TEN + 7.5 vs. DEN

The first 8 minutes of this video are quite compelling, I think. NFL LIVE | How Bo Nix Passed Sean Payton's "QB Test" - Peter Schrager on if Broncos succeed with him

They finished 30th in points allowed.

Good for you.

The fact the books are offering the hook on top of the TD, plus the mispriced HFA (6 vs 3)= value

This dog will not barking.

Broncos were 8-0 ATS in 2024 when Favorites.  

Opponents: 

Chiefs in week 18 line -10 Chiefs resting players 

Raiders fell victim twice to the horses

Saints

Falcons 

Browns 

Colts

Panthers

That's quite the list 

The horses got the job done for sure and if the Titans don’t improve and impress they are going to get exploited for sure. 

In the above listed games there were only 2

 games with a line more than -7 Panthers -13 and Chiefs -10 

The Broncos of course are an improved team but so are the Titans.  I’m banking on the Titans improving significantly at QB this season.  

On the flip side, at this point, it’s a best guess and completely in the dark take.  Maybe a few preseason games are needed to be seen? 

What if Ward doesn’t play or what if he doesn’t play a lot?  That’s even better because if the Titans are not confident they will need him to improve and get him snaps to improve.  If they are confident then they don’t need to see more and risk a pre season injury. 

Good analysis.  Those weren't exactly the NFL's toughest dogs last season.

VR, good luck with your large bet on DEN.  I just have a one-unit bet on TEN, so it won't exactly cripple my bankroll if TEN fails to cover.

@DogbiteWilliams

 The Titans don’t qualify as a gem yet but they will be a weekly bet for me.  The horses may dominate this one but will be tested.  If the horses cover here,  their lines will keep ascending. 

Week 3 and beyond is where De

Week 3  is where Denver’s schedule gets elevated. 

@DogbiteWilliams

@DogbiteWilliams

Apparently the books will be needing the Titans to cover also as the Broncos are the flavor of opening week.
I don't believe that the money wagered in this game is being bet even steven on both sides. Can you imagine the teasers that have the Broncos? DBW might be onto something. 

@monkeebooger

@DogbiteWilliams

 Thank you, sir.  I like that the spread is now 8. It's called gambling for a reason.  Your bet maybe the one for week one.  You played it correctly, not large. 

I told myself that if ever enough money pushed TEN to +8 I would risk a half-unit on the money line.

TEN +7.5 (1.0 unit)

TEN +315 (0.5 unit)

Covers has DEN at 76%.  I am happy to be on the other side with a query hitting SU at 40.9%.

@Vanrush

@DogbiteWilliams

 Up to +9 -123 my site 

@monkeebooger

@Biscuiteater1

On the Monday episode of ESPN Bet Live, Joe Fortenbaugh laid out a solid case for DEN.  QBs that were the #1 overall picks making their NFL debuts went just 5-22-1 SU and 8-20 ATS.  Bo Nix is 8-0 SU and ATS as a favorite.

thx for that DBW. Combine above tendancy with the rookie qb first start on the road and a mispriced HFA should lead to a DENVER play or a PASS.

GL on your play,very surprised you see this as a live DOG.

thx for that DBW. Combine above tendancy with the rookie qb first start on the road and a mispriced HFA should lead to a DENVER play or a PASS.

GL on your play,very surprised you see this as a live DOG.

I saw online rookie QB's on their first road start is close to 50% ATS. 

They have not done well winning SU but not so bad ATS.

JC, I have many other queries that favor TEN and only one that favors DEN - and that is fading TEN and it is only 3-8 ATS.  Normally I don't keep track of weak 3-8 queries, but the average ATS margin is -9.8, so I am keeping an eye on it.  It certainly won't keep me off TEN.

While queries are thought of as technical handicapping, I think of them as a super quick method of checking fundamental data.  For example, here is another query that likes weak TEN's strong passing DEF:

week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) < 217.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5

SU:  18-26 (-1.2,40.9%)

ATS:  30-13-1 (5.7,69.8%)

In week 1, Away Dogs that won 5 games or less last season but held their opponents to an average of 217 or less passing yards win SU 40.9% (a great value at +315) and cover 69.8% of the games.

I used 217.5 PY to produce a larger sample size.  This allowed a binomial test and the Z-value of 2.44 is at least somewhat encouraging.

TEN's passing defense last season was actually stronger than that:

week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) < 197.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5

SU:  8-8 (-1.9,50.0%)  A great value at +315!

ATS:  12-4 (5.8,75.0%)

I did not save that query because of the small sample size, but consider this:

week = 1 and AD and tpA(o:PY) > 197.5 and tpS(W) < 5.5

84 games (vs. 16 games), so TEN's passing DEF is much stronger than most teams that couldn't win 6 games in a season.  A team with an above-average passing DEF definitely qualifies as a live dog.

Good luck everybody.