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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    The BIGGEST (and maybe the BEST, yes I said it) WRITE-UP on the board for this Sunday: DOLPHINS@JETS

    «First Previous 789 ... 101112 Next Last»
    Daran.T
    HoldingXYZ
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    Daran.T
    Daran.T
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 5:31 AM ET #151

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     
    2 weeks ago:
    Bills over Jets (posted, and Bills CRUSHED THEM)
    Cowboys +2 over Giants (posted, Cowboys win 24-21)
    So you keep fading away. I love when losers in life keep losing on my account.


    I agree with your pick Scala, you've been banking recently on the NFL picks.  Thanks for the 3-page Essay write up .

    Just please don't give out any more Rutgers picks.  You and my capper killed me on that one.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     
    2 weeks ago:
    Bills over Jets (posted, and Bills CRUSHED THEM)
    Cowboys +2 over Giants (posted, Cowboys win 24-21)
    So you keep fading away. I love when losers in life keep losing on my account.


    I agree with your pick Scala, you've been banking recently on the NFL picks.  Thanks for the 3-page Essay write up .

    Just please don't give out any more Rutgers picks.  You and my capper killed me on that one.
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 5:45 AM ET #152

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

     

     

    There are things to look for that tell one a regression is coming, you can not just use that theroy for evey team that played poorly.

    One thing is when teams play at extreme levels below their averages, the more extreme the higher % chance a regression is coming very soon.. Jets have played back-to back games at extreme levels below their averages.

    This is why you can not just use past few games as a indicvator going forward the way the OP did.

    I can't always get it right the 1st game, but usually will within 2 games.

    It's coming for the Jets could very well be this week, if not depending on how they play could make it even bigger and better for them next week.


    This is true too. Sometimes people forget that riding the money train may break eventually. Once it gets to the point WLWLWL like 5-6 times by then people catch on and it's the other way. 

    Claw it's true I agree. Basically he's saying as easy as it is to fade teams off a win. You still need to account for how bad the worser team has lost by. And rank it against the team they played and the team they are about to play. I mean just last week jax beat Houston pretty good. There's about 1-2 upsets per week. I think when people start pounding those money lines. That's when stuff starts to keel over. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

     

     

    There are things to look for that tell one a regression is coming, you can not just use that theroy for evey team that played poorly.

    One thing is when teams play at extreme levels below their averages, the more extreme the higher % chance a regression is coming very soon.. Jets have played back-to back games at extreme levels below their averages.

    This is why you can not just use past few games as a indicvator going forward the way the OP did.

    I can't always get it right the 1st game, but usually will within 2 games.

    It's coming for the Jets could very well be this week, if not depending on how they play could make it even bigger and better for them next week.


    This is true too. Sometimes people forget that riding the money train may break eventually. Once it gets to the point WLWLWL like 5-6 times by then people catch on and it's the other way. 

    Claw it's true I agree. Basically he's saying as easy as it is to fade teams off a win. You still need to account for how bad the worser team has lost by. And rank it against the team they played and the team they are about to play. I mean just last week jax beat Houston pretty good. There's about 1-2 upsets per week. I think when people start pounding those money lines. That's when stuff starts to keel over. 
     
    Daran.T
    Daran.T
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 6:18 AM ET #153

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    I see this as being a 14-10 game at worst and the jets will get the ball on their own 20 with 2 minutes left and will get one first down and then get stopped. Game over. 

    Like the boys/giants game I posted, it won't be an easy win but there are simply too many reasons to take the fins here. 

    Hmmm. 
    Wouldn't you have a better case for the UNDER versus the spread?  40 points is a lot for these 2 teams.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    I see this as being a 14-10 game at worst and the jets will get the ball on their own 20 with 2 minutes left and will get one first down and then get stopped. Game over. 

    Like the boys/giants game I posted, it won't be an easy win but there are simply too many reasons to take the fins here. 

