The Importance of Consistency and Efficiency

I have talked before on here about how sometimes it is more important to look at consistency and efficiency than it is to look at large or gaudy numbers.

A team can be looked at as mainly Offense and Defense parts.  With Special teams, of course, being a considerable part.

I think the Offense can basically be looked at with Passing, Receiving, and Rushing.  With the Blocking considered as two parts of run blocking and pass blocking.

The Defense can be looked at with Pass Defense, Pass Rush, and Run Defense.

One of the keys for teams in matchups is their available ways to beat other teams on offense.

Another key is they can stop teams in multiple ways as well.

So, a well-balanced team on offense is good because they can plan multiple ways to play.  They can also change if one part is not working well that day.  In other words, they do not have to rely on just one thing working for them.

The same applies to a team’s defense.  You want your team to be consistent at all phases.

The same thing applies to players.  You want players to be as efficient in all phases of their position as possible.

For example, you could argue Garrett is the best defensive player in the league because he is very good at all phases of what his position requires.

Others might be excellent pass rushers.  But a team might scheme to run at them because they are weak in that area.

This also shows how a good coach can make a young player, especially a QB, more consistent.  You see this with Nix and Williams this year.

A consistent QB will help make receivers and blockers look better as well and vice versa.  If a QB gets rid of the ball very quickly, it helps the blockers.  If a receiver gets separation on the route to the spot, it helps the QB.

If a team knows they can rely on their defense to be consistent and not give up big plays at times, it changes some of the things they can do on offense.

Consistency and efficiency are so important in today’s game.  Especially if teams want to win back-to-back-to-back playoff games against other consistent and efficient playoff teams.

So, I thought it was interesting to look at some of these for a few teams and a few individuals.

Top 5 Passing Teams

                   WAR               PE/Play

DEN             3.6                   .239

SF                3.0                   .223

GB                2.6                  .229

CH                2.6                  .200

LAR              2.6                  .193

Top 5 QBs

                   WAR               PE/Play

Nix                3.6                  .241

Williams       2.6                   .201

Stafford        2.6                  .193

Mahomes     2.4                  .196

Goff               2.3                  .185

Top 5 Rushing Teams

                    WAR               PE/Play

WAS              1.1                   .096

BUF               1.1                   .080

SEA                1.1                   .079

IND                1.0                  .082

TB                   .9                   .077

Top 5 RBs

                     WAR             PE/Play

Archane         1.0                 .135

Robinson         .9                 .103

J. Williams       .9                 .109

Taylor              .8                  .088

Walker             .7                  .107

Top 5 Receiving Teams

                     WAR             PE/Play

DET                2.6                 .193

NE                  2.5                 .195

SF                   2.3                 .173

LAR                2.3                  .184

SEA                2.2                  .199

Top 5 Receivers

                     WAR              PE/Route

Nacua            1.7                  .159

McBride         1.3                  .080

S-Njigba        1.0                  .087

Pickens           .9                   .061

Diggs              .8                   .090

Top 5 Blocking Teams

                     WAR             PE/Play

BUF                2.4                 .21

CH                  2.4                 .19

PIT                  2.3                 .22

LAR                 2.1                  .20

JAX                 1.7                  .17

Top 5 Blockers

                              WAR        PE/Play

Darnell Wright        .7             .041

Joe Thuney             .6             .040

David Edwards       .6             .041

Dion Dawkins          .6             .041

Zach Frazier           .5             .044

Top 5 Pass Defense Teams

                WAR         PS/Play

JAX           3.6             .359

DEN           2.6            .309

NE             2.3             .326

PHL           2.3             .297

LAR           2.2             .293

Top 5 Pass Defenders

                  WAR        PS/Play

Stingley       .9            .084

DeJean        .7            .066

M Jackson   .7            .070

Surtain         .7            .073

Lenoir           .6            .063

Top 5 Lowest Rating Against

Jamel Dean           24.1

Josh Jobe              38.9

James Pierre         39.6

Donte Jackson      41.0

DJ Turner               42.0

Top 5 Pass Rush Teams

                   WAR        PS/Play

HOU             2.8          .252

CLV              2.2           .230

DET              2.2           .199

PHL              2.0           .188

DEN              1.8           .184

Top 5 Pass Rushers

                      WAR       PS/Rush

Hutchison       1.5           .109

W Anderson    1.5          .135

Garrett             1.3          .118

D Hunter          1.1           .099

Simmons          1.1           .109

Top 5 Run Defense Teams

                 WAR          PS/Play

CLV            2.3             .452

LV               1.5             .358

JAX            1.2              .379

SEA             1.1              .345

BLT             1.1              .339

Top 5 Run Defenders

                        WAR       PS/Play

Crosby              .8             .087

Q Williams         .6            .111

J Campbell       .6             .074

Schwesinger     .5             .066

Jordyn Brooks   .5            .070

So, I think that sometimes it is not always the teams, or the players, with the big numbers that are best.

