it, no team can pull off what the Patriots just did without a little luck. It seems like we haven't seen the Patriots make a wrong move, get victimized by a bad call, or catch a bad bounce since the first half against the Lions on Thanksgiving. You figure they'll have to sustain that good luck to cover this 14-point line, and that's asking a LOT considering they've already played ten charmed quarters of football in a row.
Now that my misleading thread title has reeled you in, here's some bad news or good news depending on which way you're leaning for tonight's big game.
Producing back-to-back blowout wins in the NFL is hard to do, but recent history suggests that producing three in a row is almost too much to ask. I went back over the last dozen seasons and looked to see how teams did the week after winning consecutive games in which they scored 30 or more points in each while allowing 10 points or less in each. In other words, back-to-back monster blowouts. I found 18 such situations, and here they are:
The St. Louis Rams in 1999 beat the Falcons 35-7, then beat the Bengals 38-10, and then beat the 49ers 42-20.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 1999 beat the Bengals 41-10, then beat the Falcons 30-7, and then beat the Ravens 6-3 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 1999 beat the Ravens 35-8, then beat the Chargers 34-0, and then lost to the Colts in Indianapolis 25-17.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2000 beat the Bears 41-0, then beat the Lions 31-10, and then lost at home to the Jets 21-17.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2000 beat the Browns 48-0, then beat the Cardinals 44-10, and then lost 17-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
The St. Louis Rams in 2001 beat the Dolphins 42-10, then beat the Lions 35-0, and then beat the Giants at home 15-14 (but didn't cover as a 14.5 point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 2002 beat the Cardinals 49-0, then beat the Rams 49-10, and then lost to the Broncos in Denver, 31-24.
The Green Bay Packers in 2003 beat the Raiders 41-7, then beat the Broncos 31-3, and then beat the Seahawks in a wild card playoff game at home in overtime 33-27 (but didn't cover as a 6.5 point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2004 beat the Bears 41-10, then beat the Lions 41-9, and then beat the Titans at home 51-24 (this game got out of hand because the frightened Titans kept trying onside kicks and none of them worked....they also faked a punt and that didn't work either).
The Seattle Seahawks in 2005 beat the Eagles 42-0, then beat the 49ers 41-3, and then beat the Titans in Tennessee 28-24 (but didn't cover as a 7-point favorite).
The Chicago Bears in 2006 beat the Seahawks 37-6, then beat the Bills 40-7, and then beat the Cardinals in Arizona 24-23 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite....."They are who we thought they were!")
The Dallas Cowboys in 2007 beat the Bears 34-10, then beat the Rams 35-7, and then beat the Bills in Buffalo 25-24 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2008 beat the Eagles 36-7, then beat the Bengals 34-3, and then beat the Redskins at home 24-10 (as a 6.5-point favorite).
The Minnesota Vikings in 2009 beat the Seahawks 35-9, then beat the Bears 36-10, and then lost to the Cardinals in Arizona 30-17 (as a 3-point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2009 beat the Titans 31-9, then beat the Rams 42-6, and then beat the 49ers at home 18-14 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2009 beat the Lions 48-3, then beat the Bears 31-7, and then lost in Pittsburgh 23-20 (pushing as a 3-point underdog).
The New England Patriots in 2009 beat the Titans 59-0, then beat the Buccaneers 35-7, and then beat the Dolphins 27-17 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Green Bay Packers in 2009 beat the Seahawks 48-10, then beat the Cardinals 33-7, then returned to Arizona one week later for a wild card playoff game and lost 51-45 in overtime (as a 2.5-point favorite).
An absolutely terrible 3-14-1 ATS for eighteen teams that each looked unstoppable following two straight dominant performances on both sides of the football. Seven of them lost outright despite 17 of the 18 being favored to win. Most worrisome for Pats backers tonight is the fact that the six teams asked to cover a double-digit line following two lopsided wins went 1-5 ATS, the only cover coming courtesy of the 2004 Titans who tried a bunch of trick plays against Peyton Manning and the Colts and all it got them was a 27-point thumping. Those 5 double-digit favorites that failed to get the money missed covering by an average of 11 points per game, and three of the five had to erase a 4th quarter deficit just to win by one point!
5 of the 18 teams listed above appeared in a nationally televised playoff game, Monday night game, or Sunday night game following their back-to-back blowout wins. Together they crumbled under the spotlight where they went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS, with the only wins coming when the Cowboys kicked a 53-yard field goal as time expired in Buffalo and when Al Harris picked one off in overtime for the Packers and returned it for a score in the playoffs against Seattle.
The Patriots allowed the Jets to score just 3 points two weeks ago while the Bears could only score 7 last Sunday. Of the 18 teams listed above, 10 of them allowed no more than 10 points combined in their two big wins. Together they went 1-8-1 ATS the following week. Of those ten, eight of them scored 40 points or more in at least one of the two big wins. Those eight flopped badly the following week, going 4-4 SU & 0-7-1 ATS.
I know it's easy for some of you to dismiss all of this because the Packers have injuries, or you're certain that Matt Flynn won't get anything done, or you're simply in awe of the Patriots and at this point can't fathom seeing them score less than 30 points in a game, but understand that nearly every favorite on that list looked like it had everything going for it, yet most of them stumbled badly just when the betting public least expected it. And nearly every underdog on that list looked like nothing more than the next victim, but instead nearly all of them geared themselves up for the challenge and came out to play. It is an amateur mistake to expect these 2010 Patriots, great as they are and well-coached as they are, to simply roll to another lopsided win. History tells us that no matter how much they may want to, they likely won't have enough left in the proverbial tank mentally or physically to dominate to this extent for the third week in a row. And let's face it, no team can pull off what the Patriots just did without a little luck. It seems like we haven't seen the Patriots make a wrong move, get victimized by a bad call, or catch a bad bounce since the first half against the Lions on Thanksgiving. You figure they'll have to sustain that good luck to cover this 14-point line, and that's asking a LOT considering they've already played ten charmed quarters of football in a row.
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