    Hmmm. 
    Wouldn't you have a better case for the UNDER versus the spread?  40 points is a lot for these 2 teams.
     
    kevmode
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 6:38 AM ET #154

    Oh no not Scalbrine again.  When are you going to give it rest man.  You only make these type threads because you need attention.
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    Oh no not Scalbrine again.  When are you going to give it rest man.  You only make these type threads because you need attention.
     
    migger
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 7:04 AM ET #155

    one word RUTGERS bro
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    one word RUTGERS bro
     
    mauiwowie
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 8:04 AM ET #156

    So with all the talk about the running game and how the defenses will be stout and Miami being one dimensional, would it not be safe to play the under?
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    So with all the talk about the running game and how the defenses will be stout and Miami being one dimensional, would it not be safe to play the under?
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 8:11 AM ET #157

    Do you post one of these in every sport. I couldve sworn youve been handing out losers on a regular basis. Be careful followers.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    Do you post one of these in every sport. I couldve sworn youve been handing out losers on a regular basis. Be careful followers.
     
    vdstrading
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 8:22 AM ET #158

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Line: Dolphins+2/+1 depending on the book vs. Jets

    To all you Jets backers this weekend, I have two numbers for you that I want you to remember after reading this thread and ones which will be etched in your brain if you are still backing the Jets on Sunday:

    1 FOR 31

    Those are the numbers that will haunt you.

    What do they mean?

    That is the number of times the Jets, lead by Geno Smith, who will start the game but might not finish, has scored a touchdown in his last THIRTY ONE DRIVES.

    And if you want to stop reading right now, that is all you need to bet the Fins and fade the Jets.

    The Jets are NOT SCORING TOUCHDOWNS with Geno and are not scoring enough to beat anyone, nevermind the Dolphins.

    You're still reading and you're a Jet backer?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    Geno Smith has completed less than TEN passes in each of his last three games with no TD's and 5 INT's (and several fumbles too!).

    You're still reading?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    The Jets have score 52 points in their last FOUR games, an average of 13 a game, and that includes the win over the Saints!

    You're still reading?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    Turnover machine Geno is going up against a team that had forced 14 interceptions, good for SIXTH in the NFL. Good luck trusting Geno to throw into that coverage.

    You're still reading?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    All week, Rex has been preaching getting back to ground and pound to give Geno more time when he needs to throw (likely on third and long).

    Who will be running for you? Primarily Chris Ivory.

    Why is that a bad thing? He's not 100%. He was limited in practice this week thusfar. In fact, no one knows what percentage he is since last week when he sprained his ankle in the first quarter and ended with a season low 9 carries and 35 yards in an embarrassing Jets loss. While the Dolphins rank 25th in the NFL in run defense, when Geno is behind center, you can stack the box more often and stuff the run more effectively, especially with Rex being cocky and giving up their gameplan publicly (and if he's playing reverse psychology, it's even worse if Geno will throw more).

    Chris Ivory had ONE HUGE game. It was against the Saints. Do you know why? That was his former team and he burned them bad. He ran for a ridiculous 139 yards that game.

    That's good Chris Ivory. 

    Want bad Chris Ivory? No? You'll get him anyway.

    35 yards vs. Baltimore
    11 yards vs. Cincy (11!)
    16 yards vs. Pitt
    5 yards vs. the Bills at home (5!)

    Now he's gimpy. Good luck resting the entire workload on Powell.


    You're still reading? 

    Ok it gets worse. You trust in the Jets at home right? Geno is 4-1 ATS at home!!! Wow!! Put your pencil back in your pocket protector buddy. That Geno was LIGHT YEARS AWAY from this one.

    While he excels at home, this is a bad spot for him. The media and the fans are circling like buzzards to jump at the first turnover Sunday and the boos will reign down like hailstones on this guy if it happens early in the game. It will break this guy.

    I watched THE EXACT same thing happen to Sanchez and he crumbled like a wet paper bag. Why would Geno be any different?

    He wouldn't. Because it's the same fans sabatoging their own franchise by beating up on their own team when their rookie QB doesn't get them to the playoffs. I've seen it all my life with these fans. A home game is the worst thing for Geno in this spot given the intense glare that will be on every ball release from his fingertips.

    I could go on and on.

    But why?

    Is the above enough for a Jets fade?

    No?



    Will this be as good as your Rutgers play yesterday?
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Line: Dolphins+2/+1 depending on the book vs. Jets

    To all you Jets backers this weekend, I have two numbers for you that I want you to remember after reading this thread and ones which will be etched in your brain if you are still backing the Jets on Sunday:

    1 FOR 31

    Those are the numbers that will haunt you.

    What do they mean?

    That is the number of times the Jets, lead by Geno Smith, who will start the game but might not finish, has scored a touchdown in his last THIRTY ONE DRIVES.

    And if you want to stop reading right now, that is all you need to bet the Fins and fade the Jets.

    The Jets are NOT SCORING TOUCHDOWNS with Geno and are not scoring enough to beat anyone, nevermind the Dolphins.

    You're still reading and you're a Jet backer?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    Geno Smith has completed less than TEN passes in each of his last three games with no TD's and 5 INT's (and several fumbles too!).

