The BIGGEST write-up on the web for this game and EVERYTHING you need to know about BILLS@JETS!!!

2014 NFL Record: 3-1

I am going to say this unequivocally: The Jets are going to win this game.

First we need to discuss a WIN, then discuss a COVER.

Let's get right to the reasons for the WIN:

1. Percy Harvin

What does Percy Harvin mean to the Jets? Clearly he is an upgrade at WR. This is a team with a below-average receiving core and a below average QB.

For the first time in years, the Jets brought in a big play receiver (without issues) in Decker. Decker is very nice. But he is not a #1 guy. He is a great complimentary receiver. ANYONE can be a # 1 when Manning is throwing the ball. This is Geno throwing the ball. Now Geno has TWO legit weapons on each side and a true #1. Marty Mornhinweg finally has the opportunity to run some routes with real receivers. While the QB is lacking, he will have enough in this game, both arm and legs to get us where we need to be: at the window. 

Now whether he plays or doesn't play doesn't matter, he represents the one thing a 1-6 team needs: HOPE.

This acquisition is a vote of confidence to one thing and one thing only: that the season is NOT OVER.

It is finally John Idzik doing what he should have done this offseason: upgrade the CB and WR positions. He failed to do one but has picked up slack in a major way on the other.

It took long enough and the Jets are on the brink of disaster but finally they have pulled the trigger on what was beyond necessary at the start of this season.

Don't worry about Harvin's attitude. Even the worst of the worst (e.g. Terrell Owens) play the 'good soldier' to audition for a contract the following season, knowing full well they could be out of the league soon enough if they didn't, at least for half a season.

2. Rex Ryan

He is a defensive genius. Now that his offense has been shored up a bit, it takes pressure off his D (and hopefully keeps them off the field more).

Also, Rex is extremely proud and won't leave his post to a season of complete disaster (4-12/3-13...and if you lose to the Bills and drop to 1-7, you are staring at those records).

He is a player's coach and by default, gets the most out of his players. That is very important in a game like this.

Lastly, and this is important: Rex truly believes the season is not over. He's said this in multiple interviews over the course of the last three weeks. He spreads this mindset to his players who begin to believe it as well.

How do you solidify it? A statement win over the Bills which will come tomorrow.

3. Jets ATS

They are 1-6 SU but 2-5 ATS.

But really, that ATS record could be 4-3 if not for last second scores.

In week 1, the Jets allowed a backdoor cover by the Raiders in the final minute, a penalty-filled affair they dominated the whole way.

In week 6 vs. Denver? The infamous pick 6.

If not for one minute of last-second scores, the Jets go from a terrible SU team to a profitable ATS team.

This team could actually be paying us ATS and should be. Tomorrow they will be.

All the better though as the low line is a function of their 'poor' ATS record.

4. Murderer's Row

The Jets are 1-6. But let's look at the QB's they faced:

Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Cutler, Stafford (the last 2 are pushing it but still have great arms).

All that's missing is Luck and Brees and you have the cream of the crop behind center in the NFL facing the Jets.

And this is against a heavily depleted secondary. It should be no surprise the Jets record is what it is, save a win here or there. 2-5? 1-6? What does it matter? It's an awful season thusfar and wouldn't be much better otherwise. But what do we care as a bettor? We only care about THIS WEEK and THIS WEEK only.

Now who do they get after that murderer's row of QB's?

Kyle Orton - As admirable as he has played, the Bills haven't had a 300 yard passer in...30 games.

And the 1st and 2nd string running backs are out.

So where is the offense to beat the Jets at home?

It's not there. If you put it all on Kyle Orton with your money and just a FG in an away game against a division rival, you are in big trouble.

5. The Bills

Again, this team gets out to a hot start, is 4-3 and now goes to play a division rival in desperate need of a win, coming off a big emotional last-second victory, with no RB's and a backup QB (playing well). Imagine if I told you that in week 1 for this matchup and told you to guess the line. What would it be? 7? 8!? Look what we have! THREE! A wonderful push line!

The Bills could easily be 3-4 and really should be. But at 4-3, we get a push line of 3. All the better.

If they lose this game, they'll be .500, still in search of a playoff spot. No harm, no foul.

If the Jets lose, who can they beat? They couldn't beat Manning/Brady/Rodgers. If they then can't beat Kyle Orton and the Bills, what can be said at a podium post game. They will show up today to say "Hey, at least we can beat the Bills". And that's all that matters to us.

6. The Jets performance against the Pats.

Not only did the Jets come within a blocked FG from beating the Pats in their building, they dominated the game outside of a few big plays.

Time of Possession - 40:54

Rushing yards - 218 (with 205 passing)

Total Yards - 423 (exactly 100 more than the Pats)

First Downs - 28 to the Pats 16.

If they can do this at the Pats in an away game in desperate need of a win, they can certainly do it at home against the injury ravaged Bills in their own building.

7. Miscellaneous things in Jets favor

-Jets coming off ten days rest to prepare for this game after last week's TNF game.