Sometimes, of course, the ones with the great numbers are also very consistent and efficient as well.  That is part of the reason why they put the big numbers up.

That is why some teams, they say, are built for the playoffs, while some are better for the regular season.

Some, seem more suited to domes and better weather and others for outside games and bad weather.

I think these things matter more and more because of how the game has changed.

Man Thank you.. Great Info

Raiders22

Good read good stuff, thanks.  

@Raiders22

 Excellent Info, much appreciated. 

Happy New Year’s and wishing you nothing but success.

Thanks man.

Darnell Wright recorded the highest blocking grade of week 17 per PFF, and he had the flu. The guy left for SF the day of the game so he wouldn't travel with the team.

He's the Michael Jordan of offensive linemen 

@Raiders22

 With all due respect…the information you provide, which is fantastic, is what is available to every researcher and talking head in the media. What differentiates the cold hard numbers from the result is intuitive handicapping.

The intuitive handicapping trumps the numbers. Although numbers don’t lie, they are just a foundation to prospective plays.

@takethecannolis

You would have to define what you mean by 'intuitive' handicapping.

Yes, numbers and data have always been around to use.  The folks that use them for their models have usually done better than the folks that go by 'feel' or the 'eye-test' method.

The issue is now, in the last several, years there are even more advanced metrics to use in your models.  These are used by bookmakers to set their power ratings and to help establish a pointspread number.  This is what you are always trying to beat.

So, if you do not have an 'idea' even before the bookmakers release their number of what it should be, then you are flying behind.

If you are just go by intuition to imagine what you feel the line should be, how will you know why the number you think it should be is so far off from what experts set it at?

You have to have an understanding of what reasoning is behind the setting of the line at a particular number.

So, these are basically efficiency numbers here.  There are a lot more of them that make up the actual final number for a team, or an individual.

However, these are not necessarily the same advanced metrics that are used to set a power rating and to set a spread number.  

Sure, some of them are the same.

The 'newer' and more advanced statistics clean up the data and take out what we call 'noise' from the old numbers from a game that you see in a boxscore from a game.

For example, is a team or player padding stats by running up the score on weaker teams.  You get truer information using these numbers.

Now, there are much more useful numbers to use.

So, you 'intuitively' want to fade Mayfield and you want to back Carolina.  The line 'feels' like it should be close to a PK.  Because there is not a lot separating these two teams right now.  So, you are still getting what we call a 'Mayfield tax' in this situation just because he is the better QB.  But is he really 1-2 points better than Young right now?

@takethecannolis

For example, besides just ‘intuition’, you have to have something to back it up.

Another example, is trend-betting or ‘betting history’.

All of these things have their place in betting.

But you need to have something to empirically back it up.

For instance, Carolina is 7-0 ATS after a straight up loss in this exact spot, while covering by almost 12 points per game.

Since 1990, no team has ever gone 8-0 ATS after a straight loss.

So, no matter what it is a unique spot for Carolina this week.

Then consider how bad Mayfield has been at home in this exact spot at home.

He is 5-14 at home in his career against divisional foes.

Since, 2020, and moving to all these teams he is 2-12 ATS against home divisional foes.

So, your ‘intuition’ would tell you that you need to be fading Mayfield as a favorite and backing him as a dog.

Then if you look at the second for Carolina they have covered after every single loss.  

If you blindly bet them after each loss this season you would be 7-0.

Not only have they covered the next game, they have outright won the next game after the first loss of the season.

So, if you took them on the moneyline after a loss you would be 6-1.

The questions become if your ‘intuition’ is telling you these trends and form are there — will they continue and how do you substantiate that ‘feel’?

That is where the numbers help you to back up what you think you are seeing and what you suspect will now happen in the future.

You need to get the odds in your favor as much as possible.  

I think these numbers coupled with the advanced metrics help clean it up a bit and back up your plays and give you confidence that reinforces hat you think, or makes you second-guess what you think.

@takethecannolis

 So, if I am wrong about what you mean by just 'intuitive' handicapping -- let me know.

Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying.

So true Raiders.

Denver might be consistent but they are consistently mediocre. That won't get it done come Playoff time.

Weak statistical no. 1 or 2 seeds usually don't do very well in playoffs unless you are Brady or Mahomes whom  can do it sometimes but hardly all the time.

Good info Raider. Who do you like in the Tampa vs Panthers game after all the information you've gathered? 

@SecretAgentMan1

 I currently have CAR +2.5 and some on ML

I am hoping to get a good +3 and add to it.

Bo Nix is 45-15 in college and the nfl combined. 

That's a nice resume. 

Yes it is.  Some guys just win.  Hurts wins also 

Thanks for your time and effort, R22.

Good luck in the playoffs.

@Raiders22

I currently have CAR +2.5 and some on ML

I am hoping to get a good +3 and add to it.

Bet rivers (Carolina +3 -115 currently

Thanks for your effort, great reserach.