    You're still reading?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    The Jets have score 52 points in their last FOUR games, an average of 13 a game, and that includes the win over the Saints!

    You're still reading?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    Turnover machine Geno is going up against a team that had forced 14 interceptions, good for SIXTH in the NFL. Good luck trusting Geno to throw into that coverage.

    You're still reading?

    Ok, it gets worse.

    All week, Rex has been preaching getting back to ground and pound to give Geno more time when he needs to throw (likely on third and long).

    Who will be running for you? Primarily Chris Ivory.

    Why is that a bad thing? He's not 100%. He was limited in practice this week thusfar. In fact, no one knows what percentage he is since last week when he sprained his ankle in the first quarter and ended with a season low 9 carries and 35 yards in an embarrassing Jets loss. While the Dolphins rank 25th in the NFL in run defense, when Geno is behind center, you can stack the box more often and stuff the run more effectively, especially with Rex being cocky and giving up their gameplan publicly (and if he's playing reverse psychology, it's even worse if Geno will throw more).

    Chris Ivory had ONE HUGE game. It was against the Saints. Do you know why? That was his former team and he burned them bad. He ran for a ridiculous 139 yards that game.

    That's good Chris Ivory. 

    Want bad Chris Ivory? No? You'll get him anyway.

    35 yards vs. Baltimore
    11 yards vs. Cincy (11!)
    16 yards vs. Pitt
    5 yards vs. the Bills at home (5!)

    Now he's gimpy. Good luck resting the entire workload on Powell.


    You're still reading? 

    Ok it gets worse. You trust in the Jets at home right? Geno is 4-1 ATS at home!!! Wow!! Put your pencil back in your pocket protector buddy. That Geno was LIGHT YEARS AWAY from this one.

    While he excels at home, this is a bad spot for him. The media and the fans are circling like buzzards to jump at the first turnover Sunday and the boos will reign down like hailstones on this guy if it happens early in the game. It will break this guy.

    I watched THE EXACT same thing happen to Sanchez and he crumbled like a wet paper bag. Why would Geno be any different?

    He wouldn't. Because it's the same fans sabatoging their own franchise by beating up on their own team when their rookie QB doesn't get them to the playoffs. I've seen it all my life with these fans. A home game is the worst thing for Geno in this spot given the intense glare that will be on every ball release from his fingertips.

    I could go on and on.

    But why?

    Is the above enough for a Jets fade?

    No?



    Will this be as good as your Rutgers play yesterday?
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:20 AM ET #159

    Quote Originally Posted by atlas1234:

    Keep it up. Three in a row would be very nice for you. Seriously, I am rooting for you. I might even tail you because the Jets really are bad. So is Miami.


    It is the best play on the board. Taking your chances against the jets is MUCH better than dealing with Houston or Jax and hoping the spread gets you home.
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    Quote Originally Posted by atlas1234:

    Keep it up. Three in a row would be very nice for you. Seriously, I am rooting for you. I might even tail you because the Jets really are bad. So is Miami.


    It is the best play on the board. Taking your chances against the jets is MUCH better than dealing with Houston or Jax and hoping the spread gets you home.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:28 AM ET #160

    Quote Originally Posted by craftysiince84:

    I hope no one follows this guy

    I hope no one follows you into the john to take a leak because they won't stop laughing.

    Eat a urinal biscuit while you're in there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by craftysiince84:

    I hope no one follows this guy

    I hope no one follows you into the john to take a leak because they won't stop laughing.

    Eat a urinal biscuit while you're in there.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:32 AM ET #161

    Quote Originally Posted by WizrduvOdz:

    Liked Mia before your write up. Love the play now. One other play I like just as much is Arizone +anything against Eagles

    Thx. It's a rock solid play man. Researched it from here to kingdom come.

    Can't argue with the Arizona play either.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizrduvOdz:

    Liked Mia before your write up. Love the play now. One other play I like just as much is Arizone +anything against Eagles

    Thx. It's a rock solid play man. Researched it from here to kingdom come.

    Can't argue with the Arizona play either.
     