-Bills are the worst team in the NFL playing teams in their own division on the road going 9-27 straight up since realignment. With a spread of 3, that is very relevant.

-Bills are starting 2 rookie offensive lineman against the best front 7 in the NFL who will be iching to destroy Orton if they get their hands on them. And I'm sure the RB Bryce Brown, a guy the Eagles didn't even want, is thrilled to run with that in front of him.

-Rex did something he has NEVER done as a head coach: He called out one of his defensive players Calvin Pryor, in the media. This wasn't just a shot at Pryor, but a more subtle shot at the entire secondary.

Although ravaged and lacking talent, I believe this was a nudge on Rex's part to step up and get the job done. The secondary will respond.

In summation, the Jets will get the win. Now will they cover? Yes.

Why?

8. The Cover - The bookies are unable to adjust the line for more extreme situations such as these.

The books simply can't lay more than 3 to the Bills here even though they know they should. They can't break a certain rule they have for away/home line comparison.

The traditional line shift from home to away is 6/6.5/7 (more with stronger home fields).

If the Jets were at the Bills, a line shift of 6.5 would be -3.5 Bills in Buffalo.

This makes sense to them given the 4-3 above .500 Bills would lay .5 point more than what the Jets are laying here to the 1-6 below .500 visiting Jets who would be just as desperate but still must win in a tough venue.

I say that rule is crap and is to our advantage. 

There is NO RUNNING game on the Bills. There is a backup who contemplated retiring not just a few months ago. There is a Jets team with a coach and QB on life support who will knock over their own grandmother to get the ball in the end zone today. 

But the books simply can't give out a proper line of 6-6.5 and even 7. Now that would be a tougher and more ballsy line.

Before you say the line is 'right where it should be', consider the Skins/Titans line last week which, with all the Kirk Cousins hysteria, got to 7 for the Skins at home. Skins were 1-5 playing the 2-4 Titans.

Does anyone here really believe this ravaged Bills team, also playing their backup QB, with no RB's in this spot, coming off a emotional high from last week's win, against a much more dependable Jets team that has hung tough with the Broncos and Patriots and jumped out to a 21-3 lead at Lambeau this year, is worth 4 points LESS than what the lousy Skins gave the Titans?

No way in hell!

Yes, the Skins only won by 2 but there are too many problems to list on this page as to why that is, starting with a massive overvaluing of Kirk Cousins by the public. Still the books made them lay 7 as a public team.

That is why 3 is a bargain.

And please, to the posters who will play the Bills, don't let your ONE counterargument be: The Bills run defense is great and the Jets will have trouble moving the ball on the ground.

Wrong. The trio of RB's the Jets have will still be able to counter that. Maybe not with 200+ yards like last week, but enough to get over this number. Geno will be going all out today too.

9. One big con to betting the Jets

They simply do not force turnovers and that is a problem.

They have an atrocious 1 INT ALL YEAR!!! And only 2 forced fumble recoveries.

This is because of the backups and rookies in their secondary putting a lot more pressure on the front 7.

If the Jets limit their turnovers, they'll be fine. But lose the ball and they'll have to make up those points with 80 yard drives. The encouraging stat? Zero TO's against the Pats last week.

I wouldn't worry as much this week about this given Rex called out his underperforming secondary, to at a minimum, be more aggressive and get the ball in the hands of green jerseys.

So we have argued sufficiently with ample evidence for a WIN and a COVER. What more do you want?

The line is fishy? I just can't do it! 70% of the public is on the Jets! Covers bloodbath coming! All of that is meaningless and is your own anxiety pushing you to play with much less info and far worse spots. All of the same was said about the Broncos just a few days ago against the Chargers. All of it will be said every single NFL week from now until the end of time on this board.

4 stars

The pick:

Jets -3 OVER Bills

Quote Originally Posted by jdawgqn86:

J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!! 

Fireman Ed???

None whatsoever. I'm only a side bettor.

Yes, and they went 2-2. And their two wins came at the second while their two losses were embarrassing. Does this prove something with regard to the Bills?

You could say the same thing about virtually any NFL game ever played before kickoff!

Ok! So the Bills have more wins than the Jets against Rivers/Cutler/Stafford and Brady.

That sufficiently counters the points made in OP???

BOL.

Quote Originally Posted by Figgygetitin:

Scal, I was refreshing your space page all day yesterday anxiously awaiting this write up while playing at my local daytona poker room. I have utmost respect for your capping. I always love tailing your picks because it seems like the only way we will lose is by some miracle backdown shanking. Here's to Geno not throwing  a pick-6 in the final seconds! 

Geno throws picks. Ya gotta live with it. But there is so much more here than an occassional INT from Geno to back the Jets (yes, as long as it isn't a pick 6 but that goes for any QB in the league on all plays!).

And look at how they won! On the last play of the game.

I'll take the Jets front 7 with Rex on the 2 yard line against the Bills who must pass given they have no RB's, up 6 for the cover over Orton.

I'm telling you, you are on the wrong side today.