    1919
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:34 AM ET #162

    I really like the Dolphins today


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    I really like the Dolphins today


     
    FollowTheLine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:34 AM ET #163

    i took the jets when i saw this thread... you are an AUTO FADE.. thank for the  fade yesterday in college football
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    i took the jets when i saw this thread... you are an AUTO FADE.. thank for the  fade yesterday in college football
     
    mcgrumpy247
    mcgrumpy247
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:40 AM ET #164

    Rutgers!!!!!!!! Part DEUCE
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    Rutgers!!!!!!!! Part DEUCE
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:41 AM ET #165

    Quote Originally Posted by ndsent1:

    Best of luck 

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    Quote Originally Posted by ndsent1:

    Best of luck 

     
    DiscoD69
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 9:55 AM ET #166

    BOL scal 
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    BOL scal 
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 10:01 AM ET #167

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

     

     

    There are things to look for that tell one a regression is coming, you can not just use that theroy for evey team that played poorly.

    One thing is when teams play at extreme levels below their averages, the more extreme the higher % chance a regression is coming very soon.. Jets have played back-to back games at extreme levels below their averages.

    This is why you can not just use past few games as a indicvator going forward the way the OP did.

    I can't always get it right the 1st game, but usually will within 2 games.

    It's coming for the Jets could very well be this week, if not depending on how they play could make it even bigger and better for them next week.


    I am NOT just using the past few games.

    I am telling you to consider the Jets were a 50 yard knocked down Hail Mary pass from losing to what was a bad Bucs team at the time. Unreal penalty later and it's a Jets win?

    + 1 loss

    I'm telling you Geno's Best game was agaisnt NE and the jets still needed a penalty NEVER called in the history of the NFL to win it.

    + 1 loss? Can't say but it is quite possible going against Brady/Belichick in OT.

    I'm telling you if it wasn't for Chris Ivory, the win that ALL jet backers remember and hold onto when they bet the jets today, the jets do not win that game and likely don't even cover. And ivory had an ankle sprain and is probable today but won't even have a sniff of the game he had agaisnt his ex-team (where the jets fed him the ball relentlessly). His backup is not that good.

    So they will force Geno to pass today and that is where jet backers are in trouble: 8TD/18INT ration.

    The Jets could really be 3-8. And their starting QB is a mess. And their starting RB is not 100% and didn't practice almost all week. And their secondary is total crap and Antonio Cromartie may not play too.

    So what do you have left.

    Rex Ryan's DLine! That'll win the game for you? Laying points too?


    Snake oil.


    Take some BIG teaspoons full bro.

    I spit that crap out weeks ago and it came out of my mouth like Old Faithful erupting.


    Dolphins ML


    It will win.


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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

     

     

    There are things to look for that tell one a regression is coming, you can not just use that theroy for evey team that played poorly.

    One thing is when teams play at extreme levels below their averages, the more extreme the higher % chance a regression is coming very soon.. Jets have played back-to back games at extreme levels below their averages.

    This is why you can not just use past few games as a indicvator going forward the way the OP did.

    I can't always get it right the 1st game, but usually will within 2 games.

    It's coming for the Jets could very well be this week, if not depending on how they play could make it even bigger and better for them next week.


    I am NOT just using the past few games.

    I am telling you to consider the Jets were a 50 yard knocked down Hail Mary pass from losing to what was a bad Bucs team at the time. Unreal penalty later and it's a Jets win?

    + 1 loss

    I'm telling you Geno's Best game was agaisnt NE and the jets still needed a penalty NEVER called in the history of the NFL to win it.

    + 1 loss? Can't say but it is quite possible going against Brady/Belichick in OT.

    I'm telling you if it wasn't for Chris Ivory, the win that ALL jet backers remember and hold onto when they bet the jets today, the jets do not win that game and likely don't even cover. And ivory had an ankle sprain and is probable today but won't even have a sniff of the game he had agaisnt his ex-team (where the jets fed him the ball relentlessly). His backup is not that good.

    So they will force Geno to pass today and that is where jet backers are in trouble: 8TD/18INT ration.

    The Jets could really be 3-8. And their starting QB is a mess. And their starting RB is not 100% and didn't practice almost all week. And their secondary is total crap and Antonio Cromartie may not play too.

    So what do you have left.

    Rex Ryan's DLine! That'll win the game for you? Laying points too?


    Snake oil.


    Take some BIG teaspoons full bro.

    I spit that crap out weeks ago and it came out of my mouth like Old Faithful erupting.


    Dolphins ML


    It will win.


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 10:05 AM ET #168

    Quote Originally Posted by winner005:

    Either U suck or U work for bookie, every time a long write up game. Is a loser. NBA Portland CFL Rutgers

    You have no idea what the hell you are talking about...
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner005:

    Either U suck or U work for bookie, every time a long write up game. Is a loser. NBA Portland CFL Rutgers

    You have no idea what the hell you are talking about...
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 10:06 AM ET #169

    Quote Originally Posted by jmak21:

    Rode the Rutgers pick but still had one hell of a day so we re good...and we ll be better after a dolphins win! BOL

    It hurt me more than you. Rutgers bottomed out and the school is dead at the moment. Betting 2.5 against that was the right play.

    Fins will take it home.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmak21:

    Rode the Rutgers pick but still had one hell of a day so we re good...and we ll be better after a dolphins win! BOL

    It hurt me more than you. Rutgers bottomed out and the school is dead at the moment. Betting 2.5 against that was the right play.

    Fins will take it home.
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 10:19 AM ET #170

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeyBotz:


    The Jets do have one of the worst secondary's in the league, you didn't have to tell me that.  I'd petition for Bama to take Dee Milliner back and Ed Reed to get off the circus.  It's people like you that I love because you are so closed minded and think that there is only one side to a story.  I really appreciate you taking the time out to write that lengthy and insightful write up about how there was no way in hell that Rutgers would lose to UCONN.  Great play man, GREAT play.  I had faith in conversing with other bettors to get insight and try and help each other out but clearly it is people like you that really just ruin it for everyone.

    Best of luck with your bets and my fades. 

    Yeah great play.

    Except you didn't have a single good reason to play UConn.


    Plus that was an experiment in posting.

    This is the big one. No fooling around here, only wins. Big wins...
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeyBotz:


    The Jets do have one of the worst secondary's in the league, you didn't have to tell me that.  I'd petition for Bama to take Dee Milliner back and Ed Reed to get off the circus.  It's people like you that I love because you are so closed minded and think that there is only one side to a story.  I really appreciate you taking the time out to write that lengthy and insightful write up about how there was no way in hell that Rutgers would lose to UCONN.  Great play man, GREAT play.  I had faith in conversing with other bettors to get insight and try and help each other out but clearly it is people like you that really just ruin it for everyone.

    Best of luck with your bets and my fades. 

    Yeah great play.

    Except you didn't have a single good reason to play UConn.


    Plus that was an experiment in posting.

    This is the big one. No fooling around here, only wins. Big wins...
     
    luckyly
    luckyly
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 10:25 AM ET #171

    with ya all the way,,also like buffalo and tampa,,
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    with ya all the way,,also like buffalo and tampa,,
     
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 10:27 AM ET #172

    Christ now i'm worried, oh well what is done is done. 
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    Christ now i'm worried, oh well what is done is done. 
     
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 10:41 AM ET #173

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Yeah great play.

    Except you didn't have a single good reason to play UConn.


    Plus that was an experiment in posting.

    This is the big one. No fooling around here, only wins. Big wins...
    Like it would matter on that play or any other.  No need to say BOL in that you have been watching these teams your entire life.
    Don’t tell me the law. Tell me the judge.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Yeah great play.

    Except you didn't have a single good reason to play UConn.


    Plus that was an experiment in posting.

    This is the big one. No fooling around here, only wins. Big wins...
    Like it would matter on that play or any other.  No need to say BOL in that you have been watching these teams your entire life.
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 11:01 AM ET #174

    Quote Originally Posted by BIGfnPOO:

    good write up. i would be swayed if the rutgers sqd won....that was a bet changing writeup. very good and persuasive as this jets one...but  i shall say..it is so logical that any smart bettor knows what scal is saying  so....i fade the publik and go w/ jets.  but yr writeups are good  ,no one can deny u that.     jets  from my first cigarette til my last dyin breath

    Thx but....

    Cigarettes kill.

    The jets will kill your bankroll today. 

    It's all coming back today after RU yesterday.

    Don't get left standing by the curb.

    This money train is leaving the station in two hours...

    All aboooooooooard!
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGfnPOO:

    good write up. i would be swayed if the rutgers sqd won....that was a bet changing writeup. very good and persuasive as this jets one...but  i shall say..it is so logical that any smart bettor knows what scal is saying  so....i fade the publik and go w/ jets.  but yr writeups are good  ,no one can deny u that.     jets  from my first cigarette til my last dyin breath

    Thx but....

    Cigarettes kill.

    The jets will kill your bankroll today. 

    It's all coming back today after RU yesterday.

    Don't get left standing by the curb.

    This money train is leaving the station in two hours...

    All aboooooooooard!
     
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2013 - 11:01 AM ET #175

    Quote Originally Posted by UglyKidJoe:

    Very nice write up.
    Lets get that cash.

    Small bills....make it rain 
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    Quote Originally Posted by UglyKidJoe:

    Very nice write up.
    Lets get that cash.

    Small bills....make it rain